The Hellickson Dilemma

The Rays top pitching prospect announced his presence in the major leagues with a boom last night. And was promptly returned to Triple-A Durham. Jeremy Hellickson made his major league debut Monday night against the Minnesota Twins. Hellickson impressed in seven strong innings, allowing two earned runs with six strike outs and two walks.

Reports say that Hellickson commanded the edges of the plate with impressive consistency, and that his changeup proved to be the plus pitch it is, with the late fade accounting for three of his six strikeouts. Hellickson made hitters swing and miss a lot, actually, as ESPN stats and information reported that of his 64 strikes, 16 were swings and misses. That is 25 percent, and the major league average is 15.
Numbers such as Hellickson’s would seem to be enough to at least keep him around for the season, but Tampa’s rotation is pretty set at Garza, Shields, Price, Niemann and Davis. So Tampa sent him to Triple-A. He will almost assuredly get a call up again, the question is what role he will play.

Option 1:

Option 1 is to leave Hellickson at Triple-A for the season, and allow him to continue to blossom and grow as a starter. His fastball and changeup are excellent, but his curveball could stand to get sharper. He can control it adequately, but not great. It could also be sharper. Staying in Triple-A could help with this seasoning. The Triple-A season ends well before the MLB season, though, and Tampa would be very tempted to call him up for the stretch run after the September 1st roster expansion, especially if they believe Hellickson can help in a Division title race with the Yankees or Boston or both.
Which brings us to . . .

Option 2:

Option 2 would be to call Hellickson back up and use him in the bullpen. This is tempting, to be sure. He clearly has major league ready stuff. A very effective fastball and a plus changeup (that the Twins were 1-8 on in pitches that ended the at-bat) could make him a dominating 7th or 8th inning guy.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen is certainly not terrible, but there are several places it could be upgraded. The entire bullpen has a 3.14 ERA, but two relievers are at 4.50 or higher: Lance Cormier, 4.50; and Randy Choate, 5.88. Choate is a left-handed specialist though, so even with a plus tailing change-up, Hellickson is unlikely to fill that role (Left handers are hitting only .190 against Choate this season).
The addition of Qualls also solidifies the back end of the bullpen, so there may be no discernable role for Hellickson to play, but who would say no to such a solid arm? Plus, with the absolutely unpredictability of relievers, having another excellent pitcher to count on is always a plus.

Option 3:

Option 3 is finding a way for Hellickson to start. It would be foolish for Hellickson to take up a roster spot to only spot start. It would also be foolish for him to take up a roster spot for long relief or a potential 7th or 8th inning guy. HE is on a fantastic course as a starter. He should continue that course. Joba Chamberlain should be the cautionary tale for teams who bring up a starter and watch him have success as a reliever. It could mess up the kid big time. But more on that later.

Starting pitching is the most important aspect of the game. Pitching wins ballgames. Starting pitching controls, on average, the majority of innings pitched each game. That means a starting pitcher has, arguably, a larger impact on the majority of the game. While a reliever may come in and face a tight spot to get an out or three towards the end of the game, a starter might face four or five of those scenarios (admittedly of his own making). He faces more batters (ideally, of course), gets more outs (ideally, of course) and just is in charge of keeping the ball in the park and runners off base for longer than the bullpen each game (on average and ideally).

Simply put, having a good pitcher go six innings each time he pitches is more valuable than having him pitch one or two innings in each of his appearances. Some might contend that a pitcher could pitch four or five times in a week at one inning or so an appearance, that would be just about as much as his one start, but that is not true when stretched out over the course of a season, as the above statistics show. The "pressure situations" that many relievers face when they come in are valuable, to be sure, but keeping the other team off the board for six innings is more valuabel then keeping the other team off the board for one inning. If the starter doesn't do it, someone else has to. The best pitchers are starters and closers because those spots are the most valuable. And this is a dilemma because the rotation is full, and the closer spot is taken.

The five starters make this problem what it is. Tampa probably won’t go with a six man rotation, so barring injury, Hellickson probably won’t become a regular starter for Tampa this season. He should not go to the bullpen though. For one, where would they use him? Soriano is the closer. Benoit has an unbelievable K/9 inning rate of 12.78. Two other relievers, both currently on the DL, have K/9 rates above 9 as well. Dan Wheeler’s is 9.79 and Grant Balfour’s is 9.14. Randy Chaote’s is 9.00. Their three batting average against are .198, .218, and .247.

There is, of course, something to be said for a lot of options. Many dominating arms is good for a team, especially since relievers tend to be erratic. More important, though, is Hellickson’s long term development as a prospect. He is an incredibly valuable starting pitcher. Granted, some starters have handled the transition from starter to reliever back to starter very well. Phil Hughes was dominant last year out of the ‘pen, and is solid this year, even fantastic in the first half. Some, though, lack the mental toughness and professionalism to make the transition and not be affected. Joba is a prime example. A player can say all the right things: “whatever the team needs”; “I just want to help the team”; “Whatever it takes to get to the bigs.” The front office must have one eye on the future. Hellickson may have a positive effect in a handful of games down the stretch as a reliever. Messing with his head, though, can have long term effects. Are a handful of games in September and maybe October worth a year or two of setbacks?

Tampa Bay should either do nothing with Hellickson, calling him up for a spot start or two when he is needed, or to give an extra days rest to the Rays’ staff down the stretch, or find a way to fit him into the rotation now. Making him a reliever and then returning him to a starter role is too risky for a top pitching prospect. Relievers, and prospects, are erratic. Not everyone will be able to make the transition like David Price.
An Interesting Option:

Buster Olney reported this afternoon that the Washington Nationals placed Adam Dunn on waivers. He also said that the asking price for Dunn leading up to Saturday’s non-waiver trade deadline was enormous, and not dropping. The Rays were reportedly in on Dunn, and Dunn would be an upgrade at DH for the team. Hellickson’s success could inject some confidence into the Ray’s front office. The Nationals need young, solid pitchers to join Strasburg so he is not on an island. HE can only pitch every five days. Perhaps Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann, the two back end starters, would be a good beginning to a trade package for Dunn. That would clear room for Hellickson in the rotation and upgrade the DH spot for the Rays, which they have struggled to fill productively all year.