Boston's Rotation -- A Crazy Idea

It is a strange season indeed when the Boston Red Sox outfield currently consists of Ryan Kalish, Eric Patterson, and J.D. Drew. This should change today, of course, as Jacoby Ellsbury is expected to be activated after going 7-14 in his rehab stint in Triple-A Pawtucket. The injury bug has hit Boston long and hard this year, with first baseman Kevin Youkilis being the most recent addition to the Disabled List. It has forced the team to play with an admirable grit for far too long. They do not complain; they approach each day expecting to win and they have admirable fortitude as they watch teammate after teammate fall.

Their combined resolution to come back healthy is also beyond admirable. I am at a loss for words to adequately express how blown away I am by Dustin Pedroia’s dedication. He wants to play so badly, he hits off a tee sitting on a chair, and takes ground balls on his knees. That’s dedication.

The pitching staff has suffered injury problems too. Daisuke Matsuzaka started the season on the disabled list, and didn’t make his first start until May 1st. He was also on the DL from June 8th to June 25th. Josh Beckett was on the DL from May 15th to July 23rd. Clay Bucholtz was on the DL from July 5th to July 21st. That Boston was carrying a sixth starter in Tim Wakefield proved to be very useful.

One of the most admirable aspects of Boston’s roster is their professionalism. They work hard each day, but in a town where media follows the team’s every move, clubhouse problems are kept in house. Wakefield was visibly upset when Matauzaka was activated and Wakefield was sent to the ‘pen. Wakefield has been a starter most of his career, and, perhaps understandably, got sent to the ‘pen for a pitcher who then struggled for the next month: 5.77 ERA in May, 21/25 BB/K ratio.

Wakefield’s commitment to the team, though, kept him from airing his feelings publically. It doesn’t take an expert to figure out Wake is pissed. He is the longest tenured member of the Red Sox. He has given his heart and soul to the team. He has done everything they have asked from him, including go to the bullpen in a year in which he clearly wants to start. Matsuzaka has turned it around a little, with a 3.64 ERA in July, but he has still struggled with his command, posting a 13/24 BB/K ratio. Beckett as abysmal in May, but has improved since coming back from the DL. Lester has improved to great from a slow start. Bucholtz has been fantastic. Lackey has been a huge disappointment. His numbers are not as bad as they could be, but they still so not sing “I am worth $18.7 million dollars.” His ERA on the season is 4.48, but only thanks to a two month run in June and July where he had a sub-4 ERA. He got lit up on Monday by the Indians, giving up 6 runs in 5.1 innings of work. Control has clearly been a problem all season – he has a 55/88 BB/K ratio. Wakefield hasn’t been great as a starter – he had a 28/59 BBK ratio. He posted a .270average against and .323 OBP against as a starter, versus .222 and .280 as a reliever. But he is furious.

Given the random struggles of three of the starting five, and Wakefield’s silent indignation, this post will float a fairly crazy, yet interesting-for-debate issue out there: Boston should use a six man rotation.

History:

If you are like me, you were born into the five man rotation generation, and for part of your life assumed it had always been a five man rotation. If you are like me, it is not until you started to do research recently that you found out the five man rotation came about much later than you expected.

By now, this year, unless you live under a rock, you know that this year is being called a sequel of the “Year of the Pitcher” in 1968. Perhaps the name that stands out most from the 1968 season is Bob Gibson. He was the king of kings that year, winning the ERA title with a scant 1.12. 28 of his 34 starts were complete games, 13 of those shutouts. The man who faced Gibson in game 1 of the ’68 World Series, Denny McLain, won 31 games (28 of them complete games), and the AL MVP and Cy Young awards. His ERA of 1.96 was fourth in the American League. Pitchers dominated that season so much so that in 1969, Major League Baseball lowered the mound from 15 inches to 10 inches above the field.

While the two pitchers with 28 complete games seem impressive, it is important to note, for history’s sake, that this was considered an era of declining complete games (one wonders what those players must consider the era of pitchers now . . .). After the mound was lowered, the other notable adjustment in pitching began in the young Mets organization. They had a very young rotation of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Gary Gentry, Jim McAndrew, and Nolan Ryan (perhaps you’ve heard of on or two of those guys?). Of the five, Koosman was the oldest at 26. The young group had a pitching coach, Rube Walker, who was worried about the young kids throwing off the lower mound often and how it would affect their arms. He devised a plan in which they would each pitch once every five days. The five-man rotation with each pitching on four days rest worked brilliantly. Analysts believe that the move to the five man rotation (among the first of its kind) was a large factor in the Mets’ turnaround that season, going from 73-89 in 1968 to 100-62 in 1969. The Mets went all the way to stun the heavily favored Baltimore Orioles in five games in the World Series that year. The rest of the baseball began to copy the Mets’ approach of five men and four days rest. It is now so common most teams would not consider ever returning to a four man rotation for any extended period of time.

Perhaps, in honor of the second year of the pitcher, another staff should consider making such a bold, ground-breaking move again.

The Idea:

This has been floated before (so I either join the ranks of the crazies, or the ranks of the people capable of thinking slightly differently). Boston should use a six man rotation.

Immediately, it solves the Wakefield problem. You don’t want a player’s potential tantrum to drive the organizational decisions, to be sure. If the team wins, however, when the player wins too, there is really no reason not to seriously consider it.

Beckett, who has only recently turned himself around from a bad year and a half (and there is no proof it will continue yet) is much better on long rest. Beckett, in fact, gets better as the rest period gets loner. On four days’ rest (this year), Beckett has a WHIP of 1.40 and an ERA of 5.70. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.19 and an ERA of 3.90. On six days rest (career), Becket has a WHIP of 1.13 and an ERA of 2.93. The only negative to the rest is that his K/BB ratio drops slightly with each day’s rest.

Lester is almost as good on five days rest ah he is on four, but not six days rest or more. On four days’ rest (this season), Lester has a WHIP of 1.16 and an ERA of 3.07. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.28 and an ERA of 3.10. On six days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.42 and an ERA of 3.94. His K/BB ratio drops slightly from four days to five days of rest, but drops dramatically (2.43-1.68) from five days to six.

Lackey is considered to be having a bit of an off season, but is dramatically better on five days rest than four. On four days rest (this season) Lackey has a WHIP of 1.53 and an ERA of 4.48. On five days rest (career), he has a WHIP of 1.25 and an ERA of 3.61. Lackey’s K/BB ratio also goes up slightly. On six days rest, he has a WHIP of 1.39 and an ERA of 4.44. His K/BB ratio also drops slightly.

Matsuzaka is a bit of an aberration. On four days rest (this season) he has a WHIP of 1.32 and an ERA of 3.96. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.37 and an ERA of 3.62. On six days rest, he has a WHIP of 1.25 and an ERA of 3.47. Matsuzaka’s K/BB ratio goes up slightly as his rest gets longer.

Bucholtz is having a bit of a breakout season, and is not better than his career numbers on long rest. On four days rest (this season) he has a WHIP of 1.23 and an ERA of 2.59. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.53 and an ERA of 3.71. On six days rest, Bucholtz has a WHIP of 1.40 and an ERA of 3.60. His K/BB ratio ticks down slightly from four days to five, then goes up from five days to six. Neither movement is significant.

Wakefield is slightly better on four days rest than five, but gets better at six. On four days rest (this season) Wakefield has a WHIP of 1.34 and an ERA of 5.54. On five days rest (career) he has a WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 5.54. His WHIP is a little higher, and his K/BB is 2.11 compared to 1.62 on five days rest. On six days rest, his WHIP is 1.39 and an ERA of 4.20. His K/BB drops slightly, to 1.52.

For several members of Boston’s staff, five days is much better. Beckett, Lackey, and even Matsuzaka can be counted in that group. Five days rest this season would admittedly be bad for Bucholtz, but sort of a wash for Wakefield and Lester.
Implementing a six man rotation would solve the potential ego and chemistry problems with Wakefield, who is visibly upset with the demotion. It would make Beckett and Lackey, both huge financial investments, better pitchers. It would seemingly make no difference with Lester and Wakefield (in terms of rest). It may cause Bucholtz to underperform a bit, but one is better than the three that could currently be performing better on longer rest. Also, it would probably knock off a start or two, which will be good to preserve the young arms of Lester and Bucholtz. Boston should consider implementing a six man rotation.