With the news that Joba Chamberlain is most likely headed for Tommy John surgery, experts and laymen alike have lit up message boards and talk shows discussing what a potential solution might be.
The Yankees’ bullpen, considered a formidable strength at the start of the season, is now without its three primary setup men: Chamberlain, Soriano, and Feliciano. Chamberlain has a torn ligament in his elbow, and is done for the season. Soriano has been shut down for weeks, and has made zero progress. Feliciano may return in late July.
Of the three, two were free agent signings this offseason. Soriano signed for three years and $35 million. (For now, we will leave aside any discussion of how ill advised this signing was, and that Cashman did not want to sign Soriano.) Feliciano signed for two years and $8 million, with a team option for 2013.
People get injured – it happens. But Soriano was markedly ineffective in his time before his injury. In 16 games, Soriano had an ERA of 5.40, a 10/11 K/BB ratio, 15 hits in 15 innings, and a WHIP of 1.73. Soriano also managed to alienate himself by refusing to shoulder responsibility for performing poorly in his start in New York.
The troubles of Soriano and the injuries to both Feliciano and Soriano prove how much finding quality middle relief is a Russian roulette game. The calls for the Yankees to go out on the trade market and trade away valuable prospects for a rent-a-reliever should seem preposterous.
Most fans in this situation – especially at this time of year – demand the GM go trolling the trade market for a middle reliever. Most GMs, in fact, would be searching in a panic for a way to put a patch on the leaky bullpen. I am relieved to read Buster Olney’s report that Cashman adamantly refuses to trade Banuelos, Montero, or Betances.
Prospects are assets. Some will over-perform. Some will under-perform. Some will do exactly as expected. Midseason trades for a player, is almost always driven by the lack of long term availability of the player being traded for (from the buyer’s perspective). The player being traded for, then, absent an extension, is an asset of only short-term value.
Not only do they provide only short-term value; it is a risky, risky undertaking. I’m confident enough to say without supporting numbers that middle relievers are a crapshoot at best. Some blow your mind by over-performing (see, e.g., Tanyon Sturtze in 2005) whereas some are so under-whelming it is painful (see Rafael Soriano in 2011).
My question, then, is why would anyone even consider trading away incredibly valuable prospects who are (1) cheaper; (2) cheaper longer; (3) have higher upsides; and (4) are just overall more valuable? I get part of the argument – in the heat of a pennant race, some fans and GMs and owners feel more comfortable turning to a “reliable” arm.
The list, though, of reliable arms that have proven to be grossly unreliable is staggering. Eric Gagne, Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, and Kyle Farnsworth. There are actually too many to truly name.
My point is this. On an aging team, the best option is absolutely not to trade away your young talent. Bring in Kevin Whelan. Give him a shot. Bringing up a closer who is dominating AAA has as much a chance of success as trading for an expensive crapshoot does. Moreover, leading up to July 31 is when the price for middle relievers will be at a premium. If you buy, you will for sure overpay. Middle relievers do not provide enough value to risk giving away valuable long-term assets.
