Trade Deadline Talk

As the non-waiver trade deadline approaches, speculation will run wild about which teams are buying, which teams are selling, and who is going to be traded. The Yankees have the best record in baseball, and it is safe to assume they will be buying. Speculation several weeks ago had Cashman shopping for another bat, but with the resurgence of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, that now seems less likely.
Given Joba Chamberlain’s recent struggles, and the overall lack on confidence in parts of the bullpen this season, a bullpen arm is a likely target. The most interesting thing, though, may be the clear sign of lack of faith in all five starters the Cliff Lee trade talk shows. (Given AJ Burnett’s tantrum this afternoon, forcing him to leave after 2 + innings, the lack of predictability was only further entrenched.) This post will speculate on potential targets for the trade deadline. Where possible, I may amuse myself with speculation of who may be traded. I warn you, though, I have no experience, so be prepared to laugh. Some may be close, some may just be laugh till you cry preposterous. Whichever they become for you, I hope you enjoy.

Bullpen Fix?
Relievers are generally inconsistent. The bridge to Rivera needs to be firm for the Yankees front office and Yankees fans to feel safe with a lead, and it is not, at the moment, exactly the model of consistency. Joba has struggled to hold leads recently. Given the way that he has been tossed back and forth from the ‘pen to a starter and back to the ‘pen again, I am not surprised. A young kid can say all he wants about doing whatever the team needs him to do, but this jostling has clearly affected his confidence. And who wouldn’t feel the same way?
If I were Cashman, I would stay within the organization. Relievers are tough to nail down. They are often inconsistent, and a good year once, or in one park, does not promise that reliever will remain good at his role for any period of time. Mid innings relievers and set-up men are often sold at enormously high prices at the trade deadline. This is not due to talent, but due to market economics. Teams in contention might feel the need to shore up the bullpen, and teams with solid relievers who are sellers take advantage of a pressing need by hiking up prices by way of prospects. If there is a way for a bullpen to be bolstered by looking within the organization, it should be done. (1) It is manageable in terms of price. It costs nothing, as there is no trade. As the player being brought up is likely already on the 40 man roster, it also costs nothing in terms of payroll. (2) While relievers are unpredictable, using a man form within the system makes it less unpredictable. The layer development staff and internal scouting departments all have a good handle on the player’s capabilities, weaknesses, and how to fix him when something goes wrong.

Phil Hughes:
This is a terrible idea. There is talk that some in the front office might want to try the same thing with Phil Hughes. Hughes has an innings limit, speculated to be around 180, which will approach by seasons’ end. The thought is that moving Hughes to the ‘pen will ensure he does not reach that limit. The same officials believe that Hughes will again be the dominant reliever he was last year.
Why this is a terrible ideal:
Hughes has been an incredible starter this year. He is 11-2, one of three Yankee starters with a good chance at winning 20 games. His WHIP is good, at 1.18. He has 91 strikeouts in 101 innings, with only 29 BB. His batting average against is .239, and his ERA is 3.65. Hughes has shown increased command of his fastball, particularly his cutter, and he has returned to using the 2-seamer he used so well in 2007 before he went down with injury. His curve remains above average if not good, and his changeup has come a long way. It is now almost a plus major league pitch.
When discussing Hughes, it is often forgotten that he is still quite young. Hughes is still only 24 and still developing. This year has been impressive; there is no question about it. Hughes has shown that he is capable of being the mid to front starter that Cashman and the Yankees believed he could be when they refused to trade him for Santana. But he still has a ways to go. Moving Hughes to the ‘pen and subjecting him to the same undefined role nonsense as Chamberlain would risk ruining all that Hughes has accomplished in the last two years.
The innings limit is a concern for me only when it gets to the end of the year, or the post season. Hughes has around 80 innings left if the guesses on his limit are accurate. That should last him, however, until September 1st, when rosters expand. While it would be ideal to have Hughes in the postseason rotation if he continues to pitch this way, only four starters are needed in the postseason, so the rotation could conceivably survive, though not in its strongest possible form (based on performance in the season thus far).
Hughes is a starter and will be a starter next year. He should stay a starter to make it easier on everyone, especially himself and the pitching coaches. Why try and toss a player still developing between two jobs? It takes long enough to learn one, let alone two.

My Pick: Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo spent parts of 2008 and 2009 with the Yankees. He struggled with some injury problems, but has seen an incredible resurgence this year. So far this year he has appeared in 40 games pitching 45.2 innings. He has allowed only 25 hits. His ERA is 0.99. Albaladejo’s BAA is .156. He leads all of AAA in saves with 30. His BB/K ratio is a very impressive 12/60. His command has clearly improved. With numbers like those, in fact, one wonders why he hasn’t received a call up already. Given his save numbers, Albaladejo clearly has no problem pitching in pressure packed situations. The Yankees should turn to him rather than trade should Joba lose his 8th inning job.

The Starter Situation
Don’t get me wrong – the Yankees’ staff has been impressive so far this season. They are, in fact, in the top three in the American League in ERA, quality starts, WHIP, K/9, and batting average against. But Javier Vazquez is a question mark, even with his recent improvements. AJ Burnett hurt his hand tonight throwing a tantrum in the clubhouse after the second inning. And the Cliff Lee trade proved that some in the front office don’t have full confidence in the staff, or at the very least that the Yankees know they can upgrade; even on an already impressive staff. Here, in no particular order, are the potential candidates the Yankees may target in the next two weeks:

Ricky Nolasco:
The word out tonight is that the Yankees had scouts at the Florida-Arizona game a week ago in which Nolasco faced Dan Haren. It is not clear which pitcher they were there to scout; it may have been both.
Nolasco is a strikeout pitcher, which is always a plus in Yankee Stadium. The ball can fly there, so anyone who can keep the ball on the ground or off bats is going to do pretty well. Nolasco is known to be a little inconsistent at times – he can struggle with his mechanics (and control, of course, as a result) and he is also injury prone. Nolasco has mostly projected as a mid-rotation starter with a plus fastball, a strong slider (that interestingly enough he holds as a hybrid – Mike Mussina’s knucklecurve grip, but on the seams the way Andy Pettitte holds his curve) and a decent change and splitter.
This year, Nolasco has not been plagued by the control problems he has been known to have. His K/BB ratio is an impressive 102/23. The rest of his numbers, though, are more pedestrian. In 116.0 innings pitched he has allowed 128 hits. His BAA is .280 and his WHIP is 1.30. Nolasco has also been plagued a bit by homeritis – he has given up 20 this season. His ERA is 4.66.
Nolasco is young, though, and relatively cheap, money wise, at least. He is arbitration eligible the next two years. For 2010, he in on a one year contract worth $3.8 million. Yankee manager Joe Girardi is very familiar with Nolasco – he managed him in 2006.
At four games under .500, and 9.5 games back in the NL East race, the Marlins may well be sellers leading up to the deadline. It would certainly be a feat to overcome the Phillies Braves and Mets to become contenders. Uggla will certainly be the most sought-after player on the Marlins, on whom they would get an excellent return. Cantu may also draw some interest. A trade with the Yankees, though, for Nolasco, may center around Montero. I say this not because Montero may be the centerpiece of almost any trade (though that may well be true) but because it makes perfect sense for the Marlins.
The Marlins lack a good major league catcher. Ronny Paulino does not project as more than a solid backup catcher. His bat is decent, showing some power. He has solid defensive skills, but there are questions about his ability to throw out runners. Montero would be a significant upgrade, even with his defensive questions. A team as young as Florida would not be crippled by a young developing catcher in the second half of this season. It would ac tually be perfect for Montero to get used to calling a big league game, and the Florida pitching staff, to prime the team for more success next year in a full season. Such a trade would obviously involve more pieces (perhaps Slade Heathcott? Florida lacks any depth at left field. Though Heathcott is a center fielder, he could surely add depth to an outfield depth chart, ot move himself), Montero is a solid centerpiece.

Dan Haren
Dan Haren is going to be one of the hottest topics leading to the deadline, and Arizona will take advantage. Haren is a great competitor, who will most likely enjoy the chance to play on a winning team; one that is not 19.5 games out of first place.
Haren rarely walks batters. His K/BB rate this season is 27/133. Given his impeccable control, he is prone to get hit, and hit hard. This is because he is always so close to the plate. This season he has given up 155 hits in 135 innings pitched, 21 of those being home runs. His WHIP is 1.35, his BAA is .287, and his ERA is 4.60. Despite all that, Haren is now one of the most sought after pitchers with Cliff Lee off the market. Rumor has it, though, that Arizona would have to be “blown away” by an offer. He may not be worth the price in prospects. The Detroit Tigers seem to be the most mentioned destination for Haren. Given his prowess, Haren is still surprisingly affordable at $8.25 million. He is under contract for the next two years at $12.5 million each, with a club option in 2013 for $15.5 million. This incredibly cheap contract for someone of Haren’s talent is most likely the reason Arizona would have to be blown away by a trade offer.

Fausto Carmona
Carmona has enjoyed a revival of sorts this year. His record may not show, playing for the Indians, but Carmona is back to his olf self, the one who won 19 games in 2007. Carmona’s ERA is down to 3.65. He has only allowed 113 hits in 123.1 innings pitched. His BAA against is .248 and his WHIP is 1.31. He has suffered a little with his control, as his BB/K ratio is 49/64. That clearly has not hurt him too much. Most impressive, though, is that he has only allowed 7 home runs.
The low home run total is undoubtedly due to Carmona’s ground ball tendencies. He throws a low to mid-90’s sinker, along with a hard slider and a changeup. He has good control of the latter two pitches, though they are often near the strike zone and not in it. When batters do not chase his off-speed stuff is when he struggles with his command. Carmona throws his fastball 75% of the time, mostly hand side of the plate. It gets results though, even when he struggles early in starts, as most sinkerballers do.
Carmona is under contract through next year, with three option years after that. This year he is due $4.9 million, next year $6.1 million, then $7, $9, and $12 million for the option years. The Indians have invested a bunch of time and effort into Carmona, though, especially after his bad 2008 campaign. One also must consider whether or not Cleveland will be willing to let another solid top of the rotation guy get away. The team would almost certainly want a bounty in return, even though Carmona isn’t in the same league as Sabathia and Lee.
The Indians, though, wildly underperformed last year after being expected to seriously contend. A glance at their depth chart shows a need in almost every area. This is especially true in the closer spot, as Wood has just gone on the DL again. I really think there is no way to predict a trade price on this one unless one owns a crystal ball or actually works in the Cleveland front office.

Carl Pavano
No, I didn’t even write that with a straight face. But given how well he is pitching, wouldn’t that be funny? I think there would be riots.

Roy Oswalt
I’ll preface this by saying I think Oswalt is too much of a country boy to ever want to play in New York. But is is worth exploring. Oswalt, as always, has been phenomenal this year. In 120.0 innings pitched he has only allowed 93 hits. He has a BB/K ratio of 33/112, with a brilliant WHIP of 1.05 and a BAA of .213, His ERA is 3.08. He has only allowed 11 home runs. That may make him ideal for Yankee Stadium, if only he wanted to play in a big city.
Oswalt is known for his sniper like control and his durability. With his full no trade clause, it will be really interesting to watch Oswalt balance his desire to finally win with his small town roots. One of his favorite parts about the Astros was the owner, McLane’s, connection to his small town roots. Nothing about New York City or the Yankees screams small town roots. Nor does Hal Steinbrenner strike me as the type of guy to purchase Roy a tractor should he win 20 games two straight years, as McLane did.
Eventually, though, every true competitor wants a chance to win. Will Oswalt instruct the Astros to send him to a big city if it means a chance to contend for a few years? He certainly deserves the chance. He is owed $15 million this year, and $16 million next year. There is a club option for 2012 at $16 million, with a $2 million buyout.
Given what Oswalt has meant to the Astros franchise, the price will most likely start staggeringly high. Since Oswalt requested a trade, that price may begin to plummet as the trading deadline approaches. Oswalt may raise hell if he has to suffer through another losing season in the Texas heat and wait until winter to make the move.