The beginning: All Star discussions and Tampa Bay's future

This blog will feature front office based dicussions about baseball. I will do my best to offer informed opinions. I do not pretend to be an expert, just an avid baseball fan who dreams of working in a baseball front office some day. Each post, which I will try to do daily, but will surely fail, will feature not only timely discussions of present issues in baseball, but also things I find interesting to think ahead or back about. Enjoy.

Should the All Star Game determine World Series home advantage?

No. This is one of the most embarrassing aspects of baseball. The All-Star game, once a vaunted and celebrated event, might be one of the biggest jokes in professional sports. The fans get to pick the starting lineup? Seriously? I must have somehow slept through the year Selig declared the “All-Star Game” officially my “high school prom court.” Turn your TV on to a baseball game. Look at the crowd. That shirtless, keg bellied guy with paint on his bald scalp and hairy stomach? He’s going to go home and cast his 25 votes tonight. And every night after that. And you know someone like that won’t be analyzing OPS, VORP, win shares added or even the simple stats like RBIs and batting average. No. He votes for his favorite player, who he sees on the Sportscenter highlight reels the most.

It’s bad enough America has to deal with those fools from Ohio and Florida deciding presidential elections each year. Why does Joe “painted body” Hotdog get to pick who the All-Star players are? Perhaps baseball has someone more qualified to offer for selection . . .

Also worth noting is this – for some reason escaping understanding, each team must have representation at the game. Forgetting the entirely unfounded and unsubstantiated premise that this suggests each team is somehow at least on par with all the others, it will most likely deny other far more deserving players. Do we really believe that the Oakland Athletics deserve representation at the game this year? Are we really ready for that to mean that Andy Pettitte or Phil Hughes has to stay home?

Or worse – this must be the Atlanta Braves’ nightmare. Yadier Molina is at the plate, facing Mariano Rivera in the ninth, two out, down a run, with Jose Reyes on third. Do the Braves rest their home field advantage hopes on this scenario? Should they have to?

Why Stephen Strasburg should have been an All-Star.

By now, everyone knows the stats. He set a record for the most strikeouts in the first five appearances. 48 strikeouts in 31.2 innings pitched. A BB/K ratio of 7/48. A .217 batting average against. Fourteen strikeouts and no walks in his major league debut. A record of 2-2. And ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.01. He has started five games.

Proponents of Strasburg in the All-Star game will argue his stats. The BB/K ration and WHIP in particular are strong points substantiating this young man making the All-Star roster. They will note his plus fastball, which touches 100 (oh, and it has ridiculous movement), his filthy curveball, and his 90 mph changeup, which seems almost unhittable. In Strasburg, baseball not only has a new ticket selling phenomenon, but an incredibly hyped pitcher who is actually living up to or exceeding his expectations.

Opponents of this idea will most often cite his limited experience. How can he be an All-Star if he has only had five starts? He hasn’t even been in the big leagues half a season, they say, surely there are people with more seniority who are also as deserving.

In light of that argument, it is worth reviewing the circumstances under which Strasburg’s career path began. In spring training, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said they would make a decision on Strasburg that allowed the Nationals to put their best competitive team on the field. Naturally, that meant Strasburg went to AA. (Wait, something doesn’t add up . . .) Listen, I will be the first person to advocate for bringing pitchers along slowly. In fact, I think they should be prohibited from pitching in the bigs in their first season. However, don’t sell your fans a bridge.

The Nationals sent Strasburg to AA for “development”? What, precisely, was developed in those five AA starts? Nothing but expectations. Strasburg wasn’t put in a single situation that tested him! The five in AAA? Are we to believe those twenty-five days are when Strasburg mastered that change-up? I’m not buying it. It is time for someone to finally say, out loud, that the Nationals pulled the same nonsense with Strasburg that the Tampa Bay Rays pulled with Evan Longoria. (This issue will be addressed in a later post in greater detail.) By bringing him up later, the Nationals retain control of Strasburg for a year longer. So please, sell it to your fans as keeping him longer, not “development.” That’s being dishonest to your fans.

But back to the point – why punish Strasburg for a managerial decision he has no control over? He has been phenomenal – one of the best pitchers since he has come up. Some commentators are talking about needing more time to “earn” your way on to the team. (Setting aside the point that letting idiot fans vote players on isn’t the players “earning” anything . . .) If your talent is All-Star caliber, then you deserve to make the All-Star team. Other pitchers deserve it more; Halladay, Jiminez, among others, but Strasburg deserves a spot. He shouldn’t suffer because owners wanted to keep him a year longer.

More importantly, though, that is the point of the All-Star game? Is it to have the best talent in the major leagues get together to play a game? If that’s the case, let Strasburg pitch an inning. He is surely one of the best talent in the National League. Is it to make money on a dog and pony circus show? (Perhaps by . . . letting fans vote for the starting lineup? And making it the deciding factor in which league gets home field advantage for the World Series? You get the point . . .) If that is the case, perhaps there is someone more deserving. Is Barnum or Bailey available to pitch that night?

As a closing point, it is worth noting that this kid is so humble, he would be embarrassed this discussion is even going on. He doesn’t want special treatment he says. But he deserves this.

Tampa Bay

There are two ways to sum up Tampa Bay’s recent and continued success as a baseball team. One is a brilliant scouting organization that got leveraged into careful draft selection, coupled with an excellent player development program and a manager whose personality best fits the team, its philosophy and its approach. The other is that there is no way you can suck that bad for that long and not stumble into boatloads of talent given the makeup of the amateur draft.

I mean, seriously: Carl Crawford, David Price, B.J. Upton, and Evan Longoria (not to mention the departed top draft picks of Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young).
After today’s comeback against the Red Sox, the Rays are in second place in the American League East. The Red Sox are in third, 2 ½ games behind the Yankees, who are in first. The AL East has become a dogfight. It looked early on to only be the Yankees and Rays, but the Red Sox mounted an impressive comeback, one that has continued, at least so far, through eight key players being on the DL.

By now, the incredible turn around the Rays made between 2007 and 2008 is well chronicled. 96 losses in 2007 to 97 wins in 2008, and a spot in the World Series. Of course, after losing that series the Rays won only 85 games in 2009 and missed the playoffs, but they proved to the world that the Rays of 2008 were not a fluke. Tampa Bay is indeed a team to be reckoned with. The Rays spent much of the first half of the season in first place, so it is clear that they are in the thick of it again. “But for how long?” one must ask. Granted, the Rays had many years with high picks in the draft, and they made spectacular use of them. But some of the Rays’ best talent is reaching either free agency or arbitration eligible years.

Scott Kazmir, for example, was becoming far too expensive for the Rays. They traded him last August for an excellent return: Alex Torres, a left hander who Baseball America ranks as the number 9 prospect in the Rays’ system now; Matt Sweeny. A left handed hitting third baseman (who projects decent power numbers) ranked by Baseball America as the number 24 prospect in the Rays’ system; and Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez plays second base for the Rays now. In 64 games so far, he is batting .281 with a .314 OBP. Rodriguez also has six steals and 29 RBIs.

Kazmir is the wins and innings pitched leader for Tampa Bay. Amid growing concerns about his command and cost, though, Tampa shipped him to Anaheim. Kazmir made $6 million in 2009, and was set to make $8 million in 2010. With Tampa’s payroll constraints, Kazmir’s salary was going to be tough to manage. The team got a very good return, and Kazmir’s control problems have continued. Kazmir ended last season with a 60/117 BB.K ratio. This season projects to be slightly worse; just past the halfway point his BB/K ratio is 41/55. (Kazmir is also 3rd in the majors in walks allowed.) Furthermore, his WHIP is an unimpressive 1.56.

Upcoming Tampa Free Agents:

Carl Crawford

It seems every time I turn on ESPN these days, they are talking about LeBron James. I don’t expect Crawford to be a free agent of THAT magnitude, but you can bet he will draw heavy interest. At the start of this season, I assumed Crawford was all but being fit for Yankee pinstripes. Crawford is such a phenomenal athlete and such a star; this has the feel of one of those stars the Yankees just can’t pass up. Then I remembered not everyone only plays for the money. This may especially true with Crawford, who has close ties to his team. Crawford broke into the big leagues with Rays in 2002, and has grown with the team as the team has grown with him. This will be a fascinating winter. Imagine how torn Crawford must feel. Now that the team he helped build is proving it can win on a regular basis, I assume there is a deep sense of loyalty pulling him to stay. Yet there must be the money draw. Crawford is set to make $10 million this season, though it could rise to $11.5 with the built-in escalators.

Keeping in mind at just how high Tampa’s payroll will jump with arbitration eligible players (they have 10 players who are arbitration eligible after the 2010 season), this numbers game complicates the matter further. Tampa has a record high (for them) 72 million payroll this year. Last year’s market was interesting. There were not many marquee names, and owners were insisting on penny pinching. The top two left fielders were miles apart in their contracts. Matt Holliday, the top free agent, signed for seven years and $120 million. That is an annual average of $17 million and change a year. Jason Bay, the number two free agent, signed for four years and 66 million, for an average annual value of $16.5 million.

Prediction: There is no way Crawford stays. He will command a contract around 6 years, $18-$20 million a year (perhaps more). There will be an aggressive bidding war. Too many teams need his speed and his defense. The Rays will make a concerted effort, for sure, but cannot afford the price tag Crawford will command.

Ray’s Recover: Desmond Jennings may make Rays fans forget about Crawford very quickly. As the top Rays’ Baseball America prospect, Jennings has a high ceiling. Jennings is set to break into the show in 2011 (and just in time given Crawford’s expected departure). Even more exciting for Rays fans is this: Jennings may even be an upgrade from Crawford.

Jennings has incredible speed, and it is combined with good power. Between AA and AAA last year he had 52 stolen bases. His slugging percentage was .491. This season, those numbers are 20 stolen bases with 2 caught stealing, and a .423 slugging percentage. More impressive, though, is his OBP. Which is .371 this season, and was .419 last season at AAA. Adding to his impressive resume, Jennings was the only minor leaguer to have 50 extra base hits and steal 50 bases last season. Baseball America lauds his plate discipline, and notes that with his speed, power is secondary. He gets on base often, and with his base-stealing ability, a single could easily become a double whenever Jennings chooses. This speed also helps his defensive range, which is listed at gap to gap as a center fielder. Some speculate that Jennings is so strong defensively that when he arrives in the bigs, Upton will move to a corner position.

Carlos Pena

Pena has found an incredible home and career resurgence in Tampa. Starting in 2001, Pena went from Texas to Detroit, with time at Oakland and Boston before landing in Tampa in 2007. His power numbers took off that year, as he hit 46 homers and slugged .627 with an OPS of 1.038. His next two years saw a drop in average, but his home runs and slugging percentage stayed fairly high, at 31 and 39 and .494 and .537 respectively. This year is not as eye popping. Tampa’s Joe Madden thinks Pena might be pressing. He is in the walk year of his contract, so he probably feels tremendous pressure. Pena does have 16 homers, but eight of those came in early July when he hit six in six straight games. He is currently hitting .201. His slugging percentage is down to .402 and his OBP is an uncharacteristically low .316.

Pena is making $10.125 million this season, the last of a three year contract. Albert Pujols will unquestionably headline the 2011 free agent class. Adam Dunn is also in the group of 2011 potential free agents, so the market value of Pena’s contract is difficult to guess at this point. A wild unscientific guess would put Pujols in the $20 million + range, 4-6 years. Given Pena’s age, and his decline so far this season, he might not get higher than a three year contract. I would even venture 1-2, $10-13 million. As with Crawford, it seems unlikely that Tampa will swing such a high contract.

I think it is in Pena’s best interests to stay; even if it meant something like a two to three year deal for $ 16 or $24 million. Tampa is the only place he has found career success, and he seems to fit well with the personality of the club, a characteristic many free agents seem to ignore. Why not stay and play where one has found success and comfort? Before the start of the season, Pena expressed his love for Tampa and his desire to stay with a long term contract. I am not sure if a long term deal is in the cars, especially with Pena’s advanced age (as compared to a very young rest of the team) and the trend in shorter contracts. Especially with Pena’s price tag, and all the talent coming up through the Rays; system, any more than three years would be surprising to me.

The X-factor in all of this is Scott Boras. Perhaps, when there is a slow news day, I will devote an entire post to my feelings on Scott Boras. They are too numerous to go into now. Surely, though, you can expect that Boras will be in Pena’s ear, like the cartoon small devil that sits on the shoulder of a character attempting to make a decision, whispering about how much money Pena deserves. Boras will run the negotiations to the very end, and will try and squeeze every dollar possible out of the deal. Don’t be surprised if the famous “mystery bidder” (how in the world do teams continue to fall for that, by the way?) shows up in the process.

Prediction: Pena will want to resign with Tampa, but he will want almost twice as many years as the Rays are willing to give him. Boras gets in Pena’s ear about how much money and years he is worth (keep in mind this is an agent who tried to get Johnny Damon a 7 year contract last offseason) and confuses the situation. Pena will not get the years or money he wants anywhere, but a second team offers more money, which Boras somehow convinces Pena to take. At that point, Pena’s lack of comfort leads to lack of confidence, and his numbers plummet.

Tampa’s response/replacement:

Jeff Malm was drafted in the fifth round out of high school by the rays. He has a nice left handed stroke (which might be a plus – a left handed bat to replace Pena’s in the lineup, eventually) and can play slightly above average defense. In high school, Malm tied a national high school record with 277 career hits, though scouts have raised some questions about how his power will translate to wooden bats. He is currently considered an average power prospect, though there is potential for more. Malm only played in 7 games for the Gulf Coast Rays last season, with 25 at bats. There is a limited sample size, then, with which to judge him. Malm batted .240 with a .296 OBP.

This season, with the Princeton Rays, Malm is still having troubles. In 47 at bats he is hitting .149 with an OBP of .245. The adjustment to wooden bats is tough, especially for high school players, so the Rays will certainly exercise lots of patience.

Malm is also young, so he is most likely not the answer is Pena departs. /the Rays may have another interesting option in Matt Sweeney. Sweeney came to the Rays in the Scott Kazir trade and is still listed as a third base prospect. With Evan Longoria, though, third base seems to be locked down for the Rays for quite a while.

Sweeney is also a left handed batting high school draftee. Sweeney is a power hitter with a slightly lofted swing. Last season, between three teams he had nine home runs and 44 RBIs. This season, between Charlotte and Montgomery, he is batting .224 with seven home runs and 36 RBI. Sweeney injured his ankle two years ago, and is said to have lost a slight bit of confidence since then. He seems to be slowly adjusting to AA Montgomery. Scouts project his defensive abilities as more fitting for first base. Though the Rays are keeping him at third for now, word is he is bound for first base. Sweeney is also at least a year away, but shows nice potential.

Rafael Soriano

For the first time in many years, the Rays have a legitimate closer. The Rays acquired Soriano in a trade on December 11, 2009, and signed him to a one year deal for $7.25 million the same day. While not an established closer before 2009 was really the only other year Soriano got to act as the closer regularly – he had 27 that season), Soriano has certainly gotten the job done for the Rays this season. As of tonight, he has 23 saves in 24 opportunities, 29 strike outs in 32.2 innings pitched, a 1.65 ERA, but most impressively, a 0.83 WHIP.

Soriano features a fastball that can touch the upper 90’s, a good slider, and a decent change. Scouts say he has a very live arm. The downside, though, is that he is injury prone, and can give up too many home runs.

Prediction: I’ll be honest, I’ve got no idea how this one may play out. Expense is of course an issue, and one must wonder how good the front office will feel letting a closer be one of the team’s highest paid players, were they to resign him. He fits well, though, and Tampa can’t possibly continue with the luck they have in finding kids like Balfour who suddenly become effective closers. Having an anchor at the back of the bullpen should allow those relievers to become more effective, honestly.

The Rays owner also said today that “money is no object” when it comes to winning this season. Perhaps if that attitude brings results, there will be more money to spend next season as well, and Soriano becomes affordable.
The Ray’s system has a smattering of players who have acted as closer. The saves leader, with nine, is Winston Abreu. Abreu is 33, so it is unlikely that he is being groomed to take over the position. Three other players have three saves or less.

In 2008, the Rays made effective use of a “closer by committee” once Percival went down after 28 saves. Wheeler, Balfour, Howell, Miller and Hammel all chipped in with 13, 4, 3, 2 and 2 apiece. This was effective, but proved troubling in the postseason. The pressure there is unlike any other, and ultimately it was David Price who had to step in and shut the door on the Red Sox to close out game 7.

In 2009, the Rays got six from Percival, 17 from Howell, five from Choate, four from Balfour, and two each from Cormier and Wheeler. Pitchers like having a defined role. I am well aware of all the computer data compiled by Bill James showing that almost any pitcher can hold a 3 run lead and get 3 outs. I think that ignores the human element of stress. I think it also ignores the mentality needed, and the fact that a save isn’t always coming into the game to start the ninth with a three run lead. Sometimes it is with the bases loaded in the eighth with two outs, and a one run lead.

Ultimately, I think a team needs a closer, and I think Tampa acknowledges that (hence the trade for and signing of Soriano). Given how effective he has made the rest of the bullpen, Tampa will continue to try to use one closer. While they may not have an immediate viable option in their system, there is always a trade, and there is always the chance they could resign Soriano.

Conclusion: With s stacked farm system, a young, incredible pitching staff (Tampa’s oldest starter is 28), they are here to stay. This is no longer a team that just figured out how to win. They now know how to do it. There sweep of the Red Sox proves that they can play at a very high level, and they will continue to. It is just a question of which young phenoms end up taking the field next year.