With the news that Joba Chamberlain is most likely headed for Tommy John surgery, experts and laymen alike have lit up message boards and talk shows discussing what a potential solution might be.
The Yankees’ bullpen, considered a formidable strength at the start of the season, is now without its three primary setup men: Chamberlain, Soriano, and Feliciano. Chamberlain has a torn ligament in his elbow, and is done for the season. Soriano has been shut down for weeks, and has made zero progress. Feliciano may return in late July.
Of the three, two were free agent signings this offseason. Soriano signed for three years and $35 million. (For now, we will leave aside any discussion of how ill advised this signing was, and that Cashman did not want to sign Soriano.) Feliciano signed for two years and $8 million, with a team option for 2013.
People get injured – it happens. But Soriano was markedly ineffective in his time before his injury. In 16 games, Soriano had an ERA of 5.40, a 10/11 K/BB ratio, 15 hits in 15 innings, and a WHIP of 1.73. Soriano also managed to alienate himself by refusing to shoulder responsibility for performing poorly in his start in New York.
The troubles of Soriano and the injuries to both Feliciano and Soriano prove how much finding quality middle relief is a Russian roulette game. The calls for the Yankees to go out on the trade market and trade away valuable prospects for a rent-a-reliever should seem preposterous.
Most fans in this situation – especially at this time of year – demand the GM go trolling the trade market for a middle reliever. Most GMs, in fact, would be searching in a panic for a way to put a patch on the leaky bullpen. I am relieved to read Buster Olney’s report that Cashman adamantly refuses to trade Banuelos, Montero, or Betances.
Prospects are assets. Some will over-perform. Some will under-perform. Some will do exactly as expected. Midseason trades for a player, is almost always driven by the lack of long term availability of the player being traded for (from the buyer’s perspective). The player being traded for, then, absent an extension, is an asset of only short-term value.
Not only do they provide only short-term value; it is a risky, risky undertaking. I’m confident enough to say without supporting numbers that middle relievers are a crapshoot at best. Some blow your mind by over-performing (see, e.g., Tanyon Sturtze in 2005) whereas some are so under-whelming it is painful (see Rafael Soriano in 2011).
My question, then, is why would anyone even consider trading away incredibly valuable prospects who are (1) cheaper; (2) cheaper longer; (3) have higher upsides; and (4) are just overall more valuable? I get part of the argument – in the heat of a pennant race, some fans and GMs and owners feel more comfortable turning to a “reliable” arm.
The list, though, of reliable arms that have proven to be grossly unreliable is staggering. Eric Gagne, Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, and Kyle Farnsworth. There are actually too many to truly name.
My point is this. On an aging team, the best option is absolutely not to trade away your young talent. Bring in Kevin Whelan. Give him a shot. Bringing up a closer who is dominating AAA has as much a chance of success as trading for an expensive crapshoot does. Moreover, leading up to July 31 is when the price for middle relievers will be at a premium. If you buy, you will for sure overpay. Middle relievers do not provide enough value to risk giving away valuable long-term assets.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
A Long time coming
I’m back!
Like Dr. Dre, or Eminem, I have returned to bring my six or seven loyal readers blog updates for the 2011 season. Unlike Dre or Eminem, I will not make claims that “this is the last time, really.” (See how I avoided making a Brett Farve joke there?)
Law school has ended and as I prepare for surgery and not the bar exam, I will have a lot of frigging free time on my hands. So those that care to read – I’ll be here. We’ve settled in to living in Massachusetts – now I look for employment. In my free time, though. I’ll be looking for six or seven outlets to alleviate nerves and to keep from going batshit crazy watching my girlfriend prepare for the bar. (Fingers crossed, but she’s brilliant – she’ll do well.)
It’s late May, so a lot has happened since the start of the season. I also have a lot of free time on my hands, so my seven loyal readers may get sick of longer, more involved posts. Hope you all enjoy.
Yankees Front Office Pros:
How brilliant does Brian Cashman look in his suggestion the team shy away from signing Soriano? Admittedly, he would look even smarter had he held his ground. Yet another grossly huge, unnecessarily large contract the team will come to regret soon, if they don’t already.
Yankees Front Office Cons:
Where to begin? Soriano. The treatment of the Posada situation. (Note the careful use of the word situation, and its inclusion. Not the front office’s treatment of Posada, but of the situation. Cashman, in all his middle school glory, went to reporters in the middle of the third inning to out Posada. Come on Cashman, you’re better than that.) The loss of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. And, perhaps related, the growing realization that the Yankees are less and less the proud image of George Steinbrenner, and more the weasely, rat-like, sneaking snake-like image of Swindel.
Every front office has at least one. Swindel has clearly mucked up many of the Yankees’ dealings going back as far as at least 2007. Fred Wilpon famously showed his true colors in a recent interview. Larry Lucchino is just an asshole.
In Boston, though, at least the benevolence of John Henry prevails. After the famous standoff in 2006 in which Cashman FINALLY got full control of baseball operations (why he needed 8 years to do so is beyond comprehension), Swindel has clearly slowly gathered more power for himself. As such, an organization once universally recognized for its class now appears, at times, to be shockingly classless.
Such horrendous policy is now driving away the free agents once assumed to end up in pinstripes. Mark my words, Cliff Lee was just the beginning. What player will want to sign a contract with a team that torpedoes the face of the franchise publically? Is Jeter worth his contract? Absolutely not. No one thinks so. But what I do know is this: neither is A-Rod. Neither is CC. Neither is Posada. You don’t all of a sudden draw an organizational line with the man baseball loves.
You simply don’t threaten to not negotiate with A-Rod if he opts out of his contract, then give him a raise when he does and there are no other offers. You certainly don’t then turn around and try to get your franchise player, the captain, of all people, to take a pay cut. Come on. You CERTAINLY don’t publically cajole and threaten him.
There may be those reading who are properly thinking “but Jeter’s agent started the public statements.” He did – but not the negative statements. He said the position the Yankees were taking was baffling. And it was. He didn’t tear into anyone. He didn’t name names.
Cashman did. He publically challenged Jeter to shop for other offers. He pointed out Jeter’s weaknesses. Stories were leaked that were not flattering to Jeter.
Listen – I’m not saying Cashman wasn’t right when he said those things. I don’t even blame him that much for wishing he could get a more value based contract for Jeter. I am, though, saying that every decision needs to be made in a business context with the big picture in mind. Those nonsense publicity stunts were made in a myopic fashion. What player is going to feel comfortable signing a long-term deal with the Yankees now? “If they treat the face of their franchise that way,” each prospective player will think, “how will they treat me?” Surely, each of these players asking himself that will determine whatever extra dollars the Yankees offer will not be worth being treated horribly.
Of course, the Cliff Lee saga was unfolding before most of this happened. This didn’t cause Lee to sign elsewhere. It may, however, act as a deterrent to future free agents. This problem could also potentially get worse. The episode with Posada and the Jeter contract fiasco are just the beginning. Think of what may happen should the front office stay on its course when the time comes for Jeter to change positions? (A change far in the future, as there is really no quality shortstop prospect in the system at all – watch the upcoming draft carefully.) Then there will be the eventual and inevitable parting of ways with Posada, Jeter, and Rivera. Hopefully the brass has learned a lesson or two since its disgraceful handling of the Joe Torre situation.
Stay tuned . . .
Over the next two days, I hope to cover an interesting discussion I had with my brother on scouting/signing power high school arms versus pitchers who throw with great movement.
Like Dr. Dre, or Eminem, I have returned to bring my six or seven loyal readers blog updates for the 2011 season. Unlike Dre or Eminem, I will not make claims that “this is the last time, really.” (See how I avoided making a Brett Farve joke there?)
Law school has ended and as I prepare for surgery and not the bar exam, I will have a lot of frigging free time on my hands. So those that care to read – I’ll be here. We’ve settled in to living in Massachusetts – now I look for employment. In my free time, though. I’ll be looking for six or seven outlets to alleviate nerves and to keep from going batshit crazy watching my girlfriend prepare for the bar. (Fingers crossed, but she’s brilliant – she’ll do well.)
It’s late May, so a lot has happened since the start of the season. I also have a lot of free time on my hands, so my seven loyal readers may get sick of longer, more involved posts. Hope you all enjoy.
Yankees Front Office Pros:
How brilliant does Brian Cashman look in his suggestion the team shy away from signing Soriano? Admittedly, he would look even smarter had he held his ground. Yet another grossly huge, unnecessarily large contract the team will come to regret soon, if they don’t already.
Yankees Front Office Cons:
Where to begin? Soriano. The treatment of the Posada situation. (Note the careful use of the word situation, and its inclusion. Not the front office’s treatment of Posada, but of the situation. Cashman, in all his middle school glory, went to reporters in the middle of the third inning to out Posada. Come on Cashman, you’re better than that.) The loss of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. And, perhaps related, the growing realization that the Yankees are less and less the proud image of George Steinbrenner, and more the weasely, rat-like, sneaking snake-like image of Swindel.
Every front office has at least one. Swindel has clearly mucked up many of the Yankees’ dealings going back as far as at least 2007. Fred Wilpon famously showed his true colors in a recent interview. Larry Lucchino is just an asshole.
In Boston, though, at least the benevolence of John Henry prevails. After the famous standoff in 2006 in which Cashman FINALLY got full control of baseball operations (why he needed 8 years to do so is beyond comprehension), Swindel has clearly slowly gathered more power for himself. As such, an organization once universally recognized for its class now appears, at times, to be shockingly classless.
Such horrendous policy is now driving away the free agents once assumed to end up in pinstripes. Mark my words, Cliff Lee was just the beginning. What player will want to sign a contract with a team that torpedoes the face of the franchise publically? Is Jeter worth his contract? Absolutely not. No one thinks so. But what I do know is this: neither is A-Rod. Neither is CC. Neither is Posada. You don’t all of a sudden draw an organizational line with the man baseball loves.
You simply don’t threaten to not negotiate with A-Rod if he opts out of his contract, then give him a raise when he does and there are no other offers. You certainly don’t then turn around and try to get your franchise player, the captain, of all people, to take a pay cut. Come on. You CERTAINLY don’t publically cajole and threaten him.
There may be those reading who are properly thinking “but Jeter’s agent started the public statements.” He did – but not the negative statements. He said the position the Yankees were taking was baffling. And it was. He didn’t tear into anyone. He didn’t name names.
Cashman did. He publically challenged Jeter to shop for other offers. He pointed out Jeter’s weaknesses. Stories were leaked that were not flattering to Jeter.
Listen – I’m not saying Cashman wasn’t right when he said those things. I don’t even blame him that much for wishing he could get a more value based contract for Jeter. I am, though, saying that every decision needs to be made in a business context with the big picture in mind. Those nonsense publicity stunts were made in a myopic fashion. What player is going to feel comfortable signing a long-term deal with the Yankees now? “If they treat the face of their franchise that way,” each prospective player will think, “how will they treat me?” Surely, each of these players asking himself that will determine whatever extra dollars the Yankees offer will not be worth being treated horribly.
Of course, the Cliff Lee saga was unfolding before most of this happened. This didn’t cause Lee to sign elsewhere. It may, however, act as a deterrent to future free agents. This problem could also potentially get worse. The episode with Posada and the Jeter contract fiasco are just the beginning. Think of what may happen should the front office stay on its course when the time comes for Jeter to change positions? (A change far in the future, as there is really no quality shortstop prospect in the system at all – watch the upcoming draft carefully.) Then there will be the eventual and inevitable parting of ways with Posada, Jeter, and Rivera. Hopefully the brass has learned a lesson or two since its disgraceful handling of the Joe Torre situation.
Stay tuned . . .
Over the next two days, I hope to cover an interesting discussion I had with my brother on scouting/signing power high school arms versus pitchers who throw with great movement.
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