Well, it’s happened; the first of many heart palpitations for the ever growing body of Nationals fans (I think they may be 50 or 60 now!). Stephen Strasburg is on the DL with “shoulder stiffness.” This move is the result of an MRI showing slight inflammation in Strasburg’s pitching shoulder. During his pregame warm up for his scheduled start on Tuesday, Strasburg said that he “couldn’t get warm. The Nationals shut him down immediately and slipped Miguel Batista into the starting role that night. Strasburg then went to get the MRI.
Saying a 22 year old professional pitcher has inflammation in his shoulder is like saying the sky is blue, or Cubs fans are masochists. Strasburg, though, as the prodigal son messiah Tim Tebowesque Moses descended from the baseball heavens meant to lead the Nationals to glory (but only after their stadium cracks in half and rebuilds itself three days later), must be protected.
Even before this, the front office made it clear Strasburg is on an innings limit this season. It includes his work from the minor leagues (55.1) and the majors, 54.1. The limit imposed on Strasburg is believed to be 150-160, so some people may argue that missing two starts on the DL might not be the worst thing.
The Nationals are not a great team, and Strasburg has already become the face of the franchise. He is a ray of light to all 45 of the season ticket holders in Washington. Well, him and Bryce Harper. The front office is well aware of the fans’ expectations of growing talent now that Strasburg is signed and pitching (no small feat considering he was the first pick and was being “advised” by Scott Boras). They cannot ruin his arm. Hence the total overkill when leaning towards safety.
The stories of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are too fresh in the baseball fans’ memory for the Nationals to be too cavalier with Strasburg. He has a good frame, but he has a violent motion. A stint on the 15 day DL, though, especially in light of the fact that Strasburg said he felt great the next day, seems like overkill.
Thankfully, we have two days until the trade deadline, so what I anticipate won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. As always, there will be a fight about the treatment of starting pitchers. As always, the old timers will say that pitchers should finish what they start. The younger, more stat based minds in the game will discuss the clear decline for almost every pitcher after 100 pitches, and how our scientific understanding of what the body goes through has changed. I think this time, the fight might pack more punch.
I think that the perfect storm has been brewing. For one, this 15 day DL stint is embarrassing. But let’s look past that. You have the top pick in the draft making an immediate, record setting difference for a club that has as much of a pulse as Vice President Dick Cheney.
The Context:
1.Baseball’s "Savior"
Perhaps you’ve heard – baseball has taken a bit of an image hit over the past several years. I think it might have something to do with lower home run totals…no that can’t be it. The TV ratings for Strasburg’s pro debut were one of the highest of the season. He has us excited to watch baseball again. Only this time, the pitchers are having their day, and the fireballers capture our imagination. No one plays catch in his back yard and imagines himself a crafty soft tossing righty. (Though we might be better off for it if more kids wanted to pitch like Greg Maddux.) The kids imagine themselves as Nolan Ryan or John Lester; blowing people away with ease.
Strasburg is phenomenally exciting to watch. He has fans interested in pitching again. He throws fireballs, and his curve and changeup are so devastating even a layperson can tell that they are filthy. Strasburg gets people who aren’t baseball fans to watch and enjoy it. The Nationals’ front office feels tremendous pressure to protect one of baseball’s most prized assets.
Strasburg didn’t get a chance to stretch his arm out. The progression of the minor league organizations is designed to give players just out of high school and college to gradually get better, build schools, but also to slowly get used to a longer season.
Tom Glavine faced this same problem his rookie year. He felt some shoulder soreness and stiffness early on his first preseason in Bradenton. Johnny Sain, a roving pitching instructor for the Braves (and immortalized in Jim Bouton’s Ball Four as the best pitching instructor Bouton had ever had), told Glavine he wasn’t going to shut it down—he made Glavine ramp it up a little bit. Sain had Glavine throw long toss for the next ten days in a row. Glavine felt soreness the first few days, but he was pain free by the end of the sixth day. By the tenth, Glavine was throwing 50 throws from 120 feet. Glavine was pain free for the rest of the season.
The notion of a pitching coach recommending that now is laughable. The coach would fired, if not shot, on the spot.
2.Poor handling of pitching Assets.
Some front offices go so far out of their way to protect their pitching assets that they may have ruined them. I have all the respect in the world for the Yankees front office, but need to use them here as an example of “room for improvement.”
Pitchers are creatures of habit if they are starters, and need to have a defined role if they are relievers. Joba Chamberlain was lights out as a reliever in 2007.
Then, the front office messed with his role several times, having him prepare as a stater then making him a reliever. Then he prepared as a starter and WAS a starter, but they screwed with his starts in the last five weeks of the season. No wonder the kid has lost confidence. Now, after two years of being screwed with, he is back in the bullpen and his numbers are suffering.
This is not to say that Chamberlain would have continued to be as for sure lights out as he was in 2007. I do think, however, that it would be more likely had the Yankees had a defined role and path for Chamberlain from the beginning.
Given those troubles, the “certainty” that innings limits must be imposed is not as infallible as it seemed a year ago. The blue print must have, at the very least, a defined path for the asset, so the true value and potential of the asset can be reached.
3.A Decade of Dominance
When I think the 90’s, I think two things: Yankees and Braves. The old baseball adage that pitching wins championships, or good pitching beats good pitching, was never more evident as it was when the Braves were stringing together that incredible run of 14 straight division titles. Leo Mazzone developed Tom Glavine, Steve Avery and John Smoltz in those early years. Greg Maddux also credits Mazzone for Maddux’s continued success in those years and later too.
The Braves faced unending arm injuries in the late 80’s. In an organizational meeting, Mazzone, who was a pitching instructor in the lower levels, presented a novel approach to a pitching regimen. Rather than playing long toss once and having one bullpen, the pitchers would throw a little more, but with a little less edge. Each starter would pitch two bullpen sessions, one at around 70%, the other around 80%. This allowed them to keep their arm stretched and loose, but also strong. It also allowed them to focus on feeling the seams and moving the ball, not just hurling it in there.
Throughout the 90’s and into the 00’s, this program not only worked for the core of the Brave’s staff, it also helped to revive some pitchers’ careers. Jaret Wright enjoyed resurgence after signing a one year contract with the Braves. He swore by Mazzone’s approach.
4.Everything’s bigger in Texas
While much of the league compiles data, counts innings and pitches like CPAs and looks for new brilliant ways to be called too progressive for baseball, one of the greatest pitchers of all time is on the cusp of purchasing his old baseball team. Nolan Ryan and his pitching coach, Mike Maddux, each believe in a more old school approach.
In 2008, Texas’s starting rotation pitched the fewest innings in the majors. They needed to improve. Nolan and Maddux decided that starting in spring training, pitchers would have tremendous focus on running to build legs and long toss and live batting practice to build arm strength.
Power pitchers such as Ryan use their legs to “drop and drive”, providing much of the power, and taking some of the strain off the shoulder. Running sprints and poles helps to build leg strength to do that. Long toss, especially straight days, builds arm strength while allowing pitchers to work on different grips. Pitching live batting practice also helps build up arm strength.
As applied to the Texas Rangers, this program took the Rangers from the least innings pitched from a starting staff to one that competed in innings pitched, taking pressure off the bullpen and proving that the return to old conditioning could be successful too.
Given all of those factors, once the baseball world is done talking trades, I think it might ignite an interesting debate. You know the baseball world can’t go four says without obsessing over Strasburg.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Trade Deadline Talk
As the non-waiver trade deadline approaches, speculation will run wild about which teams are buying, which teams are selling, and who is going to be traded. The Yankees have the best record in baseball, and it is safe to assume they will be buying. Speculation several weeks ago had Cashman shopping for another bat, but with the resurgence of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, that now seems less likely.
Given Joba Chamberlain’s recent struggles, and the overall lack on confidence in parts of the bullpen this season, a bullpen arm is a likely target. The most interesting thing, though, may be the clear sign of lack of faith in all five starters the Cliff Lee trade talk shows. (Given AJ Burnett’s tantrum this afternoon, forcing him to leave after 2 + innings, the lack of predictability was only further entrenched.) This post will speculate on potential targets for the trade deadline. Where possible, I may amuse myself with speculation of who may be traded. I warn you, though, I have no experience, so be prepared to laugh. Some may be close, some may just be laugh till you cry preposterous. Whichever they become for you, I hope you enjoy.
Bullpen Fix?
Relievers are generally inconsistent. The bridge to Rivera needs to be firm for the Yankees front office and Yankees fans to feel safe with a lead, and it is not, at the moment, exactly the model of consistency. Joba has struggled to hold leads recently. Given the way that he has been tossed back and forth from the ‘pen to a starter and back to the ‘pen again, I am not surprised. A young kid can say all he wants about doing whatever the team needs him to do, but this jostling has clearly affected his confidence. And who wouldn’t feel the same way?
If I were Cashman, I would stay within the organization. Relievers are tough to nail down. They are often inconsistent, and a good year once, or in one park, does not promise that reliever will remain good at his role for any period of time. Mid innings relievers and set-up men are often sold at enormously high prices at the trade deadline. This is not due to talent, but due to market economics. Teams in contention might feel the need to shore up the bullpen, and teams with solid relievers who are sellers take advantage of a pressing need by hiking up prices by way of prospects. If there is a way for a bullpen to be bolstered by looking within the organization, it should be done. (1) It is manageable in terms of price. It costs nothing, as there is no trade. As the player being brought up is likely already on the 40 man roster, it also costs nothing in terms of payroll. (2) While relievers are unpredictable, using a man form within the system makes it less unpredictable. The layer development staff and internal scouting departments all have a good handle on the player’s capabilities, weaknesses, and how to fix him when something goes wrong.
Phil Hughes:
This is a terrible idea. There is talk that some in the front office might want to try the same thing with Phil Hughes. Hughes has an innings limit, speculated to be around 180, which will approach by seasons’ end. The thought is that moving Hughes to the ‘pen will ensure he does not reach that limit. The same officials believe that Hughes will again be the dominant reliever he was last year.
Why this is a terrible ideal:
Hughes has been an incredible starter this year. He is 11-2, one of three Yankee starters with a good chance at winning 20 games. His WHIP is good, at 1.18. He has 91 strikeouts in 101 innings, with only 29 BB. His batting average against is .239, and his ERA is 3.65. Hughes has shown increased command of his fastball, particularly his cutter, and he has returned to using the 2-seamer he used so well in 2007 before he went down with injury. His curve remains above average if not good, and his changeup has come a long way. It is now almost a plus major league pitch.
When discussing Hughes, it is often forgotten that he is still quite young. Hughes is still only 24 and still developing. This year has been impressive; there is no question about it. Hughes has shown that he is capable of being the mid to front starter that Cashman and the Yankees believed he could be when they refused to trade him for Santana. But he still has a ways to go. Moving Hughes to the ‘pen and subjecting him to the same undefined role nonsense as Chamberlain would risk ruining all that Hughes has accomplished in the last two years.
The innings limit is a concern for me only when it gets to the end of the year, or the post season. Hughes has around 80 innings left if the guesses on his limit are accurate. That should last him, however, until September 1st, when rosters expand. While it would be ideal to have Hughes in the postseason rotation if he continues to pitch this way, only four starters are needed in the postseason, so the rotation could conceivably survive, though not in its strongest possible form (based on performance in the season thus far).
Hughes is a starter and will be a starter next year. He should stay a starter to make it easier on everyone, especially himself and the pitching coaches. Why try and toss a player still developing between two jobs? It takes long enough to learn one, let alone two.
My Pick: Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo spent parts of 2008 and 2009 with the Yankees. He struggled with some injury problems, but has seen an incredible resurgence this year. So far this year he has appeared in 40 games pitching 45.2 innings. He has allowed only 25 hits. His ERA is 0.99. Albaladejo’s BAA is .156. He leads all of AAA in saves with 30. His BB/K ratio is a very impressive 12/60. His command has clearly improved. With numbers like those, in fact, one wonders why he hasn’t received a call up already. Given his save numbers, Albaladejo clearly has no problem pitching in pressure packed situations. The Yankees should turn to him rather than trade should Joba lose his 8th inning job.
The Starter Situation
Don’t get me wrong – the Yankees’ staff has been impressive so far this season. They are, in fact, in the top three in the American League in ERA, quality starts, WHIP, K/9, and batting average against. But Javier Vazquez is a question mark, even with his recent improvements. AJ Burnett hurt his hand tonight throwing a tantrum in the clubhouse after the second inning. And the Cliff Lee trade proved that some in the front office don’t have full confidence in the staff, or at the very least that the Yankees know they can upgrade; even on an already impressive staff. Here, in no particular order, are the potential candidates the Yankees may target in the next two weeks:
Ricky Nolasco:
The word out tonight is that the Yankees had scouts at the Florida-Arizona game a week ago in which Nolasco faced Dan Haren. It is not clear which pitcher they were there to scout; it may have been both.
Nolasco is a strikeout pitcher, which is always a plus in Yankee Stadium. The ball can fly there, so anyone who can keep the ball on the ground or off bats is going to do pretty well. Nolasco is known to be a little inconsistent at times – he can struggle with his mechanics (and control, of course, as a result) and he is also injury prone. Nolasco has mostly projected as a mid-rotation starter with a plus fastball, a strong slider (that interestingly enough he holds as a hybrid – Mike Mussina’s knucklecurve grip, but on the seams the way Andy Pettitte holds his curve) and a decent change and splitter.
This year, Nolasco has not been plagued by the control problems he has been known to have. His K/BB ratio is an impressive 102/23. The rest of his numbers, though, are more pedestrian. In 116.0 innings pitched he has allowed 128 hits. His BAA is .280 and his WHIP is 1.30. Nolasco has also been plagued a bit by homeritis – he has given up 20 this season. His ERA is 4.66.
Nolasco is young, though, and relatively cheap, money wise, at least. He is arbitration eligible the next two years. For 2010, he in on a one year contract worth $3.8 million. Yankee manager Joe Girardi is very familiar with Nolasco – he managed him in 2006.
At four games under .500, and 9.5 games back in the NL East race, the Marlins may well be sellers leading up to the deadline. It would certainly be a feat to overcome the Phillies Braves and Mets to become contenders. Uggla will certainly be the most sought-after player on the Marlins, on whom they would get an excellent return. Cantu may also draw some interest. A trade with the Yankees, though, for Nolasco, may center around Montero. I say this not because Montero may be the centerpiece of almost any trade (though that may well be true) but because it makes perfect sense for the Marlins.
The Marlins lack a good major league catcher. Ronny Paulino does not project as more than a solid backup catcher. His bat is decent, showing some power. He has solid defensive skills, but there are questions about his ability to throw out runners. Montero would be a significant upgrade, even with his defensive questions. A team as young as Florida would not be crippled by a young developing catcher in the second half of this season. It would ac tually be perfect for Montero to get used to calling a big league game, and the Florida pitching staff, to prime the team for more success next year in a full season. Such a trade would obviously involve more pieces (perhaps Slade Heathcott? Florida lacks any depth at left field. Though Heathcott is a center fielder, he could surely add depth to an outfield depth chart, ot move himself), Montero is a solid centerpiece.
Dan Haren
Dan Haren is going to be one of the hottest topics leading to the deadline, and Arizona will take advantage. Haren is a great competitor, who will most likely enjoy the chance to play on a winning team; one that is not 19.5 games out of first place.
Haren rarely walks batters. His K/BB rate this season is 27/133. Given his impeccable control, he is prone to get hit, and hit hard. This is because he is always so close to the plate. This season he has given up 155 hits in 135 innings pitched, 21 of those being home runs. His WHIP is 1.35, his BAA is .287, and his ERA is 4.60. Despite all that, Haren is now one of the most sought after pitchers with Cliff Lee off the market. Rumor has it, though, that Arizona would have to be “blown away” by an offer. He may not be worth the price in prospects. The Detroit Tigers seem to be the most mentioned destination for Haren. Given his prowess, Haren is still surprisingly affordable at $8.25 million. He is under contract for the next two years at $12.5 million each, with a club option in 2013 for $15.5 million. This incredibly cheap contract for someone of Haren’s talent is most likely the reason Arizona would have to be blown away by a trade offer.
Fausto Carmona
Carmona has enjoyed a revival of sorts this year. His record may not show, playing for the Indians, but Carmona is back to his olf self, the one who won 19 games in 2007. Carmona’s ERA is down to 3.65. He has only allowed 113 hits in 123.1 innings pitched. His BAA against is .248 and his WHIP is 1.31. He has suffered a little with his control, as his BB/K ratio is 49/64. That clearly has not hurt him too much. Most impressive, though, is that he has only allowed 7 home runs.
The low home run total is undoubtedly due to Carmona’s ground ball tendencies. He throws a low to mid-90’s sinker, along with a hard slider and a changeup. He has good control of the latter two pitches, though they are often near the strike zone and not in it. When batters do not chase his off-speed stuff is when he struggles with his command. Carmona throws his fastball 75% of the time, mostly hand side of the plate. It gets results though, even when he struggles early in starts, as most sinkerballers do.
Carmona is under contract through next year, with three option years after that. This year he is due $4.9 million, next year $6.1 million, then $7, $9, and $12 million for the option years. The Indians have invested a bunch of time and effort into Carmona, though, especially after his bad 2008 campaign. One also must consider whether or not Cleveland will be willing to let another solid top of the rotation guy get away. The team would almost certainly want a bounty in return, even though Carmona isn’t in the same league as Sabathia and Lee.
The Indians, though, wildly underperformed last year after being expected to seriously contend. A glance at their depth chart shows a need in almost every area. This is especially true in the closer spot, as Wood has just gone on the DL again. I really think there is no way to predict a trade price on this one unless one owns a crystal ball or actually works in the Cleveland front office.
Carl Pavano
No, I didn’t even write that with a straight face. But given how well he is pitching, wouldn’t that be funny? I think there would be riots.
Roy Oswalt
I’ll preface this by saying I think Oswalt is too much of a country boy to ever want to play in New York. But is is worth exploring. Oswalt, as always, has been phenomenal this year. In 120.0 innings pitched he has only allowed 93 hits. He has a BB/K ratio of 33/112, with a brilliant WHIP of 1.05 and a BAA of .213, His ERA is 3.08. He has only allowed 11 home runs. That may make him ideal for Yankee Stadium, if only he wanted to play in a big city.
Oswalt is known for his sniper like control and his durability. With his full no trade clause, it will be really interesting to watch Oswalt balance his desire to finally win with his small town roots. One of his favorite parts about the Astros was the owner, McLane’s, connection to his small town roots. Nothing about New York City or the Yankees screams small town roots. Nor does Hal Steinbrenner strike me as the type of guy to purchase Roy a tractor should he win 20 games two straight years, as McLane did.
Eventually, though, every true competitor wants a chance to win. Will Oswalt instruct the Astros to send him to a big city if it means a chance to contend for a few years? He certainly deserves the chance. He is owed $15 million this year, and $16 million next year. There is a club option for 2012 at $16 million, with a $2 million buyout.
Given what Oswalt has meant to the Astros franchise, the price will most likely start staggeringly high. Since Oswalt requested a trade, that price may begin to plummet as the trading deadline approaches. Oswalt may raise hell if he has to suffer through another losing season in the Texas heat and wait until winter to make the move.
Given Joba Chamberlain’s recent struggles, and the overall lack on confidence in parts of the bullpen this season, a bullpen arm is a likely target. The most interesting thing, though, may be the clear sign of lack of faith in all five starters the Cliff Lee trade talk shows. (Given AJ Burnett’s tantrum this afternoon, forcing him to leave after 2 + innings, the lack of predictability was only further entrenched.) This post will speculate on potential targets for the trade deadline. Where possible, I may amuse myself with speculation of who may be traded. I warn you, though, I have no experience, so be prepared to laugh. Some may be close, some may just be laugh till you cry preposterous. Whichever they become for you, I hope you enjoy.
Bullpen Fix?
Relievers are generally inconsistent. The bridge to Rivera needs to be firm for the Yankees front office and Yankees fans to feel safe with a lead, and it is not, at the moment, exactly the model of consistency. Joba has struggled to hold leads recently. Given the way that he has been tossed back and forth from the ‘pen to a starter and back to the ‘pen again, I am not surprised. A young kid can say all he wants about doing whatever the team needs him to do, but this jostling has clearly affected his confidence. And who wouldn’t feel the same way?
If I were Cashman, I would stay within the organization. Relievers are tough to nail down. They are often inconsistent, and a good year once, or in one park, does not promise that reliever will remain good at his role for any period of time. Mid innings relievers and set-up men are often sold at enormously high prices at the trade deadline. This is not due to talent, but due to market economics. Teams in contention might feel the need to shore up the bullpen, and teams with solid relievers who are sellers take advantage of a pressing need by hiking up prices by way of prospects. If there is a way for a bullpen to be bolstered by looking within the organization, it should be done. (1) It is manageable in terms of price. It costs nothing, as there is no trade. As the player being brought up is likely already on the 40 man roster, it also costs nothing in terms of payroll. (2) While relievers are unpredictable, using a man form within the system makes it less unpredictable. The layer development staff and internal scouting departments all have a good handle on the player’s capabilities, weaknesses, and how to fix him when something goes wrong.
Phil Hughes:
This is a terrible idea. There is talk that some in the front office might want to try the same thing with Phil Hughes. Hughes has an innings limit, speculated to be around 180, which will approach by seasons’ end. The thought is that moving Hughes to the ‘pen will ensure he does not reach that limit. The same officials believe that Hughes will again be the dominant reliever he was last year.
Why this is a terrible ideal:
Hughes has been an incredible starter this year. He is 11-2, one of three Yankee starters with a good chance at winning 20 games. His WHIP is good, at 1.18. He has 91 strikeouts in 101 innings, with only 29 BB. His batting average against is .239, and his ERA is 3.65. Hughes has shown increased command of his fastball, particularly his cutter, and he has returned to using the 2-seamer he used so well in 2007 before he went down with injury. His curve remains above average if not good, and his changeup has come a long way. It is now almost a plus major league pitch.
When discussing Hughes, it is often forgotten that he is still quite young. Hughes is still only 24 and still developing. This year has been impressive; there is no question about it. Hughes has shown that he is capable of being the mid to front starter that Cashman and the Yankees believed he could be when they refused to trade him for Santana. But he still has a ways to go. Moving Hughes to the ‘pen and subjecting him to the same undefined role nonsense as Chamberlain would risk ruining all that Hughes has accomplished in the last two years.
The innings limit is a concern for me only when it gets to the end of the year, or the post season. Hughes has around 80 innings left if the guesses on his limit are accurate. That should last him, however, until September 1st, when rosters expand. While it would be ideal to have Hughes in the postseason rotation if he continues to pitch this way, only four starters are needed in the postseason, so the rotation could conceivably survive, though not in its strongest possible form (based on performance in the season thus far).
Hughes is a starter and will be a starter next year. He should stay a starter to make it easier on everyone, especially himself and the pitching coaches. Why try and toss a player still developing between two jobs? It takes long enough to learn one, let alone two.
My Pick: Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo spent parts of 2008 and 2009 with the Yankees. He struggled with some injury problems, but has seen an incredible resurgence this year. So far this year he has appeared in 40 games pitching 45.2 innings. He has allowed only 25 hits. His ERA is 0.99. Albaladejo’s BAA is .156. He leads all of AAA in saves with 30. His BB/K ratio is a very impressive 12/60. His command has clearly improved. With numbers like those, in fact, one wonders why he hasn’t received a call up already. Given his save numbers, Albaladejo clearly has no problem pitching in pressure packed situations. The Yankees should turn to him rather than trade should Joba lose his 8th inning job.
The Starter Situation
Don’t get me wrong – the Yankees’ staff has been impressive so far this season. They are, in fact, in the top three in the American League in ERA, quality starts, WHIP, K/9, and batting average against. But Javier Vazquez is a question mark, even with his recent improvements. AJ Burnett hurt his hand tonight throwing a tantrum in the clubhouse after the second inning. And the Cliff Lee trade proved that some in the front office don’t have full confidence in the staff, or at the very least that the Yankees know they can upgrade; even on an already impressive staff. Here, in no particular order, are the potential candidates the Yankees may target in the next two weeks:
Ricky Nolasco:
The word out tonight is that the Yankees had scouts at the Florida-Arizona game a week ago in which Nolasco faced Dan Haren. It is not clear which pitcher they were there to scout; it may have been both.
Nolasco is a strikeout pitcher, which is always a plus in Yankee Stadium. The ball can fly there, so anyone who can keep the ball on the ground or off bats is going to do pretty well. Nolasco is known to be a little inconsistent at times – he can struggle with his mechanics (and control, of course, as a result) and he is also injury prone. Nolasco has mostly projected as a mid-rotation starter with a plus fastball, a strong slider (that interestingly enough he holds as a hybrid – Mike Mussina’s knucklecurve grip, but on the seams the way Andy Pettitte holds his curve) and a decent change and splitter.
This year, Nolasco has not been plagued by the control problems he has been known to have. His K/BB ratio is an impressive 102/23. The rest of his numbers, though, are more pedestrian. In 116.0 innings pitched he has allowed 128 hits. His BAA is .280 and his WHIP is 1.30. Nolasco has also been plagued a bit by homeritis – he has given up 20 this season. His ERA is 4.66.
Nolasco is young, though, and relatively cheap, money wise, at least. He is arbitration eligible the next two years. For 2010, he in on a one year contract worth $3.8 million. Yankee manager Joe Girardi is very familiar with Nolasco – he managed him in 2006.
At four games under .500, and 9.5 games back in the NL East race, the Marlins may well be sellers leading up to the deadline. It would certainly be a feat to overcome the Phillies Braves and Mets to become contenders. Uggla will certainly be the most sought-after player on the Marlins, on whom they would get an excellent return. Cantu may also draw some interest. A trade with the Yankees, though, for Nolasco, may center around Montero. I say this not because Montero may be the centerpiece of almost any trade (though that may well be true) but because it makes perfect sense for the Marlins.
The Marlins lack a good major league catcher. Ronny Paulino does not project as more than a solid backup catcher. His bat is decent, showing some power. He has solid defensive skills, but there are questions about his ability to throw out runners. Montero would be a significant upgrade, even with his defensive questions. A team as young as Florida would not be crippled by a young developing catcher in the second half of this season. It would ac tually be perfect for Montero to get used to calling a big league game, and the Florida pitching staff, to prime the team for more success next year in a full season. Such a trade would obviously involve more pieces (perhaps Slade Heathcott? Florida lacks any depth at left field. Though Heathcott is a center fielder, he could surely add depth to an outfield depth chart, ot move himself), Montero is a solid centerpiece.
Dan Haren
Dan Haren is going to be one of the hottest topics leading to the deadline, and Arizona will take advantage. Haren is a great competitor, who will most likely enjoy the chance to play on a winning team; one that is not 19.5 games out of first place.
Haren rarely walks batters. His K/BB rate this season is 27/133. Given his impeccable control, he is prone to get hit, and hit hard. This is because he is always so close to the plate. This season he has given up 155 hits in 135 innings pitched, 21 of those being home runs. His WHIP is 1.35, his BAA is .287, and his ERA is 4.60. Despite all that, Haren is now one of the most sought after pitchers with Cliff Lee off the market. Rumor has it, though, that Arizona would have to be “blown away” by an offer. He may not be worth the price in prospects. The Detroit Tigers seem to be the most mentioned destination for Haren. Given his prowess, Haren is still surprisingly affordable at $8.25 million. He is under contract for the next two years at $12.5 million each, with a club option in 2013 for $15.5 million. This incredibly cheap contract for someone of Haren’s talent is most likely the reason Arizona would have to be blown away by a trade offer.
Fausto Carmona
Carmona has enjoyed a revival of sorts this year. His record may not show, playing for the Indians, but Carmona is back to his olf self, the one who won 19 games in 2007. Carmona’s ERA is down to 3.65. He has only allowed 113 hits in 123.1 innings pitched. His BAA against is .248 and his WHIP is 1.31. He has suffered a little with his control, as his BB/K ratio is 49/64. That clearly has not hurt him too much. Most impressive, though, is that he has only allowed 7 home runs.
The low home run total is undoubtedly due to Carmona’s ground ball tendencies. He throws a low to mid-90’s sinker, along with a hard slider and a changeup. He has good control of the latter two pitches, though they are often near the strike zone and not in it. When batters do not chase his off-speed stuff is when he struggles with his command. Carmona throws his fastball 75% of the time, mostly hand side of the plate. It gets results though, even when he struggles early in starts, as most sinkerballers do.
Carmona is under contract through next year, with three option years after that. This year he is due $4.9 million, next year $6.1 million, then $7, $9, and $12 million for the option years. The Indians have invested a bunch of time and effort into Carmona, though, especially after his bad 2008 campaign. One also must consider whether or not Cleveland will be willing to let another solid top of the rotation guy get away. The team would almost certainly want a bounty in return, even though Carmona isn’t in the same league as Sabathia and Lee.
The Indians, though, wildly underperformed last year after being expected to seriously contend. A glance at their depth chart shows a need in almost every area. This is especially true in the closer spot, as Wood has just gone on the DL again. I really think there is no way to predict a trade price on this one unless one owns a crystal ball or actually works in the Cleveland front office.
Carl Pavano
No, I didn’t even write that with a straight face. But given how well he is pitching, wouldn’t that be funny? I think there would be riots.
Roy Oswalt
I’ll preface this by saying I think Oswalt is too much of a country boy to ever want to play in New York. But is is worth exploring. Oswalt, as always, has been phenomenal this year. In 120.0 innings pitched he has only allowed 93 hits. He has a BB/K ratio of 33/112, with a brilliant WHIP of 1.05 and a BAA of .213, His ERA is 3.08. He has only allowed 11 home runs. That may make him ideal for Yankee Stadium, if only he wanted to play in a big city.
Oswalt is known for his sniper like control and his durability. With his full no trade clause, it will be really interesting to watch Oswalt balance his desire to finally win with his small town roots. One of his favorite parts about the Astros was the owner, McLane’s, connection to his small town roots. Nothing about New York City or the Yankees screams small town roots. Nor does Hal Steinbrenner strike me as the type of guy to purchase Roy a tractor should he win 20 games two straight years, as McLane did.
Eventually, though, every true competitor wants a chance to win. Will Oswalt instruct the Astros to send him to a big city if it means a chance to contend for a few years? He certainly deserves the chance. He is owed $15 million this year, and $16 million next year. There is a club option for 2012 at $16 million, with a $2 million buyout.
Given what Oswalt has meant to the Astros franchise, the price will most likely start staggeringly high. Since Oswalt requested a trade, that price may begin to plummet as the trading deadline approaches. Oswalt may raise hell if he has to suffer through another losing season in the Texas heat and wait until winter to make the move.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
In Memorium
“The Voice of God.”
“His death leaves a lasting silence.”
“Players changed year in and year out. He was the one constant.”
“A voice that you hear in your dreams; your sleep.”
“When you think of all the great players he has announced, when you think of the old stadium, there is no doubt you think about him and what he has done for the organization.”
“When you think of Bob Sheppard you think of all the tradition with the Yankees. You think about Ruth and Gehrig and Yogi and Joe D and Mantle, and I think you mention Bob Sheppard.”
“The most distinguished and dignified voice in all of professional sports.”
“There will never be another like him.”
“Every time he says my name, I get goose bumps.” (To which Sheppard replied softly, “Mickey, so do I.”)
His own words: “A PA announcer is not a cheerleader or a circus barker, or a hometown screecher. He’s a reporter.”
Forgive a small departure from my promised format. Any blog devoted to anything related to baseball would be remiss to not take a moment to appreciate one of baseball’s greats. For those of you who have not heard Bob Sheppard’s voice, go to EPN or YouTube and find it; it is truly, as Reggie Jackson said, “the Voice of God.”
Much has been said and written about Sheppard’s career, his approach, his civility and his eloquence. This will not pretend to be those things. This is simply a moment to remember a legend. Bob Sheppard announced three perfect games in Yankee stadium. He announced the names of over 70 Hall of Famers. He announced 62 World Series games, and 121 straight post season games.
He was there for Mickey Mantle’s debut, and finale. He was there for Larson’s perfect game in the ’56 World Series. He was there for the three-peat in ’98, ’99, and ’00. He was there when Roger Maris hit his 61ist home run – he was there when Reggie Jackson hit three on three swings in the ’77 World Series.
He lasted so long in his post that fathers, sons, and grandsons all well up from familiarity at the sound of his voice. He is the only non-player recognized with a plaque in Yankee Stadium’s Monument Park.
One can only hope that Sheppard’s immortalization in that revered alter in baseball’s Great Cathedral will buy him a ticker to whatever form of speech and baseball heaven he desires. I hope he has found his way to a place where he can “be clear, be concise, be correct” and witness an afterlife ballgame worth his illustrious run.
Sheppard said towards the end of his life “I don’t go to work . . . I go to a ballgame.” Here’s hoping that’s where you end up, Mr. Sheppard.
“His death leaves a lasting silence.”
“Players changed year in and year out. He was the one constant.”
“A voice that you hear in your dreams; your sleep.”
“When you think of all the great players he has announced, when you think of the old stadium, there is no doubt you think about him and what he has done for the organization.”
“When you think of Bob Sheppard you think of all the tradition with the Yankees. You think about Ruth and Gehrig and Yogi and Joe D and Mantle, and I think you mention Bob Sheppard.”
“The most distinguished and dignified voice in all of professional sports.”
“There will never be another like him.”
“Every time he says my name, I get goose bumps.” (To which Sheppard replied softly, “Mickey, so do I.”)
His own words: “A PA announcer is not a cheerleader or a circus barker, or a hometown screecher. He’s a reporter.”
Forgive a small departure from my promised format. Any blog devoted to anything related to baseball would be remiss to not take a moment to appreciate one of baseball’s greats. For those of you who have not heard Bob Sheppard’s voice, go to EPN or YouTube and find it; it is truly, as Reggie Jackson said, “the Voice of God.”
Much has been said and written about Sheppard’s career, his approach, his civility and his eloquence. This will not pretend to be those things. This is simply a moment to remember a legend. Bob Sheppard announced three perfect games in Yankee stadium. He announced the names of over 70 Hall of Famers. He announced 62 World Series games, and 121 straight post season games.
He was there for Mickey Mantle’s debut, and finale. He was there for Larson’s perfect game in the ’56 World Series. He was there for the three-peat in ’98, ’99, and ’00. He was there when Roger Maris hit his 61ist home run – he was there when Reggie Jackson hit three on three swings in the ’77 World Series.
He lasted so long in his post that fathers, sons, and grandsons all well up from familiarity at the sound of his voice. He is the only non-player recognized with a plaque in Yankee Stadium’s Monument Park.
One can only hope that Sheppard’s immortalization in that revered alter in baseball’s Great Cathedral will buy him a ticker to whatever form of speech and baseball heaven he desires. I hope he has found his way to a place where he can “be clear, be concise, be correct” and witness an afterlife ballgame worth his illustrious run.
Sheppard said towards the end of his life “I don’t go to work . . . I go to a ballgame.” Here’s hoping that’s where you end up, Mr. Sheppard.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
The Case for Kevin Youkilis over Nick Swisher
The MLB Channel announced about two hours ago that Joey Votto and Nick Swisher were the final fan votes to complete the All Star rosters. Congratulations to both of them. It is quite an honor. In Votto’s case, I think an egregious wrong was finally righted. He deserved to be on the initial roster. I think Swisher is also deserving of being an All Star, but I think he beat out someone more deserving.
Nick Swisher is a great guy. And given how much he has spoken about what an honor making the All Star team would be, I am very happy for him. And, like any Yankee fan, I am pleased with how much representation we have (though I think 7 is overkill, and would submit Alex Rodriguez was also not totally deserving of his appointment). But did the fans really just vote Swisher in over Youkilis?
Please do not take this as me diminishing Swisher’s accomplishment, or season. He is very deserving as well. Swisher is currently hitting .298. His OBP is .376, and he is slugging .518. He also has 14 home runs and 48 RBIs. These numbers are impressive, especially when you consider they come in a line up where he is surrounded by A-Rod, Tex, Cano, etc. That Swisher is so productive is probably a bit a product of that lineup, and being a switch hitter in a lefty friendly Yankee Stadium (7 of his home runs have come at Yankee Stadium and 11 from the left side).
Compare Swisher’s numbers, though, to Youkilis’s. Youk is hitting .292, with a .409 OBP. He is slugging .574 with 17 home runs, 55 RBIs. His OPS is .983 compared to Swisher’s .895. The only statistical category in which Swisher enjoys an advantage is batting average. I would submit, as many have before me, and on base percentage is a far more valuable stat.
The Yankees did run an aggressive campaign for Swisher, including a commercial broadcast online and in New York. Is an aggressive media campaign truly what put one man over the other? I have not seen the final vote tally yet, but surely anyone reading can see that Youkilis probably deserved much more consideration than he got. He is more qualified. This, again, demonstrates the problem with letting fans vote for who makes the team.
Nick Swisher is a great guy. And given how much he has spoken about what an honor making the All Star team would be, I am very happy for him. And, like any Yankee fan, I am pleased with how much representation we have (though I think 7 is overkill, and would submit Alex Rodriguez was also not totally deserving of his appointment). But did the fans really just vote Swisher in over Youkilis?
Please do not take this as me diminishing Swisher’s accomplishment, or season. He is very deserving as well. Swisher is currently hitting .298. His OBP is .376, and he is slugging .518. He also has 14 home runs and 48 RBIs. These numbers are impressive, especially when you consider they come in a line up where he is surrounded by A-Rod, Tex, Cano, etc. That Swisher is so productive is probably a bit a product of that lineup, and being a switch hitter in a lefty friendly Yankee Stadium (7 of his home runs have come at Yankee Stadium and 11 from the left side).
Compare Swisher’s numbers, though, to Youkilis’s. Youk is hitting .292, with a .409 OBP. He is slugging .574 with 17 home runs, 55 RBIs. His OPS is .983 compared to Swisher’s .895. The only statistical category in which Swisher enjoys an advantage is batting average. I would submit, as many have before me, and on base percentage is a far more valuable stat.
The Yankees did run an aggressive campaign for Swisher, including a commercial broadcast online and in New York. Is an aggressive media campaign truly what put one man over the other? I have not seen the final vote tally yet, but surely anyone reading can see that Youkilis probably deserved much more consideration than he got. He is more qualified. This, again, demonstrates the problem with letting fans vote for who makes the team.
The beginning: All Star discussions and Tampa Bay's future
This blog will feature front office based dicussions about baseball. I will do my best to offer informed opinions. I do not pretend to be an expert, just an avid baseball fan who dreams of working in a baseball front office some day. Each post, which I will try to do daily, but will surely fail, will feature not only timely discussions of present issues in baseball, but also things I find interesting to think ahead or back about. Enjoy.
Should the All Star Game determine World Series home advantage?
No. This is one of the most embarrassing aspects of baseball. The All-Star game, once a vaunted and celebrated event, might be one of the biggest jokes in professional sports. The fans get to pick the starting lineup? Seriously? I must have somehow slept through the year Selig declared the “All-Star Game” officially my “high school prom court.” Turn your TV on to a baseball game. Look at the crowd. That shirtless, keg bellied guy with paint on his bald scalp and hairy stomach? He’s going to go home and cast his 25 votes tonight. And every night after that. And you know someone like that won’t be analyzing OPS, VORP, win shares added or even the simple stats like RBIs and batting average. No. He votes for his favorite player, who he sees on the Sportscenter highlight reels the most.
It’s bad enough America has to deal with those fools from Ohio and Florida deciding presidential elections each year. Why does Joe “painted body” Hotdog get to pick who the All-Star players are? Perhaps baseball has someone more qualified to offer for selection . . .
Also worth noting is this – for some reason escaping understanding, each team must have representation at the game. Forgetting the entirely unfounded and unsubstantiated premise that this suggests each team is somehow at least on par with all the others, it will most likely deny other far more deserving players. Do we really believe that the Oakland Athletics deserve representation at the game this year? Are we really ready for that to mean that Andy Pettitte or Phil Hughes has to stay home?
Or worse – this must be the Atlanta Braves’ nightmare. Yadier Molina is at the plate, facing Mariano Rivera in the ninth, two out, down a run, with Jose Reyes on third. Do the Braves rest their home field advantage hopes on this scenario? Should they have to?
Why Stephen Strasburg should have been an All-Star.
By now, everyone knows the stats. He set a record for the most strikeouts in the first five appearances. 48 strikeouts in 31.2 innings pitched. A BB/K ratio of 7/48. A .217 batting average against. Fourteen strikeouts and no walks in his major league debut. A record of 2-2. And ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.01. He has started five games.
Proponents of Strasburg in the All-Star game will argue his stats. The BB/K ration and WHIP in particular are strong points substantiating this young man making the All-Star roster. They will note his plus fastball, which touches 100 (oh, and it has ridiculous movement), his filthy curveball, and his 90 mph changeup, which seems almost unhittable. In Strasburg, baseball not only has a new ticket selling phenomenon, but an incredibly hyped pitcher who is actually living up to or exceeding his expectations.
Opponents of this idea will most often cite his limited experience. How can he be an All-Star if he has only had five starts? He hasn’t even been in the big leagues half a season, they say, surely there are people with more seniority who are also as deserving.
In light of that argument, it is worth reviewing the circumstances under which Strasburg’s career path began. In spring training, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said they would make a decision on Strasburg that allowed the Nationals to put their best competitive team on the field. Naturally, that meant Strasburg went to AA. (Wait, something doesn’t add up . . .) Listen, I will be the first person to advocate for bringing pitchers along slowly. In fact, I think they should be prohibited from pitching in the bigs in their first season. However, don’t sell your fans a bridge.
The Nationals sent Strasburg to AA for “development”? What, precisely, was developed in those five AA starts? Nothing but expectations. Strasburg wasn’t put in a single situation that tested him! The five in AAA? Are we to believe those twenty-five days are when Strasburg mastered that change-up? I’m not buying it. It is time for someone to finally say, out loud, that the Nationals pulled the same nonsense with Strasburg that the Tampa Bay Rays pulled with Evan Longoria. (This issue will be addressed in a later post in greater detail.) By bringing him up later, the Nationals retain control of Strasburg for a year longer. So please, sell it to your fans as keeping him longer, not “development.” That’s being dishonest to your fans.
But back to the point – why punish Strasburg for a managerial decision he has no control over? He has been phenomenal – one of the best pitchers since he has come up. Some commentators are talking about needing more time to “earn” your way on to the team. (Setting aside the point that letting idiot fans vote players on isn’t the players “earning” anything . . .) If your talent is All-Star caliber, then you deserve to make the All-Star team. Other pitchers deserve it more; Halladay, Jiminez, among others, but Strasburg deserves a spot. He shouldn’t suffer because owners wanted to keep him a year longer.
More importantly, though, that is the point of the All-Star game? Is it to have the best talent in the major leagues get together to play a game? If that’s the case, let Strasburg pitch an inning. He is surely one of the best talent in the National League. Is it to make money on a dog and pony circus show? (Perhaps by . . . letting fans vote for the starting lineup? And making it the deciding factor in which league gets home field advantage for the World Series? You get the point . . .) If that is the case, perhaps there is someone more deserving. Is Barnum or Bailey available to pitch that night?
As a closing point, it is worth noting that this kid is so humble, he would be embarrassed this discussion is even going on. He doesn’t want special treatment he says. But he deserves this.
Tampa Bay
There are two ways to sum up Tampa Bay’s recent and continued success as a baseball team. One is a brilliant scouting organization that got leveraged into careful draft selection, coupled with an excellent player development program and a manager whose personality best fits the team, its philosophy and its approach. The other is that there is no way you can suck that bad for that long and not stumble into boatloads of talent given the makeup of the amateur draft.
I mean, seriously: Carl Crawford, David Price, B.J. Upton, and Evan Longoria (not to mention the departed top draft picks of Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young).
After today’s comeback against the Red Sox, the Rays are in second place in the American League East. The Red Sox are in third, 2 ½ games behind the Yankees, who are in first. The AL East has become a dogfight. It looked early on to only be the Yankees and Rays, but the Red Sox mounted an impressive comeback, one that has continued, at least so far, through eight key players being on the DL.
By now, the incredible turn around the Rays made between 2007 and 2008 is well chronicled. 96 losses in 2007 to 97 wins in 2008, and a spot in the World Series. Of course, after losing that series the Rays won only 85 games in 2009 and missed the playoffs, but they proved to the world that the Rays of 2008 were not a fluke. Tampa Bay is indeed a team to be reckoned with. The Rays spent much of the first half of the season in first place, so it is clear that they are in the thick of it again. “But for how long?” one must ask. Granted, the Rays had many years with high picks in the draft, and they made spectacular use of them. But some of the Rays’ best talent is reaching either free agency or arbitration eligible years.
Scott Kazmir, for example, was becoming far too expensive for the Rays. They traded him last August for an excellent return: Alex Torres, a left hander who Baseball America ranks as the number 9 prospect in the Rays’ system now; Matt Sweeny. A left handed hitting third baseman (who projects decent power numbers) ranked by Baseball America as the number 24 prospect in the Rays’ system; and Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez plays second base for the Rays now. In 64 games so far, he is batting .281 with a .314 OBP. Rodriguez also has six steals and 29 RBIs.
Kazmir is the wins and innings pitched leader for Tampa Bay. Amid growing concerns about his command and cost, though, Tampa shipped him to Anaheim. Kazmir made $6 million in 2009, and was set to make $8 million in 2010. With Tampa’s payroll constraints, Kazmir’s salary was going to be tough to manage. The team got a very good return, and Kazmir’s control problems have continued. Kazmir ended last season with a 60/117 BB.K ratio. This season projects to be slightly worse; just past the halfway point his BB/K ratio is 41/55. (Kazmir is also 3rd in the majors in walks allowed.) Furthermore, his WHIP is an unimpressive 1.56.
Upcoming Tampa Free Agents:
Carl Crawford
It seems every time I turn on ESPN these days, they are talking about LeBron James. I don’t expect Crawford to be a free agent of THAT magnitude, but you can bet he will draw heavy interest. At the start of this season, I assumed Crawford was all but being fit for Yankee pinstripes. Crawford is such a phenomenal athlete and such a star; this has the feel of one of those stars the Yankees just can’t pass up. Then I remembered not everyone only plays for the money. This may especially true with Crawford, who has close ties to his team. Crawford broke into the big leagues with Rays in 2002, and has grown with the team as the team has grown with him. This will be a fascinating winter. Imagine how torn Crawford must feel. Now that the team he helped build is proving it can win on a regular basis, I assume there is a deep sense of loyalty pulling him to stay. Yet there must be the money draw. Crawford is set to make $10 million this season, though it could rise to $11.5 with the built-in escalators.
Keeping in mind at just how high Tampa’s payroll will jump with arbitration eligible players (they have 10 players who are arbitration eligible after the 2010 season), this numbers game complicates the matter further. Tampa has a record high (for them) 72 million payroll this year. Last year’s market was interesting. There were not many marquee names, and owners were insisting on penny pinching. The top two left fielders were miles apart in their contracts. Matt Holliday, the top free agent, signed for seven years and $120 million. That is an annual average of $17 million and change a year. Jason Bay, the number two free agent, signed for four years and 66 million, for an average annual value of $16.5 million.
Prediction: There is no way Crawford stays. He will command a contract around 6 years, $18-$20 million a year (perhaps more). There will be an aggressive bidding war. Too many teams need his speed and his defense. The Rays will make a concerted effort, for sure, but cannot afford the price tag Crawford will command.
Ray’s Recover: Desmond Jennings may make Rays fans forget about Crawford very quickly. As the top Rays’ Baseball America prospect, Jennings has a high ceiling. Jennings is set to break into the show in 2011 (and just in time given Crawford’s expected departure). Even more exciting for Rays fans is this: Jennings may even be an upgrade from Crawford.
Jennings has incredible speed, and it is combined with good power. Between AA and AAA last year he had 52 stolen bases. His slugging percentage was .491. This season, those numbers are 20 stolen bases with 2 caught stealing, and a .423 slugging percentage. More impressive, though, is his OBP. Which is .371 this season, and was .419 last season at AAA. Adding to his impressive resume, Jennings was the only minor leaguer to have 50 extra base hits and steal 50 bases last season. Baseball America lauds his plate discipline, and notes that with his speed, power is secondary. He gets on base often, and with his base-stealing ability, a single could easily become a double whenever Jennings chooses. This speed also helps his defensive range, which is listed at gap to gap as a center fielder. Some speculate that Jennings is so strong defensively that when he arrives in the bigs, Upton will move to a corner position.
Carlos Pena
Pena has found an incredible home and career resurgence in Tampa. Starting in 2001, Pena went from Texas to Detroit, with time at Oakland and Boston before landing in Tampa in 2007. His power numbers took off that year, as he hit 46 homers and slugged .627 with an OPS of 1.038. His next two years saw a drop in average, but his home runs and slugging percentage stayed fairly high, at 31 and 39 and .494 and .537 respectively. This year is not as eye popping. Tampa’s Joe Madden thinks Pena might be pressing. He is in the walk year of his contract, so he probably feels tremendous pressure. Pena does have 16 homers, but eight of those came in early July when he hit six in six straight games. He is currently hitting .201. His slugging percentage is down to .402 and his OBP is an uncharacteristically low .316.
Pena is making $10.125 million this season, the last of a three year contract. Albert Pujols will unquestionably headline the 2011 free agent class. Adam Dunn is also in the group of 2011 potential free agents, so the market value of Pena’s contract is difficult to guess at this point. A wild unscientific guess would put Pujols in the $20 million + range, 4-6 years. Given Pena’s age, and his decline so far this season, he might not get higher than a three year contract. I would even venture 1-2, $10-13 million. As with Crawford, it seems unlikely that Tampa will swing such a high contract.
I think it is in Pena’s best interests to stay; even if it meant something like a two to three year deal for $ 16 or $24 million. Tampa is the only place he has found career success, and he seems to fit well with the personality of the club, a characteristic many free agents seem to ignore. Why not stay and play where one has found success and comfort? Before the start of the season, Pena expressed his love for Tampa and his desire to stay with a long term contract. I am not sure if a long term deal is in the cars, especially with Pena’s advanced age (as compared to a very young rest of the team) and the trend in shorter contracts. Especially with Pena’s price tag, and all the talent coming up through the Rays; system, any more than three years would be surprising to me.
The X-factor in all of this is Scott Boras. Perhaps, when there is a slow news day, I will devote an entire post to my feelings on Scott Boras. They are too numerous to go into now. Surely, though, you can expect that Boras will be in Pena’s ear, like the cartoon small devil that sits on the shoulder of a character attempting to make a decision, whispering about how much money Pena deserves. Boras will run the negotiations to the very end, and will try and squeeze every dollar possible out of the deal. Don’t be surprised if the famous “mystery bidder” (how in the world do teams continue to fall for that, by the way?) shows up in the process.
Prediction: Pena will want to resign with Tampa, but he will want almost twice as many years as the Rays are willing to give him. Boras gets in Pena’s ear about how much money and years he is worth (keep in mind this is an agent who tried to get Johnny Damon a 7 year contract last offseason) and confuses the situation. Pena will not get the years or money he wants anywhere, but a second team offers more money, which Boras somehow convinces Pena to take. At that point, Pena’s lack of comfort leads to lack of confidence, and his numbers plummet.
Tampa’s response/replacement:
Jeff Malm was drafted in the fifth round out of high school by the rays. He has a nice left handed stroke (which might be a plus – a left handed bat to replace Pena’s in the lineup, eventually) and can play slightly above average defense. In high school, Malm tied a national high school record with 277 career hits, though scouts have raised some questions about how his power will translate to wooden bats. He is currently considered an average power prospect, though there is potential for more. Malm only played in 7 games for the Gulf Coast Rays last season, with 25 at bats. There is a limited sample size, then, with which to judge him. Malm batted .240 with a .296 OBP.
This season, with the Princeton Rays, Malm is still having troubles. In 47 at bats he is hitting .149 with an OBP of .245. The adjustment to wooden bats is tough, especially for high school players, so the Rays will certainly exercise lots of patience.
Malm is also young, so he is most likely not the answer is Pena departs. /the Rays may have another interesting option in Matt Sweeney. Sweeney came to the Rays in the Scott Kazir trade and is still listed as a third base prospect. With Evan Longoria, though, third base seems to be locked down for the Rays for quite a while.
Sweeney is also a left handed batting high school draftee. Sweeney is a power hitter with a slightly lofted swing. Last season, between three teams he had nine home runs and 44 RBIs. This season, between Charlotte and Montgomery, he is batting .224 with seven home runs and 36 RBI. Sweeney injured his ankle two years ago, and is said to have lost a slight bit of confidence since then. He seems to be slowly adjusting to AA Montgomery. Scouts project his defensive abilities as more fitting for first base. Though the Rays are keeping him at third for now, word is he is bound for first base. Sweeney is also at least a year away, but shows nice potential.
Rafael Soriano
For the first time in many years, the Rays have a legitimate closer. The Rays acquired Soriano in a trade on December 11, 2009, and signed him to a one year deal for $7.25 million the same day. While not an established closer before 2009 was really the only other year Soriano got to act as the closer regularly – he had 27 that season), Soriano has certainly gotten the job done for the Rays this season. As of tonight, he has 23 saves in 24 opportunities, 29 strike outs in 32.2 innings pitched, a 1.65 ERA, but most impressively, a 0.83 WHIP.
Soriano features a fastball that can touch the upper 90’s, a good slider, and a decent change. Scouts say he has a very live arm. The downside, though, is that he is injury prone, and can give up too many home runs.
Prediction: I’ll be honest, I’ve got no idea how this one may play out. Expense is of course an issue, and one must wonder how good the front office will feel letting a closer be one of the team’s highest paid players, were they to resign him. He fits well, though, and Tampa can’t possibly continue with the luck they have in finding kids like Balfour who suddenly become effective closers. Having an anchor at the back of the bullpen should allow those relievers to become more effective, honestly.
The Rays owner also said today that “money is no object” when it comes to winning this season. Perhaps if that attitude brings results, there will be more money to spend next season as well, and Soriano becomes affordable.
The Ray’s system has a smattering of players who have acted as closer. The saves leader, with nine, is Winston Abreu. Abreu is 33, so it is unlikely that he is being groomed to take over the position. Three other players have three saves or less.
In 2008, the Rays made effective use of a “closer by committee” once Percival went down after 28 saves. Wheeler, Balfour, Howell, Miller and Hammel all chipped in with 13, 4, 3, 2 and 2 apiece. This was effective, but proved troubling in the postseason. The pressure there is unlike any other, and ultimately it was David Price who had to step in and shut the door on the Red Sox to close out game 7.
In 2009, the Rays got six from Percival, 17 from Howell, five from Choate, four from Balfour, and two each from Cormier and Wheeler. Pitchers like having a defined role. I am well aware of all the computer data compiled by Bill James showing that almost any pitcher can hold a 3 run lead and get 3 outs. I think that ignores the human element of stress. I think it also ignores the mentality needed, and the fact that a save isn’t always coming into the game to start the ninth with a three run lead. Sometimes it is with the bases loaded in the eighth with two outs, and a one run lead.
Ultimately, I think a team needs a closer, and I think Tampa acknowledges that (hence the trade for and signing of Soriano). Given how effective he has made the rest of the bullpen, Tampa will continue to try to use one closer. While they may not have an immediate viable option in their system, there is always a trade, and there is always the chance they could resign Soriano.
Conclusion: With s stacked farm system, a young, incredible pitching staff (Tampa’s oldest starter is 28), they are here to stay. This is no longer a team that just figured out how to win. They now know how to do it. There sweep of the Red Sox proves that they can play at a very high level, and they will continue to. It is just a question of which young phenoms end up taking the field next year.
Should the All Star Game determine World Series home advantage?
No. This is one of the most embarrassing aspects of baseball. The All-Star game, once a vaunted and celebrated event, might be one of the biggest jokes in professional sports. The fans get to pick the starting lineup? Seriously? I must have somehow slept through the year Selig declared the “All-Star Game” officially my “high school prom court.” Turn your TV on to a baseball game. Look at the crowd. That shirtless, keg bellied guy with paint on his bald scalp and hairy stomach? He’s going to go home and cast his 25 votes tonight. And every night after that. And you know someone like that won’t be analyzing OPS, VORP, win shares added or even the simple stats like RBIs and batting average. No. He votes for his favorite player, who he sees on the Sportscenter highlight reels the most.
It’s bad enough America has to deal with those fools from Ohio and Florida deciding presidential elections each year. Why does Joe “painted body” Hotdog get to pick who the All-Star players are? Perhaps baseball has someone more qualified to offer for selection . . .
Also worth noting is this – for some reason escaping understanding, each team must have representation at the game. Forgetting the entirely unfounded and unsubstantiated premise that this suggests each team is somehow at least on par with all the others, it will most likely deny other far more deserving players. Do we really believe that the Oakland Athletics deserve representation at the game this year? Are we really ready for that to mean that Andy Pettitte or Phil Hughes has to stay home?
Or worse – this must be the Atlanta Braves’ nightmare. Yadier Molina is at the plate, facing Mariano Rivera in the ninth, two out, down a run, with Jose Reyes on third. Do the Braves rest their home field advantage hopes on this scenario? Should they have to?
Why Stephen Strasburg should have been an All-Star.
By now, everyone knows the stats. He set a record for the most strikeouts in the first five appearances. 48 strikeouts in 31.2 innings pitched. A BB/K ratio of 7/48. A .217 batting average against. Fourteen strikeouts and no walks in his major league debut. A record of 2-2. And ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.01. He has started five games.
Proponents of Strasburg in the All-Star game will argue his stats. The BB/K ration and WHIP in particular are strong points substantiating this young man making the All-Star roster. They will note his plus fastball, which touches 100 (oh, and it has ridiculous movement), his filthy curveball, and his 90 mph changeup, which seems almost unhittable. In Strasburg, baseball not only has a new ticket selling phenomenon, but an incredibly hyped pitcher who is actually living up to or exceeding his expectations.
Opponents of this idea will most often cite his limited experience. How can he be an All-Star if he has only had five starts? He hasn’t even been in the big leagues half a season, they say, surely there are people with more seniority who are also as deserving.
In light of that argument, it is worth reviewing the circumstances under which Strasburg’s career path began. In spring training, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said they would make a decision on Strasburg that allowed the Nationals to put their best competitive team on the field. Naturally, that meant Strasburg went to AA. (Wait, something doesn’t add up . . .) Listen, I will be the first person to advocate for bringing pitchers along slowly. In fact, I think they should be prohibited from pitching in the bigs in their first season. However, don’t sell your fans a bridge.
The Nationals sent Strasburg to AA for “development”? What, precisely, was developed in those five AA starts? Nothing but expectations. Strasburg wasn’t put in a single situation that tested him! The five in AAA? Are we to believe those twenty-five days are when Strasburg mastered that change-up? I’m not buying it. It is time for someone to finally say, out loud, that the Nationals pulled the same nonsense with Strasburg that the Tampa Bay Rays pulled with Evan Longoria. (This issue will be addressed in a later post in greater detail.) By bringing him up later, the Nationals retain control of Strasburg for a year longer. So please, sell it to your fans as keeping him longer, not “development.” That’s being dishonest to your fans.
But back to the point – why punish Strasburg for a managerial decision he has no control over? He has been phenomenal – one of the best pitchers since he has come up. Some commentators are talking about needing more time to “earn” your way on to the team. (Setting aside the point that letting idiot fans vote players on isn’t the players “earning” anything . . .) If your talent is All-Star caliber, then you deserve to make the All-Star team. Other pitchers deserve it more; Halladay, Jiminez, among others, but Strasburg deserves a spot. He shouldn’t suffer because owners wanted to keep him a year longer.
More importantly, though, that is the point of the All-Star game? Is it to have the best talent in the major leagues get together to play a game? If that’s the case, let Strasburg pitch an inning. He is surely one of the best talent in the National League. Is it to make money on a dog and pony circus show? (Perhaps by . . . letting fans vote for the starting lineup? And making it the deciding factor in which league gets home field advantage for the World Series? You get the point . . .) If that is the case, perhaps there is someone more deserving. Is Barnum or Bailey available to pitch that night?
As a closing point, it is worth noting that this kid is so humble, he would be embarrassed this discussion is even going on. He doesn’t want special treatment he says. But he deserves this.
Tampa Bay
There are two ways to sum up Tampa Bay’s recent and continued success as a baseball team. One is a brilliant scouting organization that got leveraged into careful draft selection, coupled with an excellent player development program and a manager whose personality best fits the team, its philosophy and its approach. The other is that there is no way you can suck that bad for that long and not stumble into boatloads of talent given the makeup of the amateur draft.
I mean, seriously: Carl Crawford, David Price, B.J. Upton, and Evan Longoria (not to mention the departed top draft picks of Josh Hamilton and Delmon Young).
After today’s comeback against the Red Sox, the Rays are in second place in the American League East. The Red Sox are in third, 2 ½ games behind the Yankees, who are in first. The AL East has become a dogfight. It looked early on to only be the Yankees and Rays, but the Red Sox mounted an impressive comeback, one that has continued, at least so far, through eight key players being on the DL.
By now, the incredible turn around the Rays made between 2007 and 2008 is well chronicled. 96 losses in 2007 to 97 wins in 2008, and a spot in the World Series. Of course, after losing that series the Rays won only 85 games in 2009 and missed the playoffs, but they proved to the world that the Rays of 2008 were not a fluke. Tampa Bay is indeed a team to be reckoned with. The Rays spent much of the first half of the season in first place, so it is clear that they are in the thick of it again. “But for how long?” one must ask. Granted, the Rays had many years with high picks in the draft, and they made spectacular use of them. But some of the Rays’ best talent is reaching either free agency or arbitration eligible years.
Scott Kazmir, for example, was becoming far too expensive for the Rays. They traded him last August for an excellent return: Alex Torres, a left hander who Baseball America ranks as the number 9 prospect in the Rays’ system now; Matt Sweeny. A left handed hitting third baseman (who projects decent power numbers) ranked by Baseball America as the number 24 prospect in the Rays’ system; and Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez plays second base for the Rays now. In 64 games so far, he is batting .281 with a .314 OBP. Rodriguez also has six steals and 29 RBIs.
Kazmir is the wins and innings pitched leader for Tampa Bay. Amid growing concerns about his command and cost, though, Tampa shipped him to Anaheim. Kazmir made $6 million in 2009, and was set to make $8 million in 2010. With Tampa’s payroll constraints, Kazmir’s salary was going to be tough to manage. The team got a very good return, and Kazmir’s control problems have continued. Kazmir ended last season with a 60/117 BB.K ratio. This season projects to be slightly worse; just past the halfway point his BB/K ratio is 41/55. (Kazmir is also 3rd in the majors in walks allowed.) Furthermore, his WHIP is an unimpressive 1.56.
Upcoming Tampa Free Agents:
Carl Crawford
It seems every time I turn on ESPN these days, they are talking about LeBron James. I don’t expect Crawford to be a free agent of THAT magnitude, but you can bet he will draw heavy interest. At the start of this season, I assumed Crawford was all but being fit for Yankee pinstripes. Crawford is such a phenomenal athlete and such a star; this has the feel of one of those stars the Yankees just can’t pass up. Then I remembered not everyone only plays for the money. This may especially true with Crawford, who has close ties to his team. Crawford broke into the big leagues with Rays in 2002, and has grown with the team as the team has grown with him. This will be a fascinating winter. Imagine how torn Crawford must feel. Now that the team he helped build is proving it can win on a regular basis, I assume there is a deep sense of loyalty pulling him to stay. Yet there must be the money draw. Crawford is set to make $10 million this season, though it could rise to $11.5 with the built-in escalators.
Keeping in mind at just how high Tampa’s payroll will jump with arbitration eligible players (they have 10 players who are arbitration eligible after the 2010 season), this numbers game complicates the matter further. Tampa has a record high (for them) 72 million payroll this year. Last year’s market was interesting. There were not many marquee names, and owners were insisting on penny pinching. The top two left fielders were miles apart in their contracts. Matt Holliday, the top free agent, signed for seven years and $120 million. That is an annual average of $17 million and change a year. Jason Bay, the number two free agent, signed for four years and 66 million, for an average annual value of $16.5 million.
Prediction: There is no way Crawford stays. He will command a contract around 6 years, $18-$20 million a year (perhaps more). There will be an aggressive bidding war. Too many teams need his speed and his defense. The Rays will make a concerted effort, for sure, but cannot afford the price tag Crawford will command.
Ray’s Recover: Desmond Jennings may make Rays fans forget about Crawford very quickly. As the top Rays’ Baseball America prospect, Jennings has a high ceiling. Jennings is set to break into the show in 2011 (and just in time given Crawford’s expected departure). Even more exciting for Rays fans is this: Jennings may even be an upgrade from Crawford.
Jennings has incredible speed, and it is combined with good power. Between AA and AAA last year he had 52 stolen bases. His slugging percentage was .491. This season, those numbers are 20 stolen bases with 2 caught stealing, and a .423 slugging percentage. More impressive, though, is his OBP. Which is .371 this season, and was .419 last season at AAA. Adding to his impressive resume, Jennings was the only minor leaguer to have 50 extra base hits and steal 50 bases last season. Baseball America lauds his plate discipline, and notes that with his speed, power is secondary. He gets on base often, and with his base-stealing ability, a single could easily become a double whenever Jennings chooses. This speed also helps his defensive range, which is listed at gap to gap as a center fielder. Some speculate that Jennings is so strong defensively that when he arrives in the bigs, Upton will move to a corner position.
Carlos Pena
Pena has found an incredible home and career resurgence in Tampa. Starting in 2001, Pena went from Texas to Detroit, with time at Oakland and Boston before landing in Tampa in 2007. His power numbers took off that year, as he hit 46 homers and slugged .627 with an OPS of 1.038. His next two years saw a drop in average, but his home runs and slugging percentage stayed fairly high, at 31 and 39 and .494 and .537 respectively. This year is not as eye popping. Tampa’s Joe Madden thinks Pena might be pressing. He is in the walk year of his contract, so he probably feels tremendous pressure. Pena does have 16 homers, but eight of those came in early July when he hit six in six straight games. He is currently hitting .201. His slugging percentage is down to .402 and his OBP is an uncharacteristically low .316.
Pena is making $10.125 million this season, the last of a three year contract. Albert Pujols will unquestionably headline the 2011 free agent class. Adam Dunn is also in the group of 2011 potential free agents, so the market value of Pena’s contract is difficult to guess at this point. A wild unscientific guess would put Pujols in the $20 million + range, 4-6 years. Given Pena’s age, and his decline so far this season, he might not get higher than a three year contract. I would even venture 1-2, $10-13 million. As with Crawford, it seems unlikely that Tampa will swing such a high contract.
I think it is in Pena’s best interests to stay; even if it meant something like a two to three year deal for $ 16 or $24 million. Tampa is the only place he has found career success, and he seems to fit well with the personality of the club, a characteristic many free agents seem to ignore. Why not stay and play where one has found success and comfort? Before the start of the season, Pena expressed his love for Tampa and his desire to stay with a long term contract. I am not sure if a long term deal is in the cars, especially with Pena’s advanced age (as compared to a very young rest of the team) and the trend in shorter contracts. Especially with Pena’s price tag, and all the talent coming up through the Rays; system, any more than three years would be surprising to me.
The X-factor in all of this is Scott Boras. Perhaps, when there is a slow news day, I will devote an entire post to my feelings on Scott Boras. They are too numerous to go into now. Surely, though, you can expect that Boras will be in Pena’s ear, like the cartoon small devil that sits on the shoulder of a character attempting to make a decision, whispering about how much money Pena deserves. Boras will run the negotiations to the very end, and will try and squeeze every dollar possible out of the deal. Don’t be surprised if the famous “mystery bidder” (how in the world do teams continue to fall for that, by the way?) shows up in the process.
Prediction: Pena will want to resign with Tampa, but he will want almost twice as many years as the Rays are willing to give him. Boras gets in Pena’s ear about how much money and years he is worth (keep in mind this is an agent who tried to get Johnny Damon a 7 year contract last offseason) and confuses the situation. Pena will not get the years or money he wants anywhere, but a second team offers more money, which Boras somehow convinces Pena to take. At that point, Pena’s lack of comfort leads to lack of confidence, and his numbers plummet.
Tampa’s response/replacement:
Jeff Malm was drafted in the fifth round out of high school by the rays. He has a nice left handed stroke (which might be a plus – a left handed bat to replace Pena’s in the lineup, eventually) and can play slightly above average defense. In high school, Malm tied a national high school record with 277 career hits, though scouts have raised some questions about how his power will translate to wooden bats. He is currently considered an average power prospect, though there is potential for more. Malm only played in 7 games for the Gulf Coast Rays last season, with 25 at bats. There is a limited sample size, then, with which to judge him. Malm batted .240 with a .296 OBP.
This season, with the Princeton Rays, Malm is still having troubles. In 47 at bats he is hitting .149 with an OBP of .245. The adjustment to wooden bats is tough, especially for high school players, so the Rays will certainly exercise lots of patience.
Malm is also young, so he is most likely not the answer is Pena departs. /the Rays may have another interesting option in Matt Sweeney. Sweeney came to the Rays in the Scott Kazir trade and is still listed as a third base prospect. With Evan Longoria, though, third base seems to be locked down for the Rays for quite a while.
Sweeney is also a left handed batting high school draftee. Sweeney is a power hitter with a slightly lofted swing. Last season, between three teams he had nine home runs and 44 RBIs. This season, between Charlotte and Montgomery, he is batting .224 with seven home runs and 36 RBI. Sweeney injured his ankle two years ago, and is said to have lost a slight bit of confidence since then. He seems to be slowly adjusting to AA Montgomery. Scouts project his defensive abilities as more fitting for first base. Though the Rays are keeping him at third for now, word is he is bound for first base. Sweeney is also at least a year away, but shows nice potential.
Rafael Soriano
For the first time in many years, the Rays have a legitimate closer. The Rays acquired Soriano in a trade on December 11, 2009, and signed him to a one year deal for $7.25 million the same day. While not an established closer before 2009 was really the only other year Soriano got to act as the closer regularly – he had 27 that season), Soriano has certainly gotten the job done for the Rays this season. As of tonight, he has 23 saves in 24 opportunities, 29 strike outs in 32.2 innings pitched, a 1.65 ERA, but most impressively, a 0.83 WHIP.
Soriano features a fastball that can touch the upper 90’s, a good slider, and a decent change. Scouts say he has a very live arm. The downside, though, is that he is injury prone, and can give up too many home runs.
Prediction: I’ll be honest, I’ve got no idea how this one may play out. Expense is of course an issue, and one must wonder how good the front office will feel letting a closer be one of the team’s highest paid players, were they to resign him. He fits well, though, and Tampa can’t possibly continue with the luck they have in finding kids like Balfour who suddenly become effective closers. Having an anchor at the back of the bullpen should allow those relievers to become more effective, honestly.
The Rays owner also said today that “money is no object” when it comes to winning this season. Perhaps if that attitude brings results, there will be more money to spend next season as well, and Soriano becomes affordable.
The Ray’s system has a smattering of players who have acted as closer. The saves leader, with nine, is Winston Abreu. Abreu is 33, so it is unlikely that he is being groomed to take over the position. Three other players have three saves or less.
In 2008, the Rays made effective use of a “closer by committee” once Percival went down after 28 saves. Wheeler, Balfour, Howell, Miller and Hammel all chipped in with 13, 4, 3, 2 and 2 apiece. This was effective, but proved troubling in the postseason. The pressure there is unlike any other, and ultimately it was David Price who had to step in and shut the door on the Red Sox to close out game 7.
In 2009, the Rays got six from Percival, 17 from Howell, five from Choate, four from Balfour, and two each from Cormier and Wheeler. Pitchers like having a defined role. I am well aware of all the computer data compiled by Bill James showing that almost any pitcher can hold a 3 run lead and get 3 outs. I think that ignores the human element of stress. I think it also ignores the mentality needed, and the fact that a save isn’t always coming into the game to start the ninth with a three run lead. Sometimes it is with the bases loaded in the eighth with two outs, and a one run lead.
Ultimately, I think a team needs a closer, and I think Tampa acknowledges that (hence the trade for and signing of Soriano). Given how effective he has made the rest of the bullpen, Tampa will continue to try to use one closer. While they may not have an immediate viable option in their system, there is always a trade, and there is always the chance they could resign Soriano.
Conclusion: With s stacked farm system, a young, incredible pitching staff (Tampa’s oldest starter is 28), they are here to stay. This is no longer a team that just figured out how to win. They now know how to do it. There sweep of the Red Sox proves that they can play at a very high level, and they will continue to. It is just a question of which young phenoms end up taking the field next year.
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