Collection of Thoughts

[Author's note: re-introducing myself to the law school scene has caused me to miss many chances to comment on a lot of issues, such as Strasburg, the leaked financial statements, and call-ups. I will find a way to return to them more fully. For now, a collection of quick thoughts on several timely topics.]

Nayjer Morgan

I’m torn. Part of me is impressed that his manager stood so sternly behind him, especially after calling him classless after the incident with the catcher in St. Louis (we’ll call that “incident 1”). Players, especially young players, must appreciate that public show of support. I’d bet anything, though, that Riggleman ripped Morgan a new on privately. Four total incidents in a week? No way the team looks highly on that, or supports it in any way.

Wednesday’s fight didn’t need to happen. Lost on me is the Nationals’ substantiation of Morgan’s actions. Somewhere, in any article written, is a quote something along the lines of “fine, hit him once, but don’t hit him twice. Twice is overreaction.” I can’t type that without laughing. Morgan separated the kid shoulder on Tuesday, and he is out for the rest of the season. Morgan will be lucky if Florida doesn’t take straight aim at his head every time he steps in. Additionally as baffling, is Riggleman’s perplexing self-contradiction. Throw at him once, you only get once as retaliation. OK. But if that’s your party line, Jim, don’t then quote yourself as pacing the dugout after the first hit, taking a straw poll of the team to see if they want you to order retaliation. That fact alone shows Riggleman’s complete lack of grasp of the situation. You can’t claim the Marlins get only one retaliation, yet also have considered retaliation in response to their “one retaliation.” Thank goodness your players reined you in.

Morgan is a problem. A problem the front office should address immediately. He is spiraling out of control. He threw a baseball at a fan, and was suspended for seven games. While appealing the suspension, he ran into a catcher after the play was over, and the catcher was two steps past home plate out of the way. Then he bowled over another catcher, who had the ball, when if Morgan had slid he would have won his team the game. (Riggleman tried to justify that, after calling his first catcher bashing classless and benching Morgan for a game.) Then, last night. (For those who aren’t aware – the Marlins hit him in the third inning. Morgan then, with the score 14-3 Marlins, stole two bases on two pitches, violating unwritten rules of not being a dumbass and stealing while you are down by 11.) The Marlins, in response, felt they had to retaliate to his nonsense again. They threw behind him, and Morgan charged the mound. He subsequently was clotheslined, which he deserved, and probably got the first actual ass kicking in a baseball fight since Nolan Ryan got Ventura in a headlock and pounded him. Morgan deserved every second of it. As Morgan was exiting the field (after being tossed along with four others and the managers), his uniform shirt all but ripped off his body, he held “triumphant” fists over his head, while alternating that and pounding his chest. This kid is worse than Delmon Young when he threw his bat at the umpire for that called slider on a 3-2 count at Durham. Morgan was acting in a disgusting manner, that seems to illustrate he thinks he is above baseball’s rules.

While appealing a seven game suspension, Morgan took part in three more incidents for which he should be suspended. I am unfamiliar with the suspensions rules and how
they work. If I were in charge of doling out punishment, though, it would go like this:

The appeal of the seven game suspension would be automatically and summarily dismissed. It would stand at seven games, with an addition of two more for acting like an absolute jackass during the appeals process. He should get five games each for each catcher he hit. He should receive ten games for his disgusting self-promotion and congratulations after the fight. He should get five games for charging the mound and starting that fight. There is no doubt he took the first swing. Essentially- he should be suspended for the rest of the season. Young got 50 games for tossing his bat and reportedly making himself above the game. Is there any question this is what has happened with Morgan this week? Four incidents total, three while appealing a seven game suspension?! That takes all kinds of arrogance.

Were I in a front office position with Washington, I would fine him heavily, and require him to go to counseling in addition to MLB’s punishment. This young man is spiraling quickly out of control, and the team must intervene in order to help him grow to be a positive role model, and not an angry man.

Manny Ramirez

How there is any team in baseball who wants Ramirez to play on their roster at this point is baffling to me. Boston fans get the last laugh on L.A. though – L.A. thought they had won the lottery, but Boston knew better. (Frankly, so did most of baseball.) Now Manny takes his fatigue, tired knees, and lack of desire to play in the field to the most vocal manager in the major leagues.

Part of me is glad this happened, because you know the ensuing fireworks will be entertaining, if nothing else. Guillen is a man who called out Javy Vasquez publically for not being a big game pitcher, and publically bashed Nick Swisher’s performance on the team – and Nick is one of the nicest guys in baseball. So imagine what incredible drama will ensue when a loud-mouthed, uncensored manager has to deal with Manny’s nonsense. Terry Francona and Joe Torre, themselves too polite and classy to say anything publically, are probably laughing to tears on the phone with each other right now, just waiting to see what unfolds.

Me too. I don’t think Manny will make a difference with his slipping bat, and his personality will cause more hamr than good. The only good that will come of this trade is the money off the Dodgers’ books, and the hilarity bound to come up in the next four weeks. Forget pennant races – this will be like a baseball fans’ version of the Hills. All drama all the time. Hopefully it won’t force us to forget about the actual baseball being played.

Roger Clemens

When I began this blog, I promised myself I wouldn’t mention steroids once. I don’t believe it’s that much of a front office issue. But a friend asked my opinion on this matter. I am not angry, I am not shocked, I am only saddened. I weep for all of those who felt they have lost a boyhood hero. I am pained for those who loved Clemens’ grit, determination, and bulldog approach to baseball, who somehow feel those years are tainted, regardless of what team it was for.

Brett Gardner

Is it just me, or is Brett’s swing getting bigger, with more loop? It worries me.

Lester

Strangely ineffective down the end stretch. I haven’t seen him pitch recently, but the numbers and results look bad. Is this him giving up on a lost season?

Chapman

Buster Olney reports he hit 103 last night. He has faced six batters, struck out three (interestingly – all on sliders) and none have reached. A power arm, Chapman also reportedly boasts a more compact and shorter delivery. This has helped tremendously with location. I wonder if the less violent motion will also help keep his arm in better shape. Less violent movement means his shoulder and elbow overcompensate less. (When an arm pitches violently forward, it comes near to separation, the shoulder and elbow overcompensate by pulling back on the force driving it forward, which is what leads to shoulder problems and torn ucls. Think Strasburg.)

Yankees Tickets

On the Yankees home page today, there was an ad for 2010 season tickets with post season options still available. At some point, one has to wonder – have the Yankees priced themselves out of part of their market? Yankee stadium used to be so affordable. A new stadium will of course mean higher prices, but they did not react to economic times quick enough. There are still season tickets with post season options available? I think this means (1) they aren’t selling enough regular season tickers. No one is surprised by this, as there are always plenty of empty seats in the stadium when a game is on television; (2) they may be worried they are facing an Atlanta Braves like crisis. In the mid 2000’s. when the Braves were still making the post season, they had to offer buy one, get 2 tickets free for the next night ticket packages for the NLDS. The stands weren’t empty…but there sure weren’t full. Part of this could have been waning interest in baseball in Atlanta – they had done so well for so long that people just didn’t care about the post season.

Another potential problem was, though, that it could have been the fans saying “we’re sick of the first round, and you almost always lose. We’ll show up in the LCS when it gets exciting.” Given the recent history of post season struggles for the Yankees (save for last season of course) and the complete lack of confidence anyone has in their pitching staff aside from CC Sabathia right now – that may also be what the Yankees are facing. It will be interesting to see what happens down the stretch.

Plate Discipline

Two nights ago Robinson Cano added even more gaudy numbers to his already impressive season. Cano hit his fourth career grand slam (from the cleanup spot – and Seattle intentionally walked Mark Teixeira to pitch to Cano, a play so baffling you have to wonder why Daren Brown wasn’t fired on the spot) and two other RBI’s for a career high 6 RBI night. The slam was Cano’s 25th of the season.

Calling this season a breakout season for Cano is an understatement. Cano’s offensive numbers this year have exploded in a way not too many people believed they would. With the loss of Matsui, Cano was penciled in to the fifth spot during spring training. Given Cano’s track record at that point, many fans, coaches, sports writers and officials were understandably dubious.

Cano had (and still has) a sweet, beautiful swing. He showed serious power potential for a second baseman. But he had a horrible sense of the strike zone. For years, the scouting report on Cano was that he would chase. He’d chase early, he’d chase late. He chased more high fastballs than Kit Kellar. He chased low, and he would chase inside. He had the Vladimir Guerrero strike zone, except Cano did not make contact the way Vlad did.

Cano has made a concerted effort to be more disciplined at the plate. Before this year, he would often strike himself out by swinging at pitches wildly out of the zone. By tightening his understanding of the strike zone, Cano has seen improvements in many offensive categories.

Cano’s career average prior to this year was .307. He is currently hitting .323. In the early season Cano looked to vindicate all of the scouts and executives who said they expected him to win a batting title someday – he was in the top three for the first two months of the season.

Cano’s power numbers have improved as well. He has 25 home runs so far this year, which was his full season total last year. Cano’s slugging percentage, at .563, is more than 40 points higher than the next highest year in his career. Cano also has 87 RBIs. In the five hole, it is safe to assume he will surpass his previous high of 97.

The most impressive of all, though, is Cano’s increased plate discipline. Cano is not seeing many more pitches for plate appearance yet (4.3 this year to 4.5 last year), but he is being more intelligent about the pitches he swings at. Cano’s OBP is currently .388. That is 25 points above his previous best in 2006. Cano is up to 47 walks this year, far surpassing his previous high. Cano’s OPS is a stellar .958, nearly 60 points higher than his previous season best.

Since the start of spring training, both Kevin Long, the Yankees’ hitting coach, and Cano have been stressing an increased awareness of the strike zone, and laying off pitches out of it. The result of Cano’s newfound awareness of the strike zone is irrefutable. (It also helps that he has been squaring up the ball so well that several catchers have mentioned how much louder his contact is than any other hitters’.) In fact the results have been so positive it makes one wonder why this focus isn’t stressed more.

[As a brief side note, the Yankees are among the teams that are notorious for taking pitches, along with the Red Sox and Athletics, to name several. Games between the Yankees and Red Sox are so long (average 3:45) that it lead an umpire, Tim McClellan, to complain about the length of the games.]

To be fair to several front offices, this idea has been stressed before. The late ‘90’s Yankees were put together with a large focus on OBP, the idea being that if more players got on base, the team would score more runs. Moneyball documented the Oakland Athletics’ focus on OBP well – often times Oakland would scout players solely by tracking their OBP online, never seeing the player in person.

When the new ownership group of John Henry, Warner, and Lucchino took over in 2002, the front office determined that the focus of the farm system would be on taking walks and OBP. They made Ted William’s The Science of Hitting required reading for every player in the farm system. When I first read about this, it struck me as brilliant (as it still does). The minor league development programs are so essential to the growth of a player that instilling that type of focus and approach early on should be essential.

Players enter the minor league system (presumably) between the ages of 17 and 22. They are young, impressionable, and trying to catch up with a game that moves much faster to the players who are just leaving high school or college ball. (Baseball America ranks a top tier college program and competition as equivalent to a Double-A level of professional ball, so admittedly, there are different speeds right out of the gate.) These players, no matter the level from which they enter, still have a great deal to learn about the game. They should be taught as soon as possible to play the right way. Otherwise, they will just develop bad habits that will be harder to break to longer they are practiced – they will be so engrained the habits will be difficult to change.

The best minor league programs have a uniform approach to the game from top to bottom. It teaches the players how to play the major league game young, and it makes for an easier transition from level to level. Players will not have to adjust to a new approach, only a new level. It will help them stay within themselves and focus on a uniform approach.

Organizations with impressive farm systems take this approach. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim preach fundamental defense and taking the extra base when base running from Low-A on up. The Athletics preach taking walks from the very beginning, and even scout talent that naturally have adopted that approach for the draft. The Boston Red Sox may single-handedly keep the company that prints Williams’ book in business – they purchase a copy for each player who enters Boston’s minor league system each year. From Day One, hitters are taught Ted Williams’ basic rule for hitting: wait for a good pitch to hit.

The focus on developing an eye for the strike zone and selective hitting keeps the game simple. It also allows a solid foundation from which to build other skills. It also means that the players enter the big leagues with that skill (presumably, of course) rather than have to learn the strike zone while they adjust to better location from pitchers, sharper breaking stuff, and change ups. The change of speed is often one of the more difficult adjustments for a player to make from Triple-A to the majors.

Commissioner: Cap Anson or Jackie Robinson?

Author’s note: This is not really front office related, but I believe it is relevant and it was on my mind. There could be sweeping front office implications, though, if states other than Arizona pass laws as repugnant as this one.

Ozzie Guillen said last week that Major League Baseball treats its Latino players worse than it does its Asian players. Guillen cites many credible facts – he may have a good point. The more I thought about it, though, the more I realized that while Guillen is right, and right in bringing this issue to our attention, one major example of his point was left out of his discussion: Bud Selig’s brushing the Arizona All Star Game issue under the rug.

Arizona has passed a law that is, at best, abhorrent, and at worst, unconstitutional among other things. It institutionalizes racial profiling. It denies those of Latino descent many of their constitutional rights, among those their Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Amendment rights. Cops can literally question a person, detain them, and ask for their papers if the police officer suspects the person of being an illegal immigrant. This begs the question: how, exactly, does a police officer reach this conclusion? Will they be suspecting Caucasian persons they encounter as equally as they suspect Latino persons? Of course not. This law demands racial profiling, which means citizens of Latino descent are treated as less than equal.

Bud Selig has ignored the issue completely. When asked for a response, he cited the report that the number of minority players in baseball is growing. Mr. Selig, that is not the issue. And you should be ashamed of yourself for not taking a strong stance. 27.7% of the players are Latino. They would be instantly criminalized as they crossed the Arizona border for the All Star game.

Bud Selig’s tacit refusal to face this issue head on is embarrassing. A letter sent from several groups in Arizona should not be involved in a political issue. What sport have they been watching since the late 1800’s? Be it on the bad side or the good, baseball has been involved in the politics of race since its beginning.
As Cap Anson was organizing parts of baseball to kick African Americans out of baseball in 1887, the immigrant Caucasoid ethnic backgrounds were being integrated. Baseball became a game of Irish, Italian, and Polish players. (It is worth noting at this point that Cap Anson is in the Hall of Fame.) The story of Jackie Robinson is well known. He risked his life to break down barriers years before the country would mention the names Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. or Rosa Parks. Jackie Robinson’s number is universally retired in baseball. There is a Jackie Robinson game. There is a Roberto Clemente award. Baseball . . . is not without its role in politics, either local or national. Baseball simply cannot stand to bring thousands of jobs and all the revenue that comes with an All Star Game to a state that promotes legalized racism.

Ignoring this issue is Cap Anson, not Jackie Robinson. All the work the commissioner has done to integrate baseball and grow the number of minority players is for naught if he does not stand up for those players’ rights. They need to be able to work when they come into the United States. Letting Arizona open this door is bad enough—what if more states pass these laws? Do Latino players skip portions of road trips? The commissioner should stand by what he has claimed to do. Increasing the number of Latino players means absolutely nothing if you treat them as cheap immigrant labor that can be easily disposed of. The commissioner must play Jackie Robinson, not Cap Anson, and fight for the rights of the minority players he has fought so hard to bring into baseball.

Boston's Rotation -- A Crazy Idea

It is a strange season indeed when the Boston Red Sox outfield currently consists of Ryan Kalish, Eric Patterson, and J.D. Drew. This should change today, of course, as Jacoby Ellsbury is expected to be activated after going 7-14 in his rehab stint in Triple-A Pawtucket. The injury bug has hit Boston long and hard this year, with first baseman Kevin Youkilis being the most recent addition to the Disabled List. It has forced the team to play with an admirable grit for far too long. They do not complain; they approach each day expecting to win and they have admirable fortitude as they watch teammate after teammate fall.

Their combined resolution to come back healthy is also beyond admirable. I am at a loss for words to adequately express how blown away I am by Dustin Pedroia’s dedication. He wants to play so badly, he hits off a tee sitting on a chair, and takes ground balls on his knees. That’s dedication.

The pitching staff has suffered injury problems too. Daisuke Matsuzaka started the season on the disabled list, and didn’t make his first start until May 1st. He was also on the DL from June 8th to June 25th. Josh Beckett was on the DL from May 15th to July 23rd. Clay Bucholtz was on the DL from July 5th to July 21st. That Boston was carrying a sixth starter in Tim Wakefield proved to be very useful.

One of the most admirable aspects of Boston’s roster is their professionalism. They work hard each day, but in a town where media follows the team’s every move, clubhouse problems are kept in house. Wakefield was visibly upset when Matauzaka was activated and Wakefield was sent to the ‘pen. Wakefield has been a starter most of his career, and, perhaps understandably, got sent to the ‘pen for a pitcher who then struggled for the next month: 5.77 ERA in May, 21/25 BB/K ratio.

Wakefield’s commitment to the team, though, kept him from airing his feelings publically. It doesn’t take an expert to figure out Wake is pissed. He is the longest tenured member of the Red Sox. He has given his heart and soul to the team. He has done everything they have asked from him, including go to the bullpen in a year in which he clearly wants to start. Matsuzaka has turned it around a little, with a 3.64 ERA in July, but he has still struggled with his command, posting a 13/24 BB/K ratio. Beckett as abysmal in May, but has improved since coming back from the DL. Lester has improved to great from a slow start. Bucholtz has been fantastic. Lackey has been a huge disappointment. His numbers are not as bad as they could be, but they still so not sing “I am worth $18.7 million dollars.” His ERA on the season is 4.48, but only thanks to a two month run in June and July where he had a sub-4 ERA. He got lit up on Monday by the Indians, giving up 6 runs in 5.1 innings of work. Control has clearly been a problem all season – he has a 55/88 BB/K ratio. Wakefield hasn’t been great as a starter – he had a 28/59 BBK ratio. He posted a .270average against and .323 OBP against as a starter, versus .222 and .280 as a reliever. But he is furious.

Given the random struggles of three of the starting five, and Wakefield’s silent indignation, this post will float a fairly crazy, yet interesting-for-debate issue out there: Boston should use a six man rotation.

History:

If you are like me, you were born into the five man rotation generation, and for part of your life assumed it had always been a five man rotation. If you are like me, it is not until you started to do research recently that you found out the five man rotation came about much later than you expected.

By now, this year, unless you live under a rock, you know that this year is being called a sequel of the “Year of the Pitcher” in 1968. Perhaps the name that stands out most from the 1968 season is Bob Gibson. He was the king of kings that year, winning the ERA title with a scant 1.12. 28 of his 34 starts were complete games, 13 of those shutouts. The man who faced Gibson in game 1 of the ’68 World Series, Denny McLain, won 31 games (28 of them complete games), and the AL MVP and Cy Young awards. His ERA of 1.96 was fourth in the American League. Pitchers dominated that season so much so that in 1969, Major League Baseball lowered the mound from 15 inches to 10 inches above the field.

While the two pitchers with 28 complete games seem impressive, it is important to note, for history’s sake, that this was considered an era of declining complete games (one wonders what those players must consider the era of pitchers now . . .). After the mound was lowered, the other notable adjustment in pitching began in the young Mets organization. They had a very young rotation of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Gary Gentry, Jim McAndrew, and Nolan Ryan (perhaps you’ve heard of on or two of those guys?). Of the five, Koosman was the oldest at 26. The young group had a pitching coach, Rube Walker, who was worried about the young kids throwing off the lower mound often and how it would affect their arms. He devised a plan in which they would each pitch once every five days. The five-man rotation with each pitching on four days rest worked brilliantly. Analysts believe that the move to the five man rotation (among the first of its kind) was a large factor in the Mets’ turnaround that season, going from 73-89 in 1968 to 100-62 in 1969. The Mets went all the way to stun the heavily favored Baltimore Orioles in five games in the World Series that year. The rest of the baseball began to copy the Mets’ approach of five men and four days rest. It is now so common most teams would not consider ever returning to a four man rotation for any extended period of time.

Perhaps, in honor of the second year of the pitcher, another staff should consider making such a bold, ground-breaking move again.

The Idea:

This has been floated before (so I either join the ranks of the crazies, or the ranks of the people capable of thinking slightly differently). Boston should use a six man rotation.

Immediately, it solves the Wakefield problem. You don’t want a player’s potential tantrum to drive the organizational decisions, to be sure. If the team wins, however, when the player wins too, there is really no reason not to seriously consider it.

Beckett, who has only recently turned himself around from a bad year and a half (and there is no proof it will continue yet) is much better on long rest. Beckett, in fact, gets better as the rest period gets loner. On four days’ rest (this year), Beckett has a WHIP of 1.40 and an ERA of 5.70. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.19 and an ERA of 3.90. On six days rest (career), Becket has a WHIP of 1.13 and an ERA of 2.93. The only negative to the rest is that his K/BB ratio drops slightly with each day’s rest.

Lester is almost as good on five days rest ah he is on four, but not six days rest or more. On four days’ rest (this season), Lester has a WHIP of 1.16 and an ERA of 3.07. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.28 and an ERA of 3.10. On six days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.42 and an ERA of 3.94. His K/BB ratio drops slightly from four days to five days of rest, but drops dramatically (2.43-1.68) from five days to six.

Lackey is considered to be having a bit of an off season, but is dramatically better on five days rest than four. On four days rest (this season) Lackey has a WHIP of 1.53 and an ERA of 4.48. On five days rest (career), he has a WHIP of 1.25 and an ERA of 3.61. Lackey’s K/BB ratio also goes up slightly. On six days rest, he has a WHIP of 1.39 and an ERA of 4.44. His K/BB ratio also drops slightly.

Matsuzaka is a bit of an aberration. On four days rest (this season) he has a WHIP of 1.32 and an ERA of 3.96. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.37 and an ERA of 3.62. On six days rest, he has a WHIP of 1.25 and an ERA of 3.47. Matsuzaka’s K/BB ratio goes up slightly as his rest gets longer.

Bucholtz is having a bit of a breakout season, and is not better than his career numbers on long rest. On four days rest (this season) he has a WHIP of 1.23 and an ERA of 2.59. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.53 and an ERA of 3.71. On six days rest, Bucholtz has a WHIP of 1.40 and an ERA of 3.60. His K/BB ratio ticks down slightly from four days to five, then goes up from five days to six. Neither movement is significant.

Wakefield is slightly better on four days rest than five, but gets better at six. On four days rest (this season) Wakefield has a WHIP of 1.34 and an ERA of 5.54. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 5.54. His WHIP is a little higher, and his K/BB is 2.11 compared to 1.62 on five days rest. On six days rest, his WHIP is 1.39 and an ERA of 4.20. His K/BB drops slightly, to 1.52.

For several members of Boston’s staff, five days is much better. Beckett, Lackey, and even Matsuzaka can be counted in that group. Five days rest this season would admittedly be bad for Bucholtz, but sort of a wash for Wakefield and Lester.
Implementing a six man rotation would solve the potential ego and chemistry problems with Wakefield, who is visibly upset with the demotion. It would make Beckett and Lackey, both huge financial investments, better pitchers. It would seemingly make no difference with Lester and Wakefield (in terms of rest). It may cause Bucholtz to underperform a bit, but one is better than the three that could currently be performing better on longer rest. Also, it would probably knock off a start or two, which will be good to preserve the young arms of Lester and Bucholtz. Boston should consider implementing a six man rotation.

The Hellickson Dilemma

The Rays top pitching prospect announced his presence in the major leagues with a boom last night. And was promptly returned to Triple-A Durham. Jeremy Hellickson made his major league debut Monday night against the Minnesota Twins. Hellickson impressed in seven strong innings, allowing two earned runs with six strike outs and two walks.

Reports say that Hellickson commanded the edges of the plate with impressive consistency, and that his changeup proved to be the plus pitch it is, with the late fade accounting for three of his six strikeouts. Hellickson made hitters swing and miss a lot, actually, as ESPN stats and information reported that of his 64 strikes, 16 were swings and misses. That is 25 percent, and the major league average is 15.
Numbers such as Hellickson’s would seem to be enough to at least keep him around for the season, but Tampa’s rotation is pretty set at Garza, Shields, Price, Niemann and Davis. So Tampa sent him to Triple-A. He will almost assuredly get a call up again, the question is what role he will play.

Option 1:

Option 1 is to leave Hellickson at Triple-A for the season, and allow him to continue to blossom and grow as a starter. His fastball and changeup are excellent, but his curveball could stand to get sharper. He can control it adequately, but not great. It could also be sharper. Staying in Triple-A could help with this seasoning. The Triple-A season ends well before the MLB season, though, and Tampa would be very tempted to call him up for the stretch run after the September 1st roster expansion, especially if they believe Hellickson can help in a Division title race with the Yankees or Boston or both.
Which brings us to . . .

Option 2:

Option 2 would be to call Hellickson back up and use him in the bullpen. This is tempting, to be sure. He clearly has major league ready stuff. A very effective fastball and a plus changeup (that the Twins were 1-8 on in pitches that ended the at-bat) could make him a dominating 7th or 8th inning guy.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen is certainly not terrible, but there are several places it could be upgraded. The entire bullpen has a 3.14 ERA, but two relievers are at 4.50 or higher: Lance Cormier, 4.50; and Randy Choate, 5.88. Choate is a left-handed specialist though, so even with a plus tailing change-up, Hellickson is unlikely to fill that role (Left handers are hitting only .190 against Choate this season).
The addition of Qualls also solidifies the back end of the bullpen, so there may be no discernable role for Hellickson to play, but who would say no to such a solid arm? Plus, with the absolutely unpredictability of relievers, having another excellent pitcher to count on is always a plus.

Option 3:

Option 3 is finding a way for Hellickson to start. It would be foolish for Hellickson to take up a roster spot to only spot start. It would also be foolish for him to take up a roster spot for long relief or a potential 7th or 8th inning guy. HE is on a fantastic course as a starter. He should continue that course. Joba Chamberlain should be the cautionary tale for teams who bring up a starter and watch him have success as a reliever. It could mess up the kid big time. But more on that later.

Starting pitching is the most important aspect of the game. Pitching wins ballgames. Starting pitching controls, on average, the majority of innings pitched each game. That means a starting pitcher has, arguably, a larger impact on the majority of the game. While a reliever may come in and face a tight spot to get an out or three towards the end of the game, a starter might face four or five of those scenarios (admittedly of his own making). He faces more batters (ideally, of course), gets more outs (ideally, of course) and just is in charge of keeping the ball in the park and runners off base for longer than the bullpen each game (on average and ideally).

Simply put, having a good pitcher go six innings each time he pitches is more valuable than having him pitch one or two innings in each of his appearances. Some might contend that a pitcher could pitch four or five times in a week at one inning or so an appearance, that would be just about as much as his one start, but that is not true when stretched out over the course of a season, as the above statistics show. The "pressure situations" that many relievers face when they come in are valuable, to be sure, but keeping the other team off the board for six innings is more valuabel then keeping the other team off the board for one inning. If the starter doesn't do it, someone else has to. The best pitchers are starters and closers because those spots are the most valuable. And this is a dilemma because the rotation is full, and the closer spot is taken.

The five starters make this problem what it is. Tampa probably won’t go with a six man rotation, so barring injury, Hellickson probably won’t become a regular starter for Tampa this season. He should not go to the bullpen though. For one, where would they use him? Soriano is the closer. Benoit has an unbelievable K/9 inning rate of 12.78. Two other relievers, both currently on the DL, have K/9 rates above 9 as well. Dan Wheeler’s is 9.79 and Grant Balfour’s is 9.14. Randy Chaote’s is 9.00. Their three batting average against are .198, .218, and .247.

There is, of course, something to be said for a lot of options. Many dominating arms is good for a team, especially since relievers tend to be erratic. More important, though, is Hellickson’s long term development as a prospect. He is an incredibly valuable starting pitcher. Granted, some starters have handled the transition from starter to reliever back to starter very well. Phil Hughes was dominant last year out of the ‘pen, and is solid this year, even fantastic in the first half. Some, though, lack the mental toughness and professionalism to make the transition and not be affected. Joba is a prime example. A player can say all the right things: “whatever the team needs”; “I just want to help the team”; “Whatever it takes to get to the bigs.” The front office must have one eye on the future. Hellickson may have a positive effect in a handful of games down the stretch as a reliever. Messing with his head, though, can have long term effects. Are a handful of games in September and maybe October worth a year or two of setbacks?

Tampa Bay should either do nothing with Hellickson, calling him up for a spot start or two when he is needed, or to give an extra days rest to the Rays’ staff down the stretch, or find a way to fit him into the rotation now. Making him a reliever and then returning him to a starter role is too risky for a top pitching prospect. Relievers, and prospects, are erratic. Not everyone will be able to make the transition like David Price.
An Interesting Option:

Buster Olney reported this afternoon that the Washington Nationals placed Adam Dunn on waivers. He also said that the asking price for Dunn leading up to Saturday’s non-waiver trade deadline was enormous, and not dropping. The Rays were reportedly in on Dunn, and Dunn would be an upgrade at DH for the team. Hellickson’s success could inject some confidence into the Ray’s front office. The Nationals need young, solid pitchers to join Strasburg so he is not on an island. HE can only pitch every five days. Perhaps Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, the two back end starters, would be a good beginning to a trade package for Dunn. That would clear room for Hellickson in the rotation and upgrade the DH spot for the Rays, which they have struggled to fill productively all year.

Strasburg - was the DL overkill?

Well, it’s happened; the first of many heart palpitations for the ever growing body of Nationals fans (I think they may be 50 or 60 now!). Stephen Strasburg is on the DL with “shoulder stiffness.” This move is the result of an MRI showing slight inflammation in Strasburg’s pitching shoulder. During his pregame warm up for his scheduled start on Tuesday, Strasburg said that he “couldn’t get warm. The Nationals shut him down immediately and slipped Miguel Batista into the starting role that night. Strasburg then went to get the MRI.

Saying a 22 year old professional pitcher has inflammation in his shoulder is like saying the sky is blue, or Cubs fans are masochists. Strasburg, though, as the prodigal son messiah Tim Tebowesque Moses descended from the baseball heavens meant to lead the Nationals to glory (but only after their stadium cracks in half and rebuilds itself three days later), must be protected.

Even before this, the front office made it clear Strasburg is on an innings limit this season. It includes his work from the minor leagues (55.1) and the majors, 54.1. The limit imposed on Strasburg is believed to be 150-160, so some people may argue that missing two starts on the DL might not be the worst thing.

The Nationals are not a great team, and Strasburg has already become the face of the franchise. He is a ray of light to all 45 of the season ticket holders in Washington. Well, him and Bryce Harper. The front office is well aware of the fans’ expectations of growing talent now that Strasburg is signed and pitching (no small feat considering he was the first pick and was being “advised” by Scott Boras). They cannot ruin his arm. Hence the total overkill when leaning towards safety.
The stories of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are too fresh in the baseball fans’ memory for the Nationals to be too cavalier with Strasburg. He has a good frame, but he has a violent motion. A stint on the 15 day DL, though, especially in light of the fact that Strasburg said he felt great the next day, seems like overkill.

Thankfully, we have two days until the trade deadline, so what I anticipate won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. As always, there will be a fight about the treatment of starting pitchers. As always, the old timers will say that pitchers should finish what they start. The younger, more stat based minds in the game will discuss the clear decline for almost every pitcher after 100 pitches, and how our scientific understanding of what the body goes through has changed. I think this time, the fight might pack more punch.

I think that the perfect storm has been brewing. For one, this 15 day DL stint is embarrassing. But let’s look past that. You have the top pick in the draft making an immediate, record setting difference for a club that has as much of a pulse as Vice President Dick Cheney.

The Context:

1.Baseball’s "Savior"

Perhaps you’ve heard – baseball has taken a bit of an image hit over the past several years. I think it might have something to do with lower home run totals…no that can’t be it. The TV ratings for Strasburg’s pro debut were one of the highest of the season. He has us excited to watch baseball again. Only this time, the pitchers are having their day, and the fireballers capture our imagination. No one plays catch in his back yard and imagines himself a crafty soft tossing righty. (Though we might be better off for it if more kids wanted to pitch like Greg Maddux.) The kids imagine themselves as Nolan Ryan or John Lester; blowing people away with ease.

Strasburg is phenomenally exciting to watch. He has fans interested in pitching again. He throws fireballs, and his curve and changeup are so devastating even a layperson can tell that they are filthy. Strasburg gets people who aren’t baseball fans to watch and enjoy it. The Nationals’ front office feels tremendous pressure to protect one of baseball’s most prized assets.

Strasburg didn’t get a chance to stretch his arm out. The progression of the minor league organizations is designed to give players just out of high school and college to gradually get better, build schools, but also to slowly get used to a longer season.

Tom Glavine faced this same problem his rookie year. He felt some shoulder soreness and stiffness early on his first preseason in Bradenton. Johnny Sain, a roving pitching instructor for the Braves (and immortalized in Jim Bouton’s Ball Four as the best pitching instructor Bouton had ever had), told Glavine he wasn’t going to shut it down—he made Glavine ramp it up a little bit. Sain had Glavine throw long toss for the next ten days in a row. Glavine felt soreness the first few days, but he was pain free by the end of the sixth day. By the tenth, Glavine was throwing 50 throws from 120 feet. Glavine was pain free for the rest of the season.

The notion of a pitching coach recommending that now is laughable. The coach would fired, if not shot, on the spot.

2.Poor handling of pitching Assets.

Some front offices go so far out of their way to protect their pitching assets that they may have ruined them. I have all the respect in the world for the Yankees front office, but need to use them here as an example of “room for improvement.”
Pitchers are creatures of habit if they are starters, and need to have a defined role if they are relievers. Joba Chamberlain was lights out as a reliever in 2007.

Then, the front office messed with his role several times, having him prepare as a stater then making him a reliever. Then he prepared as a starter and WAS a starter, but they screwed with his starts in the last five weeks of the season. No wonder the kid has lost confidence. Now, after two years of being screwed with, he is back in the bullpen and his numbers are suffering.

This is not to say that Chamberlain would have continued to be as for sure lights out as he was in 2007. I do think, however, that it would be more likely had the Yankees had a defined role and path for Chamberlain from the beginning.
Given those troubles, the “certainty” that innings limits must be imposed is not as infallible as it seemed a year ago. The blue print must have, at the very least, a defined path for the asset, so the true value and potential of the asset can be reached.

3.A Decade of Dominance

When I think the 90’s, I think two things: Yankees and Braves. The old baseball adage that pitching wins championships, or good pitching beats good pitching, was never more evident as it was when the Braves were stringing together that incredible run of 14 straight division titles. Leo Mazzone developed Tom Glavine, Steve Avery and John Smoltz in those early years. Greg Maddux also credits Mazzone for Maddux’s continued success in those years and later too.

The Braves faced unending arm injuries in the late 80’s. In an organizational meeting, Mazzone, who was a pitching instructor in the lower levels, presented a novel approach to a pitching regimen. Rather than playing long toss once and having one bullpen, the pitchers would throw a little more, but with a little less edge. Each starter would pitch two bullpen sessions, one at around 70%, the other around 80%. This allowed them to keep their arm stretched and loose, but also strong. It also allowed them to focus on feeling the seams and moving the ball, not just hurling it in there.

Throughout the 90’s and into the 00’s, this program not only worked for the core of the Brave’s staff, it also helped to revive some pitchers’ careers. Jaret Wright enjoyed resurgence after signing a one year contract with the Braves. He swore by Mazzone’s approach.

4.Everything’s bigger in Texas

While much of the league compiles data, counts innings and pitches like CPAs and looks for new brilliant ways to be called too progressive for baseball, one of the greatest pitchers of all time is on the cusp of purchasing his old baseball team. Nolan Ryan and his pitching coach, Mike Maddux, each believe in a more old school approach.

In 2008, Texas’s starting rotation pitched the fewest innings in the majors. They needed to improve. Nolan and Maddux decided that starting in spring training, pitchers would have tremendous focus on running to build legs and long toss and live batting practice to build arm strength.

Power pitchers such as Ryan use their legs to “drop and drive”, providing much of the power, and taking some of the strain off the shoulder. Running sprints and poles helps to build leg strength to do that. Long toss, especially straight days, builds arm strength while allowing pitchers to work on different grips. Pitching live batting practice also helps build up arm strength.

As applied to the Texas Rangers, this program took the Rangers from the least innings pitched from a starting staff to one that competed in innings pitched, taking pressure off the bullpen and proving that the return to old conditioning could be successful too.

Given all of those factors, once the baseball world is done talking trades, I think it might ignite an interesting debate. You know the baseball world can’t go four says without obsessing over Strasburg.

Trade Deadline Talk

As the non-waiver trade deadline approaches, speculation will run wild about which teams are buying, which teams are selling, and who is going to be traded. The Yankees have the best record in baseball, and it is safe to assume they will be buying. Speculation several weeks ago had Cashman shopping for another bat, but with the resurgence of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, that now seems less likely.
Given Joba Chamberlain’s recent struggles, and the overall lack on confidence in parts of the bullpen this season, a bullpen arm is a likely target. The most interesting thing, though, may be the clear sign of lack of faith in all five starters the Cliff Lee trade talk shows. (Given AJ Burnett’s tantrum this afternoon, forcing him to leave after 2 + innings, the lack of predictability was only further entrenched.) This post will speculate on potential targets for the trade deadline. Where possible, I may amuse myself with speculation of who may be traded. I warn you, though, I have no experience, so be prepared to laugh. Some may be close, some may just be laugh till you cry preposterous. Whichever they become for you, I hope you enjoy.

Bullpen Fix?
Relievers are generally inconsistent. The bridge to Rivera needs to be firm for the Yankees front office and Yankees fans to feel safe with a lead, and it is not, at the moment, exactly the model of consistency. Joba has struggled to hold leads recently. Given the way that he has been tossed back and forth from the ‘pen to a starter and back to the ‘pen again, I am not surprised. A young kid can say all he wants about doing whatever the team needs him to do, but this jostling has clearly affected his confidence. And who wouldn’t feel the same way?
If I were Cashman, I would stay within the organization. Relievers are tough to nail down. They are often inconsistent, and a good year once, or in one park, does not promise that reliever will remain good at his role for any period of time. Mid innings relievers and set-up men are often sold at enormously high prices at the trade deadline. This is not due to talent, but due to market economics. Teams in contention might feel the need to shore up the bullpen, and teams with solid relievers who are sellers take advantage of a pressing need by hiking up prices by way of prospects. If there is a way for a bullpen to be bolstered by looking within the organization, it should be done. (1) It is manageable in terms of price. It costs nothing, as there is no trade. As the player being brought up is likely already on the 40 man roster, it also costs nothing in terms of payroll. (2) While relievers are unpredictable, using a man form within the system makes it less unpredictable. The layer development staff and internal scouting departments all have a good handle on the player’s capabilities, weaknesses, and how to fix him when something goes wrong.

Phil Hughes:
This is a terrible idea. There is talk that some in the front office might want to try the same thing with Phil Hughes. Hughes has an innings limit, speculated to be around 180, which will approach by seasons’ end. The thought is that moving Hughes to the ‘pen will ensure he does not reach that limit. The same officials believe that Hughes will again be the dominant reliever he was last year.
Why this is a terrible ideal:
Hughes has been an incredible starter this year. He is 11-2, one of three Yankee starters with a good chance at winning 20 games. His WHIP is good, at 1.18. He has 91 strikeouts in 101 innings, with only 29 BB. His batting average against is .239, and his ERA is 3.65. Hughes has shown increased command of his fastball, particularly his cutter, and he has returned to using the 2-seamer he used so well in 2007 before he went down with injury. His curve remains above average if not good, and his changeup has come a long way. It is now almost a plus major league pitch.
When discussing Hughes, it is often forgotten that he is still quite young. Hughes is still only 24 and still developing. This year has been impressive; there is no question about it. Hughes has shown that he is capable of being the mid to front starter that Cashman and the Yankees believed he could be when they refused to trade him for Santana. But he still has a ways to go. Moving Hughes to the ‘pen and subjecting him to the same undefined role nonsense as Chamberlain would risk ruining all that Hughes has accomplished in the last two years.
The innings limit is a concern for me only when it gets to the end of the year, or the post season. Hughes has around 80 innings left if the guesses on his limit are accurate. That should last him, however, until September 1st, when rosters expand. While it would be ideal to have Hughes in the postseason rotation if he continues to pitch this way, only four starters are needed in the postseason, so the rotation could conceivably survive, though not in its strongest possible form (based on performance in the season thus far).
Hughes is a starter and will be a starter next year. He should stay a starter to make it easier on everyone, especially himself and the pitching coaches. Why try and toss a player still developing between two jobs? It takes long enough to learn one, let alone two.

My Pick: Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo spent parts of 2008 and 2009 with the Yankees. He struggled with some injury problems, but has seen an incredible resurgence this year. So far this year he has appeared in 40 games pitching 45.2 innings. He has allowed only 25 hits. His ERA is 0.99. Albaladejo’s BAA is .156. He leads all of AAA in saves with 30. His BB/K ratio is a very impressive 12/60. His command has clearly improved. With numbers like those, in fact, one wonders why he hasn’t received a call up already. Given his save numbers, Albaladejo clearly has no problem pitching in pressure packed situations. The Yankees should turn to him rather than trade should Joba lose his 8th inning job.

The Starter Situation
Don’t get me wrong – the Yankees’ staff has been impressive so far this season. They are, in fact, in the top three in the American League in ERA, quality starts, WHIP, K/9, and batting average against. But Javier Vazquez is a question mark, even with his recent improvements. AJ Burnett hurt his hand tonight throwing a tantrum in the clubhouse after the second inning. And the Cliff Lee trade proved that some in the front office don’t have full confidence in the staff, or at the very least that the Yankees know they can upgrade; even on an already impressive staff. Here, in no particular order, are the potential candidates the Yankees may target in the next two weeks:

Ricky Nolasco:
The word out tonight is that the Yankees had scouts at the Florida-Arizona game a week ago in which Nolasco faced Dan Haren. It is not clear which pitcher they were there to scout; it may have been both.
Nolasco is a strikeout pitcher, which is always a plus in Yankee Stadium. The ball can fly there, so anyone who can keep the ball on the ground or off bats is going to do pretty well. Nolasco is known to be a little inconsistent at times – he can struggle with his mechanics (and control, of course, as a result) and he is also injury prone. Nolasco has mostly projected as a mid-rotation starter with a plus fastball, a strong slider (that interestingly enough he holds as a hybrid – Mike Mussina’s knucklecurve grip, but on the seams the way Andy Pettitte holds his curve) and a decent change and splitter.
This year, Nolasco has not been plagued by the control problems he has been known to have. His K/BB ratio is an impressive 102/23. The rest of his numbers, though, are more pedestrian. In 116.0 innings pitched he has allowed 128 hits. His BAA is .280 and his WHIP is 1.30. Nolasco has also been plagued a bit by homeritis – he has given up 20 this season. His ERA is 4.66.
Nolasco is young, though, and relatively cheap, money wise, at least. He is arbitration eligible the next two years. For 2010, he in on a one year contract worth $3.8 million. Yankee manager Joe Girardi is very familiar with Nolasco – he managed him in 2006.
At four games under .500, and 9.5 games back in the NL East race, the Marlins may well be sellers leading up to the deadline. It would certainly be a feat to overcome the Phillies Braves and Mets to become contenders. Uggla will certainly be the most sought-after player on the Marlins, on whom they would get an excellent return. Cantu may also draw some interest. A trade with the Yankees, though, for Nolasco, may center around Montero. I say this not because Montero may be the centerpiece of almost any trade (though that may well be true) but because it makes perfect sense for the Marlins.
The Marlins lack a good major league catcher. Ronny Paulino does not project as more than a solid backup catcher. His bat is decent, showing some power. He has solid defensive skills, but there are questions about his ability to throw out runners. Montero would be a significant upgrade, even with his defensive questions. A team as young as Florida would not be crippled by a young developing catcher in the second half of this season. It would ac tually be perfect for Montero to get used to calling a big league game, and the Florida pitching staff, to prime the team for more success next year in a full season. Such a trade would obviously involve more pieces (perhaps Slade Heathcott? Florida lacks any depth at left field. Though Heathcott is a center fielder, he could surely add depth to an outfield depth chart, ot move himself), Montero is a solid centerpiece.

Dan Haren
Dan Haren is going to be one of the hottest topics leading to the deadline, and Arizona will take advantage. Haren is a great competitor, who will most likely enjoy the chance to play on a winning team; one that is not 19.5 games out of first place.
Haren rarely walks batters. His K/BB rate this season is 27/133. Given his impeccable control, he is prone to get hit, and hit hard. This is because he is always so close to the plate. This season he has given up 155 hits in 135 innings pitched, 21 of those being home runs. His WHIP is 1.35, his BAA is .287, and his ERA is 4.60. Despite all that, Haren is now one of the most sought after pitchers with Cliff Lee off the market. Rumor has it, though, that Arizona would have to be “blown away” by an offer. He may not be worth the price in prospects. The Detroit Tigers seem to be the most mentioned destination for Haren. Given his prowess, Haren is still surprisingly affordable at $8.25 million. He is under contract for the next two years at $12.5 million each, with a club option in 2013 for $15.5 million. This incredibly cheap contract for someone of Haren’s talent is most likely the reason Arizona would have to be blown away by a trade offer.

Fausto Carmona
Carmona has enjoyed a revival of sorts this year. His record may not show, playing for the Indians, but Carmona is back to his olf self, the one who won 19 games in 2007. Carmona’s ERA is down to 3.65. He has only allowed 113 hits in 123.1 innings pitched. His BAA against is .248 and his WHIP is 1.31. He has suffered a little with his control, as his BB/K ratio is 49/64. That clearly has not hurt him too much. Most impressive, though, is that he has only allowed 7 home runs.
The low home run total is undoubtedly due to Carmona’s ground ball tendencies. He throws a low to mid-90’s sinker, along with a hard slider and a changeup. He has good control of the latter two pitches, though they are often near the strike zone and not in it. When batters do not chase his off-speed stuff is when he struggles with his command. Carmona throws his fastball 75% of the time, mostly hand side of the plate. It gets results though, even when he struggles early in starts, as most sinkerballers do.
Carmona is under contract through next year, with three option years after that. This year he is due $4.9 million, next year $6.1 million, then $7, $9, and $12 million for the option years. The Indians have invested a bunch of time and effort into Carmona, though, especially after his bad 2008 campaign. One also must consider whether or not Cleveland will be willing to let another solid top of the rotation guy get away. The team would almost certainly want a bounty in return, even though Carmona isn’t in the same league as Sabathia and Lee.
The Indians, though, wildly underperformed last year after being expected to seriously contend. A glance at their depth chart shows a need in almost every area. This is especially true in the closer spot, as Wood has just gone on the DL again. I really think there is no way to predict a trade price on this one unless one owns a crystal ball or actually works in the Cleveland front office.

Carl Pavano
No, I didn’t even write that with a straight face. But given how well he is pitching, wouldn’t that be funny? I think there would be riots.

Roy Oswalt
I’ll preface this by saying I think Oswalt is too much of a country boy to ever want to play in New York. But is is worth exploring. Oswalt, as always, has been phenomenal this year. In 120.0 innings pitched he has only allowed 93 hits. He has a BB/K ratio of 33/112, with a brilliant WHIP of 1.05 and a BAA of .213, His ERA is 3.08. He has only allowed 11 home runs. That may make him ideal for Yankee Stadium, if only he wanted to play in a big city.
Oswalt is known for his sniper like control and his durability. With his full no trade clause, it will be really interesting to watch Oswalt balance his desire to finally win with his small town roots. One of his favorite parts about the Astros was the owner, McLane’s, connection to his small town roots. Nothing about New York City or the Yankees screams small town roots. Nor does Hal Steinbrenner strike me as the type of guy to purchase Roy a tractor should he win 20 games two straight years, as McLane did.
Eventually, though, every true competitor wants a chance to win. Will Oswalt instruct the Astros to send him to a big city if it means a chance to contend for a few years? He certainly deserves the chance. He is owed $15 million this year, and $16 million next year. There is a club option for 2012 at $16 million, with a $2 million buyout.
Given what Oswalt has meant to the Astros franchise, the price will most likely start staggeringly high. Since Oswalt requested a trade, that price may begin to plummet as the trading deadline approaches. Oswalt may raise hell if he has to suffer through another losing season in the Texas heat and wait until winter to make the move.

In Memorium

“The Voice of God.”

“His death leaves a lasting silence.”

“Players changed year in and year out. He was the one constant.”

“A voice that you hear in your dreams; your sleep.”

“When you think of all the great players he has announced, when you think of the old stadium, there is no doubt you think about him and what he has done for the organization.”

“When you think of Bob Sheppard you think of all the tradition with the Yankees. You think about Ruth and Gehrig and Yogi and Joe D and Mantle, and I think you mention Bob Sheppard.”

“The most distinguished and dignified voice in all of professional sports.”

“There will never be another like him.”

“Every time he says my name, I get goose bumps.” (To which Sheppard replied softly, “Mickey, so do I.”)

His own words: “A PA announcer is not a cheerleader or a circus barker, or a hometown screecher. He’s a reporter.”

Forgive a small departure from my promised format. Any blog devoted to anything related to baseball would be remiss to not take a moment to appreciate one of baseball’s greats. For those of you who have not heard Bob Sheppard’s voice, go to EPN or YouTube and find it; it is truly, as Reggie Jackson said, “the Voice of God.”

Much has been said and written about Sheppard’s career, his approach, his civility and his eloquence. This will not pretend to be those things. This is simply a moment to remember a legend. Bob Sheppard announced three perfect games in Yankee stadium. He announced the names of over 70 Hall of Famers. He announced 62 World Series games, and 121 straight post season games.

He was there for Mickey Mantle’s debut, and finale. He was there for Larson’s perfect game in the ’56 World Series. He was there for the three-peat in ’98, ’99, and ’00. He was there when Roger Maris hit his 61ist home run – he was there when Reggie Jackson hit three on three swings in the ’77 World Series.

He lasted so long in his post that fathers, sons, and grandsons all well up from familiarity at the sound of his voice. He is the only non-player recognized with a plaque in Yankee Stadium’s Monument Park.

One can only hope that Sheppard’s immortalization in that revered alter in baseball’s Great Cathedral will buy him a ticker to whatever form of speech and baseball heaven he desires. I hope he has found his way to a place where he can “be clear, be concise, be correct” and witness an afterlife ballgame worth his illustrious run.

Sheppard said towards the end of his life “I don’t go to work . . . I go to a ballgame.” Here’s hoping that’s where you end up, Mr. Sheppard.

The Case for Kevin Youkilis over Nick Swisher

The MLB Channel announced about two hours ago that Joey Votto and Nick Swisher were the final fan votes to complete the All Star rosters. Congratulations to both of them. It is quite an honor. In Votto’s case, I think an egregious wrong was finally righted. He deserved to be on the initial roster. I think Swisher is also deserving of being an All Star, but I think he beat out someone more deserving.
Nick Swisher is a great guy. And given how much he has spoken about what an honor making the All Star team would be, I am very happy for him. And, like any Yankee fan, I am pleased with how much representation we have (though I think 7 is overkill, and would submit Alex Rodriguez was also not totally deserving of his appointment). But did the fans really just vote Swisher in over Youkilis?

Please do not take this as me diminishing Swisher’s accomplishment, or season. He is very deserving as well. Swisher is currently hitting .298. His OBP is .376, and he is slugging .518. He also has 14 home runs and 48 RBIs. These numbers are impressive, especially when you consider they come in a line up where he is surrounded by A-Rod, Tex, Cano, etc. That Swisher is so productive is probably a bit a product of that lineup, and being a switch hitter in a lefty friendly Yankee Stadium (7 of his home runs have come at Yankee Stadium and 11 from the left side).

Compare Swisher’s numbers, though, to Youkilis’s. Youk is hitting .292, with a .409 OBP. He is slugging .574 with 17 home runs, 55 RBIs. His OPS is .983 compared to Swisher’s .895. The only statistical category in which Swisher enjoys an advantage is batting average. I would submit, as many have before me, and on base percentage is a far more valuable stat.

The Yankees did run an aggressive campaign for Swisher, including a commercial broadcast online and in New York. Is an aggressive media campaign truly what put one man over the other? I have not seen the final vote tally yet, but surely anyone reading can see that Youkilis probably deserved much more consideration than he got. He is more qualified. This, again, demonstrates the problem with letting fans vote for who makes the team.

The beginning: All Star discussions and Tampa Bay's future

This blog will feature front office based dicussions about baseball. I will do my best to offer informed opinions. I do not pretend to be an expert, just an avid baseball fan who dreams of working in a baseball front office some day. Each post, which I will try to do daily, but will surely fail, will feature not only timely discussions of present issues in baseball, but also things I find interesting to think ahead or back about. Enjoy.

Should the All Star Game determine World Series home advantage?

No. This is one of the most embarrassing aspects of baseball. The All-Star game, once a vaunted and celebrated event, might be one of the biggest jokes in professional sports. The fans get to pick the starting lineup? Seriously? I must have somehow slept through the year Selig declared the “All-Star Game” officially my “high school prom court.” Turn your TV on to a baseball game. Look at the crowd. That shirtless, keg bellied guy with paint on his bald scalp and hairy stomach? He’s going to go home and cast his 25 votes tonight. And every night after that. And you know someone like that won’t be analyzing OPS, VORP, win shares added or even the simple stats like RBIs and batting average. No. He votes for his favorite player, who he sees on the Sportscenter highlight reels the most.

It’s bad enough America has to deal with those fools from Ohio and Florida deciding presidential elections each year. Why does Joe “painted body” Hotdog get to pick who the All-Star players are? Perhaps baseball has someone more qualified to offer for selection . . .

Also worth noting is this – for some reason escaping understanding, each team must have representation at the game. Forgetting the entirely unfounded and unsubstantiated premise that this suggests each team is somehow at least on par with all the others, it will most likely deny other far more deserving players. Do we really believe that the Oakland Athletics deserve representation at the game this year? Are we really ready for that to mean that Andy Pettitte or Phil Hughes has to stay home?

Or worse – this must be the Atlanta Braves’ nightmare. Yadier Molina is at the plate, facing Mariano Rivera in the ninth, two out, down a run, with Jose Reyes on third. Do the Braves rest their home field advantage hopes on this scenario? Should they have to?

Why Stephen Strasburg should have been an All-Star.

By now, everyone knows the stats. He set a record for the most strikeouts in the first five appearances. 48 strikeouts in 31.2 innings pitched. A BB/K ratio of 7/48. A .217 batting average against. Fourteen strikeouts and no walks in his major league debut. A record of 2-2. And ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.01. He has started five games.

Proponents of Strasburg in the All-Star game will argue his stats. The BB/K ration and WHIP in particular are strong points substantiating this young man making the All-Star roster. They will note his plus fastball, which touches 100 (oh, and it has ridiculous movement), his filthy curveball, and his 90 mph changeup, which seems almost unhittable. In Strasburg, baseball not only has a new ticket selling phenomenon, but an incredibly hyped pitcher who is actually living up to or exceeding his expectations.

Opponents of this idea will most often cite his limited experience. How can he be an All-Star if he has only had five starts? He hasn’t even been in the big leagues half a season, they say, surely there are people with more seniority who are also as deserving.

In light of that argument, it is worth reviewing the circumstances under which Strasburg’s career path began. In spring training, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said they would make a decision on Strasburg that allowed the Nationals to put their best competitive team on the field. Naturally, that meant Strasburg went to AA. (Wait, something doesn’t add up . . .) Listen, I will be the first person to advocate for bringing pitchers along slowly. In fact, I think they should be prohibited from pitching in the bigs in their first season. However, don’t sell your fans a bridge.

The Nationals sent Strasburg to AA for “development”? What, precisely, was developed in those five AA starts? Nothing but expectations. Strasburg wasn’t put in a single situation that tested him! The five in AAA? Are we to believe those twenty-five days are when Strasburg mastered that change-up? I’m not buying it. It is time for someone to finally say, out loud, that the Nationals pulled the same nonsense with Strasburg that the Tampa Bay Rays pulled with Evan Longoria. (This issue will be addressed in a later post in greater detail.) By bringing him up later, the Nationals retain control of Strasburg for a year longer. So please, sell it to your fans as keeping him longer, not “development.” That’s being dishonest to your fans.

But back to the point – why punish Strasburg for a managerial decision he has no control over? He has been phenomenal – one of the best pitchers since he has come up. Some commentators are talking about needing more time to “earn” your way on to the team. (Setting aside the point that letting idiot fans vote players on isn’t the players “earning” anything . . .) If your talent is All-Star caliber, then you deserve to make the All-Star team. Other pitchers deserve it more; Halladay, Jiminez, among others, but Strasburg deserves a spot. He shouldn’t suffer because owners wanted to keep him a year longer.

More importantly, though, that is the point of the All-Star game? Is it to have the best talent in the major leagues get together to play a game? If that’s the case, let Strasburg pitch an inning. He is surely one of the best talent in the National League. Is it to make money on a dog and pony circus show? (Perhaps by . . . letting fans vote for the starting lineup? And making it the deciding factor in which league gets home field advantage for the World Series? You get the point . . .) If that is the case, perhaps there is someone more deserving. Is Barnum or Bailey available to pitch that night?

As a closing point, it is worth noting that this kid is so humble, he would be embarrassed this discussion is even going on. He doesn’t want special treatment he says. But he deserves this.

Tampa Bay

There are two ways to sum up Tampa Bay’s recent and continued success as a baseball team. One is a brilliant scouting organization that got leveraged into careful draft selection, coupled with an excellent player development program and a manager whose personality best fits the team, its philosophy and its approach. The other is that there is no way you can suck that bad for that long and not stumble into boatloads of talent given the makeup of the amateur draft.

I mean, seriously: Carl Crawford, David Price, B.J. Upton, and Evan Longoria (not to mention the departed top draft picks of Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young).
After today’s comeback against the Red Sox, the Rays are in second place in the American League East. The Red Sox are in third, 2 ½ games behind the Yankees, who are in first. The AL East has become a dogfight. It looked early on to only be the Yankees and Rays, but the Red Sox mounted an impressive comeback, one that has continued, at least so far, through eight key players being on the DL.

By now, the incredible turn around the Rays made between 2007 and 2008 is well chronicled. 96 losses in 2007 to 97 wins in 2008, and a spot in the World Series. Of course, after losing that series the Rays won only 85 games in 2009 and missed the playoffs, but they proved to the world that the Rays of 2008 were not a fluke. Tampa Bay is indeed a team to be reckoned with. The Rays spent much of the first half of the season in first place, so it is clear that they are in the thick of it again. “But for how long?” one must ask. Granted, the Rays had many years with high picks in the draft, and they made spectacular use of them. But some of the Rays’ best talent is reaching either free agency or arbitration eligible years.

Scott Kazmir, for example, was becoming far too expensive for the Rays. They traded him last August for an excellent return: Alex Torres, a left hander who Baseball America ranks as the number 9 prospect in the Rays’ system now; Matt Sweeny. A left handed hitting third baseman (who projects decent power numbers) ranked by Baseball America as the number 24 prospect in the Rays’ system; and Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez plays second base for the Rays now. In 64 games so far, he is batting .281 with a .314 OBP. Rodriguez also has six steals and 29 RBIs.

Kazmir is the wins and innings pitched leader for Tampa Bay. Amid growing concerns about his command and cost, though, Tampa shipped him to Anaheim. Kazmir made $6 million in 2009, and was set to make $8 million in 2010. With Tampa’s payroll constraints, Kazmir’s salary was going to be tough to manage. The team got a very good return, and Kazmir’s control problems have continued. Kazmir ended last season with a 60/117 BB.K ratio. This season projects to be slightly worse; just past the halfway point his BB/K ratio is 41/55. (Kazmir is also 3rd in the majors in walks allowed.) Furthermore, his WHIP is an unimpressive 1.56.

Upcoming Tampa Free Agents:

Carl Crawford

It seems every time I turn on ESPN these days, they are talking about LeBron James. I don’t expect Crawford to be a free agent of THAT magnitude, but you can bet he will draw heavy interest. At the start of this season, I assumed Crawford was all but being fit for Yankee pinstripes. Crawford is such a phenomenal athlete and such a star; this has the feel of one of those stars the Yankees just can’t pass up. Then I remembered not everyone only plays for the money. This may especially true with Crawford, who has close ties to his team. Crawford broke into the big leagues with Rays in 2002, and has grown with the team as the team has grown with him. This will be a fascinating winter. Imagine how torn Crawford must feel. Now that the team he helped build is proving it can win on a regular basis, I assume there is a deep sense of loyalty pulling him to stay. Yet there must be the money draw. Crawford is set to make $10 million this season, though it could rise to $11.5 with the built-in escalators.

Keeping in mind at just how high Tampa’s payroll will jump with arbitration eligible players (they have 10 players who are arbitration eligible after the 2010 season), this numbers game complicates the matter further. Tampa has a record high (for them) 72 million payroll this year. Last year’s market was interesting. There were not many marquee names, and owners were insisting on penny pinching. The top two left fielders were miles apart in their contracts. Matt Holliday, the top free agent, signed for seven years and $120 million. That is an annual average of $17 million and change a year. Jason Bay, the number two free agent, signed for four years and 66 million, for an average annual value of $16.5 million.

Prediction: There is no way Crawford stays. He will command a contract around 6 years, $18-$20 million a year (perhaps more). There will be an aggressive bidding war. Too many teams need his speed and his defense. The Rays will make a concerted effort, for sure, but cannot afford the price tag Crawford will command.

Ray’s Recover: Desmond Jennings may make Rays fans forget about Crawford very quickly. As the top Rays’ Baseball America prospect, Jennings has a high ceiling. Jennings is set to break into the show in 2011 (and just in time given Crawford’s expected departure). Even more exciting for Rays fans is this: Jennings may even be an upgrade from Crawford.

Jennings has incredible speed, and it is combined with good power. Between AA and AAA last year he had 52 stolen bases. His slugging percentage was .491. This season, those numbers are 20 stolen bases with 2 caught stealing, and a .423 slugging percentage. More impressive, though, is his OBP. Which is .371 this season, and was .419 last season at AAA. Adding to his impressive resume, Jennings was the only minor leaguer to have 50 extra base hits and steal 50 bases last season. Baseball America lauds his plate discipline, and notes that with his speed, power is secondary. He gets on base often, and with his base-stealing ability, a single could easily become a double whenever Jennings chooses. This speed also helps his defensive range, which is listed at gap to gap as a center fielder. Some speculate that Jennings is so strong defensively that when he arrives in the bigs, Upton will move to a corner position.

Carlos Pena

Pena has found an incredible home and career resurgence in Tampa. Starting in 2001, Pena went from Texas to Detroit, with time at Oakland and Boston before landing in Tampa in 2007. His power numbers took off that year, as he hit 46 homers and slugged .627 with an OPS of 1.038. His next two years saw a drop in average, but his home runs and slugging percentage stayed fairly high, at 31 and 39 and .494 and .537 respectively. This year is not as eye popping. Tampa’s Joe Madden thinks Pena might be pressing. He is in the walk year of his contract, so he probably feels tremendous pressure. Pena does have 16 homers, but eight of those came in early July when he hit six in six straight games. He is currently hitting .201. His slugging percentage is down to .402 and his OBP is an uncharacteristically low .316.

Pena is making $10.125 million this season, the last of a three year contract. Albert Pujols will unquestionably headline the 2011 free agent class. Adam Dunn is also in the group of 2011 potential free agents, so the market value of Pena’s contract is difficult to guess at this point. A wild unscientific guess would put Pujols in the $20 million + range, 4-6 years. Given Pena’s age, and his decline so far this season, he might not get higher than a three year contract. I would even venture 1-2, $10-13 million. As with Crawford, it seems unlikely that Tampa will swing such a high contract.

I think it is in Pena’s best interests to stay; even if it meant something like a two to three year deal for $ 16 or $24 million. Tampa is the only place he has found career success, and he seems to fit well with the personality of the club, a characteristic many free agents seem to ignore. Why not stay and play where one has found success and comfort? Before the start of the season, Pena expressed his love for Tampa and his desire to stay with a long term contract. I am not sure if a long term deal is in the cars, especially with Pena’s advanced age (as compared to a very young rest of the team) and the trend in shorter contracts. Especially with Pena’s price tag, and all the talent coming up through the Rays; system, any more than three years would be surprising to me.

The X-factor in all of this is Scott Boras. Perhaps, when there is a slow news day, I will devote an entire post to my feelings on Scott Boras. They are too numerous to go into now. Surely, though, you can expect that Boras will be in Pena’s ear, like the cartoon small devil that sits on the shoulder of a character attempting to make a decision, whispering about how much money Pena deserves. Boras will run the negotiations to the very end, and will try and squeeze every dollar possible out of the deal. Don’t be surprised if the famous “mystery bidder” (how in the world do teams continue to fall for that, by the way?) shows up in the process.

Prediction: Pena will want to resign with Tampa, but he will want almost twice as many years as the Rays are willing to give him. Boras gets in Pena’s ear about how much money and years he is worth (keep in mind this is an agent who tried to get Johnny Damon a 7 year contract last offseason) and confuses the situation. Pena will not get the years or money he wants anywhere, but a second team offers more money, which Boras somehow convinces Pena to take. At that point, Pena’s lack of comfort leads to lack of confidence, and his numbers plummet.

Tampa’s response/replacement:

Jeff Malm was drafted in the fifth round out of high school by the rays. He has a nice left handed stroke (which might be a plus – a left handed bat to replace Pena’s in the lineup, eventually) and can play slightly above average defense. In high school, Malm tied a national high school record with 277 career hits, though scouts have raised some questions about how his power will translate to wooden bats. He is currently considered an average power prospect, though there is potential for more. Malm only played in 7 games for the Gulf Coast Rays last season, with 25 at bats. There is a limited sample size, then, with which to judge him. Malm batted .240 with a .296 OBP.

This season, with the Princeton Rays, Malm is still having troubles. In 47 at bats he is hitting .149 with an OBP of .245. The adjustment to wooden bats is tough, especially for high school players, so the Rays will certainly exercise lots of patience.

Malm is also young, so he is most likely not the answer is Pena departs. /the Rays may have another interesting option in Matt Sweeney. Sweeney came to the Rays in the Scott Kazir trade and is still listed as a third base prospect. With Evan Longoria, though, third base seems to be locked down for the Rays for quite a while.

Sweeney is also a left handed batting high school draftee. Sweeney is a power hitter with a slightly lofted swing. Last season, between three teams he had nine home runs and 44 RBIs. This season, between Charlotte and Montgomery, he is batting .224 with seven home runs and 36 RBI. Sweeney injured his ankle two years ago, and is said to have lost a slight bit of confidence since then. He seems to be slowly adjusting to AA Montgomery. Scouts project his defensive abilities as more fitting for first base. Though the Rays are keeping him at third for now, word is he is bound for first base. Sweeney is also at least a year away, but shows nice potential.

Rafael Soriano

For the first time in many years, the Rays have a legitimate closer. The Rays acquired Soriano in a trade on December 11, 2009, and signed him to a one year deal for $7.25 million the same day. While not an established closer before 2009 was really the only other year Soriano got to act as the closer regularly – he had 27 that season), Soriano has certainly gotten the job done for the Rays this season. As of tonight, he has 23 saves in 24 opportunities, 29 strike outs in 32.2 innings pitched, a 1.65 ERA, but most impressively, a 0.83 WHIP.

Soriano features a fastball that can touch the upper 90’s, a good slider, and a decent change. Scouts say he has a very live arm. The downside, though, is that he is injury prone, and can give up too many home runs.

Prediction: I’ll be honest, I’ve got no idea how this one may play out. Expense is of course an issue, and one must wonder how good the front office will feel letting a closer be one of the team’s highest paid players, were they to resign him. He fits well, though, and Tampa can’t possibly continue with the luck they have in finding kids like Balfour who suddenly become effective closers. Having an anchor at the back of the bullpen should allow those relievers to become more effective, honestly.

The Rays owner also said today that “money is no object” when it comes to winning this season. Perhaps if that attitude brings results, there will be more money to spend next season as well, and Soriano becomes affordable.
The Ray’s system has a smattering of players who have acted as closer. The saves leader, with nine, is Winston Abreu. Abreu is 33, so it is unlikely that he is being groomed to take over the position. Three other players have three saves or less.

In 2008, the Rays made effective use of a “closer by committee” once Percival went down after 28 saves. Wheeler, Balfour, Howell, Miller and Hammel all chipped in with 13, 4, 3, 2 and 2 apiece. This was effective, but proved troubling in the postseason. The pressure there is unlike any other, and ultimately it was David Price who had to step in and shut the door on the Red Sox to close out game 7.

In 2009, the Rays got six from Percival, 17 from Howell, five from Choate, four from Balfour, and two each from Cormier and Wheeler. Pitchers like having a defined role. I am well aware of all the computer data compiled by Bill James showing that almost any pitcher can hold a 3 run lead and get 3 outs. I think that ignores the human element of stress. I think it also ignores the mentality needed, and the fact that a save isn’t always coming into the game to start the ninth with a three run lead. Sometimes it is with the bases loaded in the eighth with two outs, and a one run lead.

Ultimately, I think a team needs a closer, and I think Tampa acknowledges that (hence the trade for and signing of Soriano). Given how effective he has made the rest of the bullpen, Tampa will continue to try to use one closer. While they may not have an immediate viable option in their system, there is always a trade, and there is always the chance they could resign Soriano.

Conclusion: With s stacked farm system, a young, incredible pitching staff (Tampa’s oldest starter is 28), they are here to stay. This is no longer a team that just figured out how to win. They now know how to do it. There sweep of the Red Sox proves that they can play at a very high level, and they will continue to. It is just a question of which young phenoms end up taking the field next year.