A Fool's Errand: the Quest for Middle Relief Help on the Trade Market

With the news that Joba Chamberlain is most likely headed for Tommy John surgery, experts and laymen alike have lit up message boards and talk shows discussing what a potential solution might be.

The Yankees’ bullpen, considered a formidable strength at the start of the season, is now without its three primary setup men: Chamberlain, Soriano, and Feliciano. Chamberlain has a torn ligament in his elbow, and is done for the season. Soriano has been shut down for weeks, and has made zero progress. Feliciano may return in late July.

Of the three, two were free agent signings this offseason. Soriano signed for three years and $35 million. (For now, we will leave aside any discussion of how ill advised this signing was, and that Cashman did not want to sign Soriano.) Feliciano signed for two years and $8 million, with a team option for 2013.

People get injured – it happens. But Soriano was markedly ineffective in his time before his injury. In 16 games, Soriano had an ERA of 5.40, a 10/11 K/BB ratio, 15 hits in 15 innings, and a WHIP of 1.73. Soriano also managed to alienate himself by refusing to shoulder responsibility for performing poorly in his start in New York.

The troubles of Soriano and the injuries to both Feliciano and Soriano prove how much finding quality middle relief is a Russian roulette game. The calls for the Yankees to go out on the trade market and trade away valuable prospects for a rent-a-reliever should seem preposterous.

Most fans in this situation – especially at this time of year – demand the GM go trolling the trade market for a middle reliever. Most GMs, in fact, would be searching in a panic for a way to put a patch on the leaky bullpen. I am relieved to read Buster Olney’s report that Cashman adamantly refuses to trade Banuelos, Montero, or Betances.

Prospects are assets. Some will over-perform. Some will under-perform. Some will do exactly as expected. Midseason trades for a player, is almost always driven by the lack of long term availability of the player being traded for (from the buyer’s perspective). The player being traded for, then, absent an extension, is an asset of only short-term value.

Not only do they provide only short-term value; it is a risky, risky undertaking. I’m confident enough to say without supporting numbers that middle relievers are a crapshoot at best. Some blow your mind by over-performing (see, e.g., Tanyon Sturtze in 2005) whereas some are so under-whelming it is painful (see Rafael Soriano in 2011).

My question, then, is why would anyone even consider trading away incredibly valuable prospects who are (1) cheaper; (2) cheaper longer; (3) have higher upsides; and (4) are just overall more valuable? I get part of the argument – in the heat of a pennant race, some fans and GMs and owners feel more comfortable turning to a “reliable” arm.

The list, though, of reliable arms that have proven to be grossly unreliable is staggering. Eric Gagne, Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, and Kyle Farnsworth. There are actually too many to truly name.

My point is this. On an aging team, the best option is absolutely not to trade away your young talent. Bring in Kevin Whelan. Give him a shot. Bringing up a closer who is dominating AAA has as much a chance of success as trading for an expensive crapshoot does. Moreover, leading up to July 31 is when the price for middle relievers will be at a premium. If you buy, you will for sure overpay. Middle relievers do not provide enough value to risk giving away valuable long-term assets.

A Long time coming

I’m back!
Like Dr. Dre, or Eminem, I have returned to bring my six or seven loyal readers blog updates for the 2011 season. Unlike Dre or Eminem, I will not make claims that “this is the last time, really.” (See how I avoided making a Brett Farve joke there?)

Law school has ended and as I prepare for surgery and not the bar exam, I will have a lot of frigging free time on my hands. So those that care to read – I’ll be here. We’ve settled in to living in Massachusetts – now I look for employment. In my free time, though. I’ll be looking for six or seven outlets to alleviate nerves and to keep from going batshit crazy watching my girlfriend prepare for the bar. (Fingers crossed, but she’s brilliant – she’ll do well.)

It’s late May, so a lot has happened since the start of the season. I also have a lot of free time on my hands, so my seven loyal readers may get sick of longer, more involved posts. Hope you all enjoy.

Yankees Front Office Pros:
How brilliant does Brian Cashman look in his suggestion the team shy away from signing Soriano? Admittedly, he would look even smarter had he held his ground. Yet another grossly huge, unnecessarily large contract the team will come to regret soon, if they don’t already.

Yankees Front Office Cons:
Where to begin? Soriano. The treatment of the Posada situation. (Note the careful use of the word situation, and its inclusion. Not the front office’s treatment of Posada, but of the situation. Cashman, in all his middle school glory, went to reporters in the middle of the third inning to out Posada. Come on Cashman, you’re better than that.) The loss of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. And, perhaps related, the growing realization that the Yankees are less and less the proud image of George Steinbrenner, and more the weasely, rat-like, sneaking snake-like image of Swindel.

Every front office has at least one. Swindel has clearly mucked up many of the Yankees’ dealings going back as far as at least 2007. Fred Wilpon famously showed his true colors in a recent interview. Larry Lucchino is just an asshole.

In Boston, though, at least the benevolence of John Henry prevails. After the famous standoff in 2006 in which Cashman FINALLY got full control of baseball operations (why he needed 8 years to do so is beyond comprehension), Swindel has clearly slowly gathered more power for himself. As such, an organization once universally recognized for its class now appears, at times, to be shockingly classless.

Such horrendous policy is now driving away the free agents once assumed to end up in pinstripes. Mark my words, Cliff Lee was just the beginning. What player will want to sign a contract with a team that torpedoes the face of the franchise publically? Is Jeter worth his contract? Absolutely not. No one thinks so. But what I do know is this: neither is A-Rod. Neither is CC. Neither is Posada. You don’t all of a sudden draw an organizational line with the man baseball loves.
You simply don’t threaten to not negotiate with A-Rod if he opts out of his contract, then give him a raise when he does and there are no other offers. You certainly don’t then turn around and try to get your franchise player, the captain, of all people, to take a pay cut. Come on. You CERTAINLY don’t publically cajole and threaten him.

There may be those reading who are properly thinking “but Jeter’s agent started the public statements.” He did – but not the negative statements. He said the position the Yankees were taking was baffling. And it was. He didn’t tear into anyone. He didn’t name names.

Cashman did. He publically challenged Jeter to shop for other offers. He pointed out Jeter’s weaknesses. Stories were leaked that were not flattering to Jeter.

Listen – I’m not saying Cashman wasn’t right when he said those things. I don’t even blame him that much for wishing he could get a more value based contract for Jeter. I am, though, saying that every decision needs to be made in a business context with the big picture in mind. Those nonsense publicity stunts were made in a myopic fashion. What player is going to feel comfortable signing a long-term deal with the Yankees now? “If they treat the face of their franchise that way,” each prospective player will think, “how will they treat me?” Surely, each of these players asking himself that will determine whatever extra dollars the Yankees offer will not be worth being treated horribly.

Of course, the Cliff Lee saga was unfolding before most of this happened. This didn’t cause Lee to sign elsewhere. It may, however, act as a deterrent to future free agents. This problem could also potentially get worse. The episode with Posada and the Jeter contract fiasco are just the beginning. Think of what may happen should the front office stay on its course when the time comes for Jeter to change positions? (A change far in the future, as there is really no quality shortstop prospect in the system at all – watch the upcoming draft carefully.) Then there will be the eventual and inevitable parting of ways with Posada, Jeter, and Rivera. Hopefully the brass has learned a lesson or two since its disgraceful handling of the Joe Torre situation.

Stay tuned . . .
Over the next two days, I hope to cover an interesting discussion I had with my brother on scouting/signing power high school arms versus pitchers who throw with great movement.

Collection of Thoughts

[Author's note: re-introducing myself to the law school scene has caused me to miss many chances to comment on a lot of issues, such as Strasburg, the leaked financial statements, and call-ups. I will find a way to return to them more fully. For now, a collection of quick thoughts on several timely topics.]

Nayjer Morgan

I’m torn. Part of me is impressed that his manager stood so sternly behind him, especially after calling him classless after the incident with the catcher in St. Louis (we’ll call that “incident 1”). Players, especially young players, must appreciate that public show of support. I’d bet anything, though, that Riggleman ripped Morgan a new on privately. Four total incidents in a week? No way the team looks highly on that, or supports it in any way.

Wednesday’s fight didn’t need to happen. Lost on me is the Nationals’ substantiation of Morgan’s actions. Somewhere, in any article written, is a quote something along the lines of “fine, hit him once, but don’t hit him twice. Twice is overreaction.” I can’t type that without laughing. Morgan separated the kid shoulder on Tuesday, and he is out for the rest of the season. Morgan will be lucky if Florida doesn’t take straight aim at his head every time he steps in. Additionally as baffling, is Riggleman’s perplexing self-contradiction. Throw at him once, you only get once as retaliation. OK. But if that’s your party line, Jim, don’t then quote yourself as pacing the dugout after the first hit, taking a straw poll of the team to see if they want you to order retaliation. That fact alone shows Riggleman’s complete lack of grasp of the situation. You can’t claim the Marlins get only one retaliation, yet also have considered retaliation in response to their “one retaliation.” Thank goodness your players reined you in.

Morgan is a problem. A problem the front office should address immediately. He is spiraling out of control. He threw a baseball at a fan, and was suspended for seven games. While appealing the suspension, he ran into a catcher after the play was over, and the catcher was two steps past home plate out of the way. Then he bowled over another catcher, who had the ball, when if Morgan had slid he would have won his team the game. (Riggleman tried to justify that, after calling his first catcher bashing classless and benching Morgan for a game.) Then, last night. (For those who aren’t aware – the Marlins hit him in the third inning. Morgan then, with the score 14-3 Marlins, stole two bases on two pitches, violating unwritten rules of not being a dumbass and stealing while you are down by 11.) The Marlins, in response, felt they had to retaliate to his nonsense again. They threw behind him, and Morgan charged the mound. He subsequently was clotheslined, which he deserved, and probably got the first actual ass kicking in a baseball fight since Nolan Ryan got Ventura in a headlock and pounded him. Morgan deserved every second of it. As Morgan was exiting the field (after being tossed along with four others and the managers), his uniform shirt all but ripped off his body, he held “triumphant” fists over his head, while alternating that and pounding his chest. This kid is worse than Delmon Young when he threw his bat at the umpire for that called slider on a 3-2 count at Durham. Morgan was acting in a disgusting manner, that seems to illustrate he thinks he is above baseball’s rules.

While appealing a seven game suspension, Morgan took part in three more incidents for which he should be suspended. I am unfamiliar with the suspensions rules and how
they work. If I were in charge of doling out punishment, though, it would go like this:

The appeal of the seven game suspension would be automatically and summarily dismissed. It would stand at seven games, with an addition of two more for acting like an absolute jackass during the appeals process. He should get five games each for each catcher he hit. He should receive ten games for his disgusting self-promotion and congratulations after the fight. He should get five games for charging the mound and starting that fight. There is no doubt he took the first swing. Essentially- he should be suspended for the rest of the season. Young got 50 games for tossing his bat and reportedly making himself above the game. Is there any question this is what has happened with Morgan this week? Four incidents total, three while appealing a seven game suspension?! That takes all kinds of arrogance.

Were I in a front office position with Washington, I would fine him heavily, and require him to go to counseling in addition to MLB’s punishment. This young man is spiraling quickly out of control, and the team must intervene in order to help him grow to be a positive role model, and not an angry man.

Manny Ramirez

How there is any team in baseball who wants Ramirez to play on their roster at this point is baffling to me. Boston fans get the last laugh on L.A. though – L.A. thought they had won the lottery, but Boston knew better. (Frankly, so did most of baseball.) Now Manny takes his fatigue, tired knees, and lack of desire to play in the field to the most vocal manager in the major leagues.

Part of me is glad this happened, because you know the ensuing fireworks will be entertaining, if nothing else. Guillen is a man who called out Javy Vasquez publically for not being a big game pitcher, and publically bashed Nick Swisher’s performance on the team – and Nick is one of the nicest guys in baseball. So imagine what incredible drama will ensue when a loud-mouthed, uncensored manager has to deal with Manny’s nonsense. Terry Francona and Joe Torre, themselves too polite and classy to say anything publically, are probably laughing to tears on the phone with each other right now, just waiting to see what unfolds.

Me too. I don’t think Manny will make a difference with his slipping bat, and his personality will cause more hamr than good. The only good that will come of this trade is the money off the Dodgers’ books, and the hilarity bound to come up in the next four weeks. Forget pennant races – this will be like a baseball fans’ version of the Hills. All drama all the time. Hopefully it won’t force us to forget about the actual baseball being played.

Roger Clemens

When I began this blog, I promised myself I wouldn’t mention steroids once. I don’t believe it’s that much of a front office issue. But a friend asked my opinion on this matter. I am not angry, I am not shocked, I am only saddened. I weep for all of those who felt they have lost a boyhood hero. I am pained for those who loved Clemens’ grit, determination, and bulldog approach to baseball, who somehow feel those years are tainted, regardless of what team it was for.

Brett Gardner

Is it just me, or is Brett’s swing getting bigger, with more loop? It worries me.

Lester

Strangely ineffective down the end stretch. I haven’t seen him pitch recently, but the numbers and results look bad. Is this him giving up on a lost season?

Chapman

Buster Olney reports he hit 103 last night. He has faced six batters, struck out three (interestingly – all on sliders) and none have reached. A power arm, Chapman also reportedly boasts a more compact and shorter delivery. This has helped tremendously with location. I wonder if the less violent motion will also help keep his arm in better shape. Less violent movement means his shoulder and elbow overcompensate less. (When an arm pitches violently forward, it comes near to separation, the shoulder and elbow overcompensate by pulling back on the force driving it forward, which is what leads to shoulder problems and torn ucls. Think Strasburg.)

Yankees Tickets

On the Yankees home page today, there was an ad for 2010 season tickets with post season options still available. At some point, one has to wonder – have the Yankees priced themselves out of part of their market? Yankee stadium used to be so affordable. A new stadium will of course mean higher prices, but they did not react to economic times quick enough. There are still season tickets with post season options available? I think this means (1) they aren’t selling enough regular season tickers. No one is surprised by this, as there are always plenty of empty seats in the stadium when a game is on television; (2) they may be worried they are facing an Atlanta Braves like crisis. In the mid 2000’s. when the Braves were still making the post season, they had to offer buy one, get 2 tickets free for the next night ticket packages for the NLDS. The stands weren’t empty…but there sure weren’t full. Part of this could have been waning interest in baseball in Atlanta – they had done so well for so long that people just didn’t care about the post season.

Another potential problem was, though, that it could have been the fans saying “we’re sick of the first round, and you almost always lose. We’ll show up in the LCS when it gets exciting.” Given the recent history of post season struggles for the Yankees (save for last season of course) and the complete lack of confidence anyone has in their pitching staff aside from CC Sabathia right now – that may also be what the Yankees are facing. It will be interesting to see what happens down the stretch.

Plate Discipline

Two nights ago Robinson Cano added even more gaudy numbers to his already impressive season. Cano hit his fourth career grand slam (from the cleanup spot – and Seattle intentionally walked Mark Teixeira to pitch to Cano, a play so baffling you have to wonder why Daren Brown wasn’t fired on the spot) and two other RBI’s for a career high 6 RBI night. The slam was Cano’s 25th of the season.

Calling this season a breakout season for Cano is an understatement. Cano’s offensive numbers this year have exploded in a way not too many people believed they would. With the loss of Matsui, Cano was penciled in to the fifth spot during spring training. Given Cano’s track record at that point, many fans, coaches, sports writers and officials were understandably dubious.

Cano had (and still has) a sweet, beautiful swing. He showed serious power potential for a second baseman. But he had a horrible sense of the strike zone. For years, the scouting report on Cano was that he would chase. He’d chase early, he’d chase late. He chased more high fastballs than Kit Kellar. He chased low, and he would chase inside. He had the Vladimir Guerrero strike zone, except Cano did not make contact the way Vlad did.

Cano has made a concerted effort to be more disciplined at the plate. Before this year, he would often strike himself out by swinging at pitches wildly out of the zone. By tightening his understanding of the strike zone, Cano has seen improvements in many offensive categories.

Cano’s career average prior to this year was .307. He is currently hitting .323. In the early season Cano looked to vindicate all of the scouts and executives who said they expected him to win a batting title someday – he was in the top three for the first two months of the season.

Cano’s power numbers have improved as well. He has 25 home runs so far this year, which was his full season total last year. Cano’s slugging percentage, at .563, is more than 40 points higher than the next highest year in his career. Cano also has 87 RBIs. In the five hole, it is safe to assume he will surpass his previous high of 97.

The most impressive of all, though, is Cano’s increased plate discipline. Cano is not seeing many more pitches for plate appearance yet (4.3 this year to 4.5 last year), but he is being more intelligent about the pitches he swings at. Cano’s OBP is currently .388. That is 25 points above his previous best in 2006. Cano is up to 47 walks this year, far surpassing his previous high. Cano’s OPS is a stellar .958, nearly 60 points higher than his previous season best.

Since the start of spring training, both Kevin Long, the Yankees’ hitting coach, and Cano have been stressing an increased awareness of the strike zone, and laying off pitches out of it. The result of Cano’s newfound awareness of the strike zone is irrefutable. (It also helps that he has been squaring up the ball so well that several catchers have mentioned how much louder his contact is than any other hitters’.) In fact the results have been so positive it makes one wonder why this focus isn’t stressed more.

[As a brief side note, the Yankees are among the teams that are notorious for taking pitches, along with the Red Sox and Athletics, to name several. Games between the Yankees and Red Sox are so long (average 3:45) that it lead an umpire, Tim McClellan, to complain about the length of the games.]

To be fair to several front offices, this idea has been stressed before. The late ‘90’s Yankees were put together with a large focus on OBP, the idea being that if more players got on base, the team would score more runs. Moneyball documented the Oakland Athletics’ focus on OBP well – often times Oakland would scout players solely by tracking their OBP online, never seeing the player in person.

When the new ownership group of John Henry, Warner, and Lucchino took over in 2002, the front office determined that the focus of the farm system would be on taking walks and OBP. They made Ted William’s The Science of Hitting required reading for every player in the farm system. When I first read about this, it struck me as brilliant (as it still does). The minor league development programs are so essential to the growth of a player that instilling that type of focus and approach early on should be essential.

Players enter the minor league system (presumably) between the ages of 17 and 22. They are young, impressionable, and trying to catch up with a game that moves much faster to the players who are just leaving high school or college ball. (Baseball America ranks a top tier college program and competition as equivalent to a Double-A level of professional ball, so admittedly, there are different speeds right out of the gate.) These players, no matter the level from which they enter, still have a great deal to learn about the game. They should be taught as soon as possible to play the right way. Otherwise, they will just develop bad habits that will be harder to break to longer they are practiced – they will be so engrained the habits will be difficult to change.

The best minor league programs have a uniform approach to the game from top to bottom. It teaches the players how to play the major league game young, and it makes for an easier transition from level to level. Players will not have to adjust to a new approach, only a new level. It will help them stay within themselves and focus on a uniform approach.

Organizations with impressive farm systems take this approach. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim preach fundamental defense and taking the extra base when base running from Low-A on up. The Athletics preach taking walks from the very beginning, and even scout talent that naturally have adopted that approach for the draft. The Boston Red Sox may single-handedly keep the company that prints Williams’ book in business – they purchase a copy for each player who enters Boston’s minor league system each year. From Day One, hitters are taught Ted Williams’ basic rule for hitting: wait for a good pitch to hit.

The focus on developing an eye for the strike zone and selective hitting keeps the game simple. It also allows a solid foundation from which to build other skills. It also means that the players enter the big leagues with that skill (presumably, of course) rather than have to learn the strike zone while they adjust to better location from pitchers, sharper breaking stuff, and change ups. The change of speed is often one of the more difficult adjustments for a player to make from Triple-A to the majors.

Commissioner: Cap Anson or Jackie Robinson?

Author’s note: This is not really front office related, but I believe it is relevant and it was on my mind. There could be sweeping front office implications, though, if states other than Arizona pass laws as repugnant as this one.

Ozzie Guillen said last week that Major League Baseball treats its Latino players worse than it does its Asian players. Guillen cites many credible facts – he may have a good point. The more I thought about it, though, the more I realized that while Guillen is right, and right in bringing this issue to our attention, one major example of his point was left out of his discussion: Bud Selig’s brushing the Arizona All Star Game issue under the rug.

Arizona has passed a law that is, at best, abhorrent, and at worst, unconstitutional among other things. It institutionalizes racial profiling. It denies those of Latino descent many of their constitutional rights, among those their Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Amendment rights. Cops can literally question a person, detain them, and ask for their papers if the police officer suspects the person of being an illegal immigrant. This begs the question: how, exactly, does a police officer reach this conclusion? Will they be suspecting Caucasian persons they encounter as equally as they suspect Latino persons? Of course not. This law demands racial profiling, which means citizens of Latino descent are treated as less than equal.

Bud Selig has ignored the issue completely. When asked for a response, he cited the report that the number of minority players in baseball is growing. Mr. Selig, that is not the issue. And you should be ashamed of yourself for not taking a strong stance. 27.7% of the players are Latino. They would be instantly criminalized as they crossed the Arizona border for the All Star game.

Bud Selig’s tacit refusal to face this issue head on is embarrassing. A letter sent from several groups in Arizona should not be involved in a political issue. What sport have they been watching since the late 1800’s? Be it on the bad side or the good, baseball has been involved in the politics of race since its beginning.
As Cap Anson was organizing parts of baseball to kick African Americans out of baseball in 1887, the immigrant Caucasoid ethnic backgrounds were being integrated. Baseball became a game of Irish, Italian, and Polish players. (It is worth noting at this point that Cap Anson is in the Hall of Fame.) The story of Jackie Robinson is well known. He risked his life to break down barriers years before the country would mention the names Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. or Rosa Parks. Jackie Robinson’s number is universally retired in baseball. There is a Jackie Robinson game. There is a Roberto Clemente award. Baseball . . . is not without its role in politics, either local or national. Baseball simply cannot stand to bring thousands of jobs and all the revenue that comes with an All Star Game to a state that promotes legalized racism.

Ignoring this issue is Cap Anson, not Jackie Robinson. All the work the commissioner has done to integrate baseball and grow the number of minority players is for naught if he does not stand up for those players’ rights. They need to be able to work when they come into the United States. Letting Arizona open this door is bad enough—what if more states pass these laws? Do Latino players skip portions of road trips? The commissioner should stand by what he has claimed to do. Increasing the number of Latino players means absolutely nothing if you treat them as cheap immigrant labor that can be easily disposed of. The commissioner must play Jackie Robinson, not Cap Anson, and fight for the rights of the minority players he has fought so hard to bring into baseball.

Boston's Rotation -- A Crazy Idea

It is a strange season indeed when the Boston Red Sox outfield currently consists of Ryan Kalish, Eric Patterson, and J.D. Drew. This should change today, of course, as Jacoby Ellsbury is expected to be activated after going 7-14 in his rehab stint in Triple-A Pawtucket. The injury bug has hit Boston long and hard this year, with first baseman Kevin Youkilis being the most recent addition to the Disabled List. It has forced the team to play with an admirable grit for far too long. They do not complain; they approach each day expecting to win and they have admirable fortitude as they watch teammate after teammate fall.

Their combined resolution to come back healthy is also beyond admirable. I am at a loss for words to adequately express how blown away I am by Dustin Pedroia’s dedication. He wants to play so badly, he hits off a tee sitting on a chair, and takes ground balls on his knees. That’s dedication.

The pitching staff has suffered injury problems too. Daisuke Matsuzaka started the season on the disabled list, and didn’t make his first start until May 1st. He was also on the DL from June 8th to June 25th. Josh Beckett was on the DL from May 15th to July 23rd. Clay Bucholtz was on the DL from July 5th to July 21st. That Boston was carrying a sixth starter in Tim Wakefield proved to be very useful.

One of the most admirable aspects of Boston’s roster is their professionalism. They work hard each day, but in a town where media follows the team’s every move, clubhouse problems are kept in house. Wakefield was visibly upset when Matauzaka was activated and Wakefield was sent to the ‘pen. Wakefield has been a starter most of his career, and, perhaps understandably, got sent to the ‘pen for a pitcher who then struggled for the next month: 5.77 ERA in May, 21/25 BB/K ratio.

Wakefield’s commitment to the team, though, kept him from airing his feelings publically. It doesn’t take an expert to figure out Wake is pissed. He is the longest tenured member of the Red Sox. He has given his heart and soul to the team. He has done everything they have asked from him, including go to the bullpen in a year in which he clearly wants to start. Matsuzaka has turned it around a little, with a 3.64 ERA in July, but he has still struggled with his command, posting a 13/24 BB/K ratio. Beckett as abysmal in May, but has improved since coming back from the DL. Lester has improved to great from a slow start. Bucholtz has been fantastic. Lackey has been a huge disappointment. His numbers are not as bad as they could be, but they still so not sing “I am worth $18.7 million dollars.” His ERA on the season is 4.48, but only thanks to a two month run in June and July where he had a sub-4 ERA. He got lit up on Monday by the Indians, giving up 6 runs in 5.1 innings of work. Control has clearly been a problem all season – he has a 55/88 BB/K ratio. Wakefield hasn’t been great as a starter – he had a 28/59 BBK ratio. He posted a .270average against and .323 OBP against as a starter, versus .222 and .280 as a reliever. But he is furious.

Given the random struggles of three of the starting five, and Wakefield’s silent indignation, this post will float a fairly crazy, yet interesting-for-debate issue out there: Boston should use a six man rotation.

History:

If you are like me, you were born into the five man rotation generation, and for part of your life assumed it had always been a five man rotation. If you are like me, it is not until you started to do research recently that you found out the five man rotation came about much later than you expected.

By now, this year, unless you live under a rock, you know that this year is being called a sequel of the “Year of the Pitcher” in 1968. Perhaps the name that stands out most from the 1968 season is Bob Gibson. He was the king of kings that year, winning the ERA title with a scant 1.12. 28 of his 34 starts were complete games, 13 of those shutouts. The man who faced Gibson in game 1 of the ’68 World Series, Denny McLain, won 31 games (28 of them complete games), and the AL MVP and Cy Young awards. His ERA of 1.96 was fourth in the American League. Pitchers dominated that season so much so that in 1969, Major League Baseball lowered the mound from 15 inches to 10 inches above the field.

While the two pitchers with 28 complete games seem impressive, it is important to note, for history’s sake, that this was considered an era of declining complete games (one wonders what those players must consider the era of pitchers now . . .). After the mound was lowered, the other notable adjustment in pitching began in the young Mets organization. They had a very young rotation of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Gary Gentry, Jim McAndrew, and Nolan Ryan (perhaps you’ve heard of on or two of those guys?). Of the five, Koosman was the oldest at 26. The young group had a pitching coach, Rube Walker, who was worried about the young kids throwing off the lower mound often and how it would affect their arms. He devised a plan in which they would each pitch once every five days. The five-man rotation with each pitching on four days rest worked brilliantly. Analysts believe that the move to the five man rotation (among the first of its kind) was a large factor in the Mets’ turnaround that season, going from 73-89 in 1968 to 100-62 in 1969. The Mets went all the way to stun the heavily favored Baltimore Orioles in five games in the World Series that year. The rest of the baseball began to copy the Mets’ approach of five men and four days rest. It is now so common most teams would not consider ever returning to a four man rotation for any extended period of time.

Perhaps, in honor of the second year of the pitcher, another staff should consider making such a bold, ground-breaking move again.

The Idea:

This has been floated before (so I either join the ranks of the crazies, or the ranks of the people capable of thinking slightly differently). Boston should use a six man rotation.

Immediately, it solves the Wakefield problem. You don’t want a player’s potential tantrum to drive the organizational decisions, to be sure. If the team wins, however, when the player wins too, there is really no reason not to seriously consider it.

Beckett, who has only recently turned himself around from a bad year and a half (and there is no proof it will continue yet) is much better on long rest. Beckett, in fact, gets better as the rest period gets loner. On four days’ rest (this year), Beckett has a WHIP of 1.40 and an ERA of 5.70. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.19 and an ERA of 3.90. On six days rest (career), Becket has a WHIP of 1.13 and an ERA of 2.93. The only negative to the rest is that his K/BB ratio drops slightly with each day’s rest.

Lester is almost as good on five days rest ah he is on four, but not six days rest or more. On four days’ rest (this season), Lester has a WHIP of 1.16 and an ERA of 3.07. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.28 and an ERA of 3.10. On six days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.42 and an ERA of 3.94. His K/BB ratio drops slightly from four days to five days of rest, but drops dramatically (2.43-1.68) from five days to six.

Lackey is considered to be having a bit of an off season, but is dramatically better on five days rest than four. On four days rest (this season) Lackey has a WHIP of 1.53 and an ERA of 4.48. On five days rest (career), he has a WHIP of 1.25 and an ERA of 3.61. Lackey’s K/BB ratio also goes up slightly. On six days rest, he has a WHIP of 1.39 and an ERA of 4.44. His K/BB ratio also drops slightly.

Matsuzaka is a bit of an aberration. On four days rest (this season) he has a WHIP of 1.32 and an ERA of 3.96. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.37 and an ERA of 3.62. On six days rest, he has a WHIP of 1.25 and an ERA of 3.47. Matsuzaka’s K/BB ratio goes up slightly as his rest gets longer.

Bucholtz is having a bit of a breakout season, and is not better than his career numbers on long rest. On four days rest (this season) he has a WHIP of 1.23 and an ERA of 2.59. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.53 and an ERA of 3.71. On six days rest, Bucholtz has a WHIP of 1.40 and an ERA of 3.60. His K/BB ratio ticks down slightly from four days to five, then goes up from five days to six. Neither movement is significant.

Wakefield is slightly better on four days rest than five, but gets better at six. On four days rest (this season) Wakefield has a WHIP of 1.34 and an ERA of 5.54. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 5.54. His WHIP is a little higher, and his K/BB is 2.11 compared to 1.62 on five days rest. On six days rest, his WHIP is 1.39 and an ERA of 4.20. His K/BB drops slightly, to 1.52.

For several members of Boston’s staff, five days is much better. Beckett, Lackey, and even Matsuzaka can be counted in that group. Five days rest this season would admittedly be bad for Bucholtz, but sort of a wash for Wakefield and Lester.
Implementing a six man rotation would solve the potential ego and chemistry problems with Wakefield, who is visibly upset with the demotion. It would make Beckett and Lackey, both huge financial investments, better pitchers. It would seemingly make no difference with Lester and Wakefield (in terms of rest). It may cause Bucholtz to underperform a bit, but one is better than the three that could currently be performing better on longer rest. Also, it would probably knock off a start or two, which will be good to preserve the young arms of Lester and Bucholtz. Boston should consider implementing a six man rotation.

The Hellickson Dilemma

The Rays top pitching prospect announced his presence in the major leagues with a boom last night. And was promptly returned to Triple-A Durham. Jeremy Hellickson made his major league debut Monday night against the Minnesota Twins. Hellickson impressed in seven strong innings, allowing two earned runs with six strike outs and two walks.

Reports say that Hellickson commanded the edges of the plate with impressive consistency, and that his changeup proved to be the plus pitch it is, with the late fade accounting for three of his six strikeouts. Hellickson made hitters swing and miss a lot, actually, as ESPN stats and information reported that of his 64 strikes, 16 were swings and misses. That is 25 percent, and the major league average is 15.
Numbers such as Hellickson’s would seem to be enough to at least keep him around for the season, but Tampa’s rotation is pretty set at Garza, Shields, Price, Niemann and Davis. So Tampa sent him to Triple-A. He will almost assuredly get a call up again, the question is what role he will play.

Option 1:

Option 1 is to leave Hellickson at Triple-A for the season, and allow him to continue to blossom and grow as a starter. His fastball and changeup are excellent, but his curveball could stand to get sharper. He can control it adequately, but not great. It could also be sharper. Staying in Triple-A could help with this seasoning. The Triple-A season ends well before the MLB season, though, and Tampa would be very tempted to call him up for the stretch run after the September 1st roster expansion, especially if they believe Hellickson can help in a Division title race with the Yankees or Boston or both.
Which brings us to . . .

Option 2:

Option 2 would be to call Hellickson back up and use him in the bullpen. This is tempting, to be sure. He clearly has major league ready stuff. A very effective fastball and a plus changeup (that the Twins were 1-8 on in pitches that ended the at-bat) could make him a dominating 7th or 8th inning guy.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen is certainly not terrible, but there are several places it could be upgraded. The entire bullpen has a 3.14 ERA, but two relievers are at 4.50 or higher: Lance Cormier, 4.50; and Randy Choate, 5.88. Choate is a left-handed specialist though, so even with a plus tailing change-up, Hellickson is unlikely to fill that role (Left handers are hitting only .190 against Choate this season).
The addition of Qualls also solidifies the back end of the bullpen, so there may be no discernable role for Hellickson to play, but who would say no to such a solid arm? Plus, with the absolutely unpredictability of relievers, having another excellent pitcher to count on is always a plus.

Option 3:

Option 3 is finding a way for Hellickson to start. It would be foolish for Hellickson to take up a roster spot to only spot start. It would also be foolish for him to take up a roster spot for long relief or a potential 7th or 8th inning guy. HE is on a fantastic course as a starter. He should continue that course. Joba Chamberlain should be the cautionary tale for teams who bring up a starter and watch him have success as a reliever. It could mess up the kid big time. But more on that later.

Starting pitching is the most important aspect of the game. Pitching wins ballgames. Starting pitching controls, on average, the majority of innings pitched each game. That means a starting pitcher has, arguably, a larger impact on the majority of the game. While a reliever may come in and face a tight spot to get an out or three towards the end of the game, a starter might face four or five of those scenarios (admittedly of his own making). He faces more batters (ideally, of course), gets more outs (ideally, of course) and just is in charge of keeping the ball in the park and runners off base for longer than the bullpen each game (on average and ideally).

Simply put, having a good pitcher go six innings each time he pitches is more valuable than having him pitch one or two innings in each of his appearances. Some might contend that a pitcher could pitch four or five times in a week at one inning or so an appearance, that would be just about as much as his one start, but that is not true when stretched out over the course of a season, as the above statistics show. The "pressure situations" that many relievers face when they come in are valuable, to be sure, but keeping the other team off the board for six innings is more valuabel then keeping the other team off the board for one inning. If the starter doesn't do it, someone else has to. The best pitchers are starters and closers because those spots are the most valuable. And this is a dilemma because the rotation is full, and the closer spot is taken.

The five starters make this problem what it is. Tampa probably won’t go with a six man rotation, so barring injury, Hellickson probably won’t become a regular starter for Tampa this season. He should not go to the bullpen though. For one, where would they use him? Soriano is the closer. Benoit has an unbelievable K/9 inning rate of 12.78. Two other relievers, both currently on the DL, have K/9 rates above 9 as well. Dan Wheeler’s is 9.79 and Grant Balfour’s is 9.14. Randy Chaote’s is 9.00. Their three batting average against are .198, .218, and .247.

There is, of course, something to be said for a lot of options. Many dominating arms is good for a team, especially since relievers tend to be erratic. More important, though, is Hellickson’s long term development as a prospect. He is an incredibly valuable starting pitcher. Granted, some starters have handled the transition from starter to reliever back to starter very well. Phil Hughes was dominant last year out of the ‘pen, and is solid this year, even fantastic in the first half. Some, though, lack the mental toughness and professionalism to make the transition and not be affected. Joba is a prime example. A player can say all the right things: “whatever the team needs”; “I just want to help the team”; “Whatever it takes to get to the bigs.” The front office must have one eye on the future. Hellickson may have a positive effect in a handful of games down the stretch as a reliever. Messing with his head, though, can have long term effects. Are a handful of games in September and maybe October worth a year or two of setbacks?

Tampa Bay should either do nothing with Hellickson, calling him up for a spot start or two when he is needed, or to give an extra days rest to the Rays’ staff down the stretch, or find a way to fit him into the rotation now. Making him a reliever and then returning him to a starter role is too risky for a top pitching prospect. Relievers, and prospects, are erratic. Not everyone will be able to make the transition like David Price.
An Interesting Option:

Buster Olney reported this afternoon that the Washington Nationals placed Adam Dunn on waivers. He also said that the asking price for Dunn leading up to Saturday’s non-waiver trade deadline was enormous, and not dropping. The Rays were reportedly in on Dunn, and Dunn would be an upgrade at DH for the team. Hellickson’s success could inject some confidence into the Ray’s front office. The Nationals need young, solid pitchers to join Strasburg so he is not on an island. HE can only pitch every five days. Perhaps Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, the two back end starters, would be a good beginning to a trade package for Dunn. That would clear room for Hellickson in the rotation and upgrade the DH spot for the Rays, which they have struggled to fill productively all year.